Cancer Incidence, Stage at Diagnosis, Delays, and Mortality Trends (2015–2025)
SPENCER JONES made this Official Information request to Ministry of Health
Currently waiting for a response from Ministry of Health, they must respond promptly and normally no later than (details and exceptions).
From: SPENCER JONES
To: Te Aho o Te Kahu – Cancer Control Agency
Cc: Te Whatu Ora, Manatū Hauora, Stats NZ
Via: FYI.org.nz
Date: [Insert]
Tēnā koutou,
Given the increasing public concern about cancer incidence, access to diagnostics, workforce shortages, and delays in treatment, I request the following information under the Official Information Act 1982.
This request covers the period 1 January 2015 to the most recent data available in 2025, and applies to the following cancers (where data is available or routinely coded):
• Breast
• Colorectal
• Lung
• Prostate
• Pancreatic
• Haematological cancers (e.g., lymphoma, leukaemia)
• Any category labelled as “rare”, “aggressive”, or “rapidly progressive” cancers
⸻
1. Cancer incidence – annual totals (2015–2025)
For each year 2015–2025:
1.1 The total number of new cancer diagnoses in New Zealand.
1.2 Annual totals for each major cancer type listed above.
1.3 Annual percentage change year-on-year for each cancer type (or provide raw data so this can be calculated).
1.4 Any internal dashboards, surveillance reports, or monitoring tables used by Te Aho o Te Kahu or Te Whatu Ora to track incidence trends.
⸻
2. Stage at diagnosis (2015–2025)
For each cancer type (where recorded):
2.1 Annual numbers of cancers diagnosed at Stage 1, Stage 2, Stage 3, Stage 4, and “not staged”.
2.2 Any internal or published analysis on stage migration over time (e.g., increasing late-stage diagnoses).
2.3 Any internal risk assessments that identify factors contributing to later diagnosis.
⸻
3. Diagnostic delays (2018–2025)
Please provide any national-level data or internal reports showing:
3.1 Average and median time from GP referral to first specialist assessment (FSA).
3.2 Average and median time from FSA to diagnostic confirmation.
3.3 Number and proportion of cases breaching the Faster Cancer Treatment (FCT) timeframes:
• 62 day target
• 31 day target
3.4 Any analysis of:
• causes of diagnostic delay
• the impact of service closures, under-staffing, or workforce shortages
• regional variation in delays
If no analysis has been completed, please confirm.
⸻
4. Treatment delays and capacity (2018–2025)
For each year:
4.1 Median and average time from diagnosis to first treatment (surgery, chemo, radiation).
4.2 Number and proportion of cases breaching expected treatment timeframes.
4.3 Radiology and oncology service capacity indicators, including:
• available FTE per region
• vacancy rates
• backlog numbers
• outsourcing levels (private or overseas)
4.4 Any internal assessments of risk to cancer outcomes from staffing shortages.
⸻
5. Mortality trends (2015–2025)
For each cancer type:
5.1 Annual cancer mortality totals (2015–2024 or latest available).
5.2 Crude mortality rate per 100,000 population.
5.3 Age-standardised cancer mortality rate.
5.4 Any internal analysis discussing:
• changes in mortality trends
• excess mortality
• worsening late-stage presentation
• relationship between diagnosis delays and mortality
If such analysis does not exist, please confirm.
⸻
6. Sudden-onset, rapidly progressive, or unusually aggressive cancers
I am not requesting patient details — only aggregate data.
Please provide:
6.1 Any internal reporting or surveillance identifying increases in:
• rapidly progressive cancers
• cancers presenting with unusually short symptom-to-diagnosis intervals
• cancers classified as “high grade”, “rare”, or “unexpectedly aggressive”
6.2 Any comparison of these patterns before and after 2020.
If no such analysis exists, please state whether the agency undertakes surveillance for rapid-progression cancers.
⸻
7. Delayed diagnoses due to system strain (2020–2025)
Please provide any internal reporting or analysis that identifies:
7.1 Increases in patients presenting late because of:
• GP shortages
• reduced access to screening
• delayed referrals
• ED overcrowding
• undersupply of radiologists or oncologists
7.2 Any briefing to Ministers discussing increased cancer morbidity or mortality risk due to workforce shortages.
⸻
8. Briefings to Ministers (2020–2025)
Please provide:
• A list of all briefings, memos, or papers to Ministers or Associate Ministers relating to cancer incidence, delays, or mortality.
• For the first five documents in each category, a copy of the paper (with redactions as needed).
If providing all documents would trigger section 18(f), the list alone is sufficient for this part.
⸻
9. Format
• Please provide numerical datasets in Excel or CSV where possible.
• Documents may be provided as PDF.
• If information is held by another agency, please transfer under s14 OIA.
Kind regards,
Spencer Jones
From: hnzOIA
Tçnâ koe,
Thank you for your email. Your request has been transferred from the
Ministry of Health.
Under the Official Information Act (OIA), agencies are required to respond
to requests for official information as soon as reasonably practicable and
no later than 20 working days after receiving them.
Please note that the period from 25 December 2025 to 15 January 2026
(inclusive) is not counted as working days under the OIA. As a result, any
OIA requests received on or after 29 November 2025 may take longer to
process than usual, as the maximum response timeframe may extend into the
new year.
If your request is for data that Health NZ holds, have you checked
[1]Lighthouse first to see if the data you are seeking is already
published?
Lighthouse is a searchable catalogue that makes a range of data and
analytics products available to New Zealanders to enable easier, faster
access to insights about health services.
You can find further information about how OIA timeframes are calculated,
including the Ombudsman’s OIA calculator, at the link below:
[2]Official information calculators | Ombudsman New Zealand
We will provide a response to your request in line with the statutory
timeframes set out in the OIA.
We appreciate your understanding and patience during this time.
Ngâ mihi,
Health NZ | Te Whatu Ora
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From: hnzOIA
Kia ora Spencer
Health NZ received two requests for information from you on 2 December
2025. One was focussed on Mental Health and the other relating to Cancer.
We note that both requests ask for a significant amount of information.
In order to respond, Health NZ would need to divert personnel from their
other core duties and allocate extra time to complete this task. The
diversion of these resources would impair our ability to carry out our
other core functions. As such, your request may be refused under section
18(f) of the Official Information Act 1982 (OIA) - substantial collation
and research. We ask that you consider refining your request to the key
items you are most interested in receiving information on.
We appreciate you are under no obligation to amend your request, but
requests that require substantial collation may be refused under section
18(f) of the OIA. We want to work with you to avoid this and ensure we can
provide a response that best suits your needs.
Please let us know by the end of Friday 5 December 2025 whether you are
prepared to amend or clarify your request and if so, how.
Please note, under section 15 of the Official Information Act 1982 (OIA),
any clarification or amendments made to a request within seven days after
the date it is received, that request may be treated as a new request and
the time limit for the response restarts.
If you are not happy with this response, you have the right to make a
complaint to the Ombudsman. Information about how to do this is available
at [1]www.ombudsman.parliament.nz or by phoning 0800 802 602.
Ngā mihi
Anthea
Government Services
[2][email address]
Health New Zealand | Te Whatu Ora
Your requests:
HNZ00104144
Given the increasing public concern about cancer incidence, access to
diagnostics, workforce shortages, and delays in treatment, I request the
following information under the Official Information Act 1982.
This request covers the period 1 January 2015 to the most recent data
available in 2025, and applies to the following cancers (where data is
available or routinely coded):
• Breast
• Colorectal
• Lung
• Prostate
• Pancreatic
• Haematological cancers (e.g., lymphoma, leukaemia)
• Any category labelled as “rare”,aggressive”, or
“rapidlyprogressive” cancers
⸻
1. Cancer incidence – annual totals (2015–2025)
For each year 2015–2025:
1.1 The total number of new cancer diagnoses in New Zealand.
1.2 Annual totals for each major cancer type listed above.
1.3 Annual percentage change year-on-year for each cancer type (or provide
raw
data so this can be calculated).
1.4 Any internal dashboards, surveillance reports, or monitoring tables
used by
Te Aho o Te Kahu or Te Whatu Ora to track incidence trends.
⸻
2. Stage at diagnosis (2015–2025)
For each cancer type (where recorded):
2.1 Annual numbers of cancers diagnosed at Stage 1, Stage 2, Stage 3,
Stage 4,and “not staged”.
2.2 Any internal or published analysis on stage migration over time
(e.g.,increasing late-stage diagnoses).
2.3 Any internal risk assessments that identify factors contributing to
later diagnosis.
⸻
3. Diagnostic delays (2018–2025)
Please provide any national-level data or internal reports showing:
3.1 Average and median time from GP referral to first specialist
assessment
(FSA).
3.2 Average and median time from FSA to diagnostic confirmation.
3.3 Number and proportion of cases breaching the Faster Cancer Treatment
(FCT)
timeframes:
• 62 day target
• 31 day target
3.4 Any analysis of:
• causes of diagnostic delay
• the impact of service closures, under-staffing, or
workforce
shortages
• regional variation in delays
If no analysis has been completed, please confirm.
⸻
4. Treatment delays and capacity (2018–2025)
For each year:
4.1 Median and average time from diagnosis to first treatment (surgery,
chemo,radiation).
4.2 Number and proportion of cases breaching expected treatment
timeframes.
4.3 Radiology and oncology service capacity indicators, including:
• available FTE per region
• vacancy rates
• backlog numbers
• outsourcing levels (private or overseas)
4.4 Any internal assessments of risk to cancer outcomes from staffing
shortages.
⸻
5. Mortality trends (2015–2025)
For each cancer type:
5.1 Annual cancer mortality totals (2015–2024 or latest available).
5.2 Crude mortality rate per 100,000 population.
5.3 Age-standardised cancer mortality rate.
5.4 Any internal analysis discussing:
• changes in mortality trends
• excess mortality
• worsening late-stage presentation
• relationship between diagnosis delays and mortality
If such analysis does not exist, please confirm.
⸻
6. Sudden-onset, rapidly progressive, or unusually aggressive cancers
I am not requesting patient details — only aggregate data.
Please provide:
6.1 Any internal reporting or surveillance identifying increases in:
• rapidly progressive cancers
• cancers presenting with unusually short
symptom-to-diagnosis intervals
• cancers classified as “high grade”, “rare”, or
“unexpectedly aggressive”
6.2 Any comparison of these patterns before and after 2020.
If no such analysis exists, please state whether the agency undertakes
surveillance for rapid-progression cancers.
⸻
7. Delayed diagnoses due to system strain (2020–2025)
Please provide any internal reporting or analysis that identifies:
7.1 Increases in patients presenting late because of:
• GP shortages
• reduced access to screening
• delayed referrals
• ED overcrowding
• undersupply of radiologists or oncologists
7.2 Any briefing to Ministers discussing increased cancer morbidity or
mortality
risk due to workforce shortages.
⸻
8. Briefings to Ministers (2020–2025)
Please provide:
• A list of all briefings, memos, or papers to Ministers or
Associate Ministers relating to cancer incidence, delays, or mortality.
• For the first five documents in each category, a copy of
the
paper (with redactions as needed).
If providing all documents would trigger section 18(f), the list alone
issufficient for this part
HNZ00105191
Under the Official Information Act 1982, I request aggregated
national-level information relating to mental health crisis services,
acute psychiatric care, and suicide-related data spanning 1 January 2015
to the most recent data
available in 2025.
No personally identifiable information is sought.
1. Mental health & addiction workforce (2015–2025)
For each year:
1.1 Workforce totals (headcount, employed FTE, funded FTE, vacant FTE)
For:
Psychiatrists
Child & adolescent psychiatrists
Psychiatric registrars
Psychologists
Mental health nurses
Alcohol & drug clinicians
Social workers in mental health
Community Support Workers
Crisis Team (CATT/CAHT) clinicians
Peer support workforce
1.2 Workforce shortages
Any national estimates or modelling of numerical FTE shortfall for each
profession, including forecasts to 2030 if available.
2. Crisis response performance and delays (2018–2025)
For each year:
2.1 Crisis line & CATT response times
Median, average, and 90th percentile response times for:
Crisis phone triage
CATT in-person response
Number of crisis calls per year
Number of unresponded or abandoned crisis calls
Number of crises diverted to Police due to workforce shortages
2.2 Acute presentations
Number of mental health emergency presentations to ED
Number of ED presentations waiting >6 hours
Number requiring overnight ED stays due to lack of beds
Number awaiting psychiatric review >8 hours
3. Inpatient & acute bed capacity (2015–2025)
3.1 Acute mental health units
For each year:
Number of acute mental health beds per region
Funded FTE vs actual staffing
Average occupancy
Number of days occupancy >95%
Number of patients held in ED due to lack of psychiatric beds
3.2 Seclusion & restraint
Annual counts of seclusion episodes
Annual counts of restraint episodes
Any internal reporting linking increased seclusion to staffing shortages
4. Follow-up after suicide attempt or crisis (2018–2025)
Please provide:
% of people seen within 48 hours after a suicide attempt
% seen within 7 days
Number not followed up within 7 days
Any internal risk reports on failure to follow up
Any analysis of barriers to timely community follow-up (workforce, risk,
access)
If the data is not collected nationally, please confirm.
5. Suicidology — aggregated data only (2015–2025)
For each year:
5.1 Suicide deaths
Total suicide deaths (annual)
Age-banded totals (0–14, 15–24, 25–44, 45–64, 65+)
Regional breakdown
Ethnicity breakdown (Māori, Pacific, European/Other, Asian)
5.2 Self-harm & suicide attempts
Number of ED presentations for self-harm
Number of hospitalisations for intentional self-harm
Number of repeat self-harm presentations
Number of repeat self-harm hospitalisations
5.3 Contact with services before suicide (aggregated only)
Number and % of suicide deaths where the person had contact with:
Mental health services in previous 7 days
Mental health services in previous 30 days
ED in previous 30 days
Primary care in previous 30 days
If no such analysis exists, please confirm.
6. Service strain & internal risk assessments (2018–2025)
Please provide any internal reports or dashboards relating to:
Threats to patient safety from understaffed crisis teams
ED overcrowding impacting psychiatric patients
Shortages of psychiatrists or psychologists
Delayed FSAs (First Specialist Appointments) for acute mental health
Closure or reduction of mental health units
Te Whatu Ora internal “red status” or “unsafe staffing” alerts
Any risk assessments linking workforce shortages to harm, suicide risk, or
delayed care
If risk assessments do not exist, please confirm.
7. Police involvement due to lack of mental health capacity
For each year 2018–2025:
Number of mental health crisis events handled primarily by Police
Number of mental health crises where Police transported patients due to
lack of
clinical availability
Number of Section 109 Mental Health Act detentions
Any internal analysis on Police substitution for clinical crisis care
8. Waiting times for mental health FSAs (2018–2025)
For each year:
Median wait time to first specialist assessment
% of urgent referrals seen within target time
% waiting >8 weeks, >12 weeks, >6 months
Any regional variation reports
9. Youth & adolescent mental health (2015–2025)
For each year:
FTE of child & adolescent psychiatrists
FTE of psychologists working with 0–17
Number of youth acute presentations
Number of youth self-harm hospitalisations
Wait times for CAMHS FSAs (median + 90th percentile)
Any reports identifying rising acuity or risk levels
10. Ministerial briefings (2020–2025)
Please provide:
A list of all briefings, memos, and reports relating to:
Crisis services
Suicide trends
Workforce degradation
ED mental health pressures
Youth suicide risk
And the first five documents in each category.
If releasing full reports triggers s18(f), the list alone is sufficient.
11. Format
Please provide all datasets in Excel or CSV.
Documents in PDF are acceptable.
If any information is held by another agency, please transfer under s14
OIA.
Kind regards,
Spencer Jones
(via FYI.org.nz)
Statement of confidentiality: This email message and any accompanying
attachments may contain information that is IN-CONFIDENCE and subject to
legal privilege. If you are not the intended recipient, do not read, use,
disseminate, distribute or copy this message or attachments. If you have
received this message in error, please notify the sender immediately and
delete this message
References
Visible links
1. http://www.ombudsman.parliament.nz/
2. mailto:[email address]
From: OIA Requests
Kia ora Spencer
Thank you for your request under the Official Information Act 1982 (the
Act) to the Ministry of Health on 19 November 2025.
“1. Cancer incidence – annual totals (2015–2025)
For each year 2015–2025:
1.1 The total number of new cancer diagnoses in New Zealand.
1.2 Annual totals for each major cancer type listed above.
1.3 Annual percentage change year-on-year for each cancer type (or provide
raw data so this can be calculated).
1.4 Any internal dashboards, surveillance reports, or monitoring tables
used by Te Aho o Te Kahu or Te Whatu Ora to track incidence trends.
⸻
2. Stage at diagnosis (2015–2025)
For each cancer type (where recorded):
2.1 Annual numbers of cancers diagnosed at Stage 1, Stage 2, Stage 3,
Stage 4, and “not staged”.
2.2 Any internal or published analysis on stage migration over time (e.g.,
increasing late-stage diagnoses).
2.3 Any internal risk assessments that identify factors contributing to
later diagnosis.
⸻
3. Diagnostic delays (2018–2025)
Please provide any national-level data or internal reports showing:
3.1 Average and median time from GP referral to first specialist
assessment (FSA).
3.2 Average and median time from FSA to diagnostic confirmation.
3.3 Number and proportion of cases breaching the Faster Cancer Treatment
(FCT) timeframes:
• 62 day target
• 31 day target
3.4 Any analysis of:
• causes of diagnostic delay
• the impact of service closures, under-staffing, or
workforce shortages
• regional variation in delays
If no analysis has been completed, please confirm.
⸻
4. Treatment delays and capacity (2018–2025)
For each year:
4.1 Median and average time from diagnosis to first treatment (surgery,
chemo, radiation).
4.2 Number and proportion of cases breaching expected treatment
timeframes.
4.3 Radiology and oncology service capacity indicators, including:
• available FTE per region
• vacancy rates
• backlog numbers
• outsourcing levels (private or overseas)
4.4 Any internal assessments of risk to cancer outcomes from staffing
shortages.
⸻
5. Mortality trends (2015–2025)
For each cancer type:
5.1 Annual cancer mortality totals (2015–2024 or latest available).
5.2 Crude mortality rate per 100,000 population.
5.3 Age-standardised cancer mortality rate.
5.4 Any internal analysis discussing:
• changes in mortality trends
• excess mortality
• worsening late-stage presentation
• relationship between diagnosis delays and mortality
If such analysis does not exist, please confirm.
⸻
6. Sudden-onset, rapidly progressive, or unusually aggressive cancers
I am not requesting patient details — only aggregate data.
Please provide:
6.1 Any internal reporting or surveillance identifying increases in:
• rapidly progressive cancers
• cancers presenting with unusually short
symptom-to-diagnosis intervals
• cancers classified as “high grade”, “rare”, or
“unexpectedly aggressive”
6.2 Any comparison of these patterns before and after 2020.
If no such analysis exists, please state whether the agency undertakes
surveillance for rapid-progression cancers.
⸻
7. Delayed diagnoses due to system strain (2020–2025)
Please provide any internal reporting or analysis that identifies:
7.1 Increases in patients presenting late because of:
• GP shortages
• reduced access to screening
• delayed referrals
• ED overcrowding
• undersupply of radiologists or oncologists
7.2 Any briefing to Ministers discussing increased cancer morbidity or
mortality risk due to workforce shortages.
⸻
8. Briefings to Ministers (2020–2025)
Please provide:
• A list of all briefings, memos, or papers to Ministers or
Associate Ministers relating to cancer incidence, delays, or mortality.
• For the first five documents in each category, a copy of
the paper (with redactions as needed).
If providing all documents would trigger section 18(f), the list alone is
sufficient for this part.”
Your request asks for information which is more closely connected with the
functions of Health New Zealand. For this reason, the Ministry has decided
to transfer your request to Health New Zealand under section 14(b)(ii) of
the Act. You can expect a response from their agency in due course. Their
contact email is: [1][email address].
Under section 28(3) of the Act you have the right to ask the Ombudsman
to review any decisions made under this request. The Ombudsman may be
contacted by email at: [2][email address] or by calling 0800
802 602.
Ngā mihi
OIA Services Team
Ministry of Health | Manatū Hauora
M[3]inistry of Health information releases
------------------- Original Message -------------------
From: SPENCER JONES <[FOI #32913 email]>;
Received: Wed Nov 19 2025 12:33:06 GMT+1300 (New Zealand Daylight Time)
To: OIA Requests <[email address]>; OIA <[email address]>;
Subject: Official Information request - Cancer Incidence, Stage at
Diagnosis, Delays, and Mortality Trends (2015–2025)
To: Te Aho o Te Kahu – Cancer Control Agency
Cc: Te Whatu Ora, Manatū Hauora, Stats NZ
Via: FYI.org.nz
Date: [Insert]
Tēnā koutou,
Given the increasing public concern about cancer incidence, access to
diagnostics, workforce shortages, and delays in treatment, I request the
following information under the Official Information Act 1982.
This request covers the period 1 January 2015 to the most recent data
available in 2025, and applies to the following cancers (where data is
available or routinely coded):
• Breast
• Colorectal
• Lung
• Prostate
• Pancreatic
• Haematological cancers (e.g., lymphoma, leukaemia)
• Any category labelled as “rare”, “aggressive”, or “rapidly
progressive” cancers
⸻
1. Cancer incidence – annual totals (2015–2025)
For each year 2015–2025:
1.1 The total number of new cancer diagnoses in New Zealand.
1.2 Annual totals for each major cancer type listed above.
1.3 Annual percentage change year-on-year for each cancer type (or provide
raw data so this can be calculated).
1.4 Any internal dashboards, surveillance reports, or monitoring tables
used by Te Aho o Te Kahu or Te Whatu Ora to track incidence trends.
⸻
2. Stage at diagnosis (2015–2025)
For each cancer type (where recorded):
2.1 Annual numbers of cancers diagnosed at Stage 1, Stage 2, Stage 3,
Stage 4, and “not staged”.
2.2 Any internal or published analysis on stage migration over time (e.g.,
increasing late-stage diagnoses).
2.3 Any internal risk assessments that identify factors contributing to
later diagnosis.
⸻
3. Diagnostic delays (2018–2025)
Please provide any national-level data or internal reports showing:
3.1 Average and median time from GP referral to first specialist
assessment (FSA).
3.2 Average and median time from FSA to diagnostic confirmation.
3.3 Number and proportion of cases breaching the Faster Cancer Treatment
(FCT) timeframes:
• 62 day target
• 31 day target
3.4 Any analysis of:
• causes of diagnostic delay
• the impact of service closures, under-staffing, or
workforce shortages
• regional variation in delays
If no analysis has been completed, please confirm.
⸻
4. Treatment delays and capacity (2018–2025)
For each year:
4.1 Median and average time from diagnosis to first treatment (surgery,
chemo, radiation).
4.2 Number and proportion of cases breaching expected treatment
timeframes.
4.3 Radiology and oncology service capacity indicators, including:
• available FTE per region
• vacancy rates
• backlog numbers
• outsourcing levels (private or overseas)
4.4 Any internal assessments of risk to cancer outcomes from staffing
shortages.
⸻
5. Mortality trends (2015–2025)
For each cancer type:
5.1 Annual cancer mortality totals (2015–2024 or latest available).
5.2 Crude mortality rate per 100,000 population.
5.3 Age-standardised cancer mortality rate.
5.4 Any internal analysis discussing:
• changes in mortality trends
• excess mortality
• worsening late-stage presentation
• relationship between diagnosis delays and mortality
If such analysis does not exist, please confirm.
⸻
6. Sudden-onset, rapidly progressive, or unusually aggressive cancers
I am not requesting patient details — only aggregate data.
Please provide:
6.1 Any internal reporting or surveillance identifying increases in:
• rapidly progressive cancers
• cancers presenting with unusually short
symptom-to-diagnosis intervals
• cancers classified as “high grade”, “rare”, or
“unexpectedly aggressive”
6.2 Any comparison of these patterns before and after 2020.
If no such analysis exists, please state whether the agency undertakes
surveillance for rapid-progression cancers.
⸻
7. Delayed diagnoses due to system strain (2020–2025)
Please provide any internal reporting or analysis that identifies:
7.1 Increases in patients presenting late because of:
• GP shortages
• reduced access to screening
• delayed referrals
• ED overcrowding
• undersupply of radiologists or oncologists
7.2 Any briefing to Ministers discussing increased cancer morbidity or
mortality risk due to workforce shortages.
⸻
8. Briefings to Ministers (2020–2025)
Please provide:
• A list of all briefings, memos, or papers to Ministers or
Associate Ministers relating to cancer incidence, delays, or mortality.
• For the first five documents in each category, a copy of
the paper (with redactions as needed).
If providing all documents would trigger section 18(f), the list alone is
sufficient for this part.
⸻
9. Format
• Please provide numerical datasets in Excel or CSV where
possible.
• Documents may be provided as PDF.
• If information is held by another agency, please transfer
under s14 OIA.
Kind regards,
Spencer Jones
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SPENCER JONES left an annotation ()
Public-Facing Annotation – FYI Request #32913
Cancer Incidence, Stage at Diagnosis, Delays, and Mortality Trends (2015–2025)
Updated: 5 December 2025
The Ministry of Health has now acknowledged this request on FYI and assigned it an internal reference. No substantive data has yet been released.
This annotation explains the scope of the request, the importance of the data, and the implications of the Ministry’s current position.
⸻
1. What was requested
The request seeks 10 years of cancer-related system performance data, including:
• Incidence trends (2015–2025)
• Stage at diagnosis (critical for survival outcomes)
• Diagnostic delays / wait times
• Treatment delays
• 30-day / 90-day mortality
• Long-term mortality trends
• Any Ministry or Te Whatu Ora analyses identifying increased late-stage diagnoses, delayed presentations, or backlogs
• Internal communications or reviews that mention cancer delays, system pressure, or missed diagnoses
This is fundamental public health information that should exist within:
• Te Aho o Te Kahu (Cancer Control Agency)
• NZ Cancer Registry (NZCR)
• Te Whatu Ora (Hospital & specialist service reporting)
• Ministry of Health analytical groups
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2. Ministry’s response so far (as at today)
The Ministry has:
• acknowledged receipt
• logged the request
• has not issued any substantive reply
• has not yet provided:
• the requested datasets
• staging breakdowns
• delay-to-treatment data
• mortality analysis
• or internal reviews
There is no extension notice, no partial release, and no refusal at this stage.
This is unusual, because many OIA teams issue an early clarification or extension notice when large analytical datasets or multi-agency consultations are required.
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3. Why this request is important
New Zealand has long-standing issues in:
• cancer wait times
• late-stage diagnosis
• regional variation
• diagnostic delays
• Primary Care access barriers
• scan/specialist wait lists
• pathology turnaround pressures
• under-reporting of wait-time breaches, particularly post-pandemic
Independent clinicians and health advocates have been raising concerns since 2021–2024 about:
• spikes in advanced-stage diagnosis
• worsening tumour sizes at presentation
• delayed diagnostics due to system overload
• pressures in radiology and oncology workforce capacity
• increased emergency presentations as the first mode of diagnosis
However, the public cannot verify these concerns without the staging and delay datasets.
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4. Transparency concerns
To date:
• The latest fully published NZ Cancer Registry staging dataset publicly available is generally several years behind.
• No official 2020–2025 staging analysis has been released that covers the COVID-period disruptions.
• No national-level official reporting exists that merges:
• stage at diagnosis
• time to first specialist appointment
• time to biopsy
• time to first treatment
• mortality
The Ministry’s acknowledgement with no further comment suggests:
• the request may require multi-agency compilation
• the data exists but may not be centrally consolidated
• the Ministry may be considering an extension under s15A
• the Ministry may be considering whether the request spans more than one dataset holder (e.g., Te Aho o Te Kahu)
• the Ministry is assessing whether internal briefing papers or risk assessments are releasable
This is not unusual for a complex clinical-analytics OIA, but it signals that the Ministry likely has relevant internal material.
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5. What happens next
Under the Official Information Act:
• The Ministry has 20 working days to respond or to issue a formal extension under s15A.
• If an extension is issued, it must specify:
• the new timeframe
• the reasons (e.g., consultation, collation, volume, complexity)
• the right to complain to the Ombudsman
If no extension is issued and no response arrives by the statutory deadline, this becomes a breach of s15(1).
If the Ministry claims the data “does not exist,” this can be challenged because:
• Te Aho o Te Kahu and the NZ Cancer Registry hold mandatory staging data
• Te Whatu Ora holds wait-time and diagnostic delay data
• Te Whatu Ora holds regional first specialist appointment (FSA) data
• Cancer multidisciplinary meetings record treatment timelines
• Mortality analysis is an obligatory component of the national cancer indicators framework
So there is a strong factual basis that much of the requested information does exist.
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6. Next steps for anyone following or researching this topic
If the Ministry provides:
A refusal →
You can seek a list of documents, metadata, and a data dictionary, which agencies are often required to provide even when refusing raw data.
A partial release →
You can lodge follow-up OIAs for missing staging or delay-year segments.
A full release →
This could become one of the most important cancer-statistics disclosures since the establishment of Te Aho o Te Kahu.
No response →
A complaint to the Ombudsman may be warranted.
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7. Summary (as at 5 December 2025)
• The Ministry has acknowledged the request.
• No extension, refusal, or data release yet.
• No documents, datasets, staging breakdowns, mortality statistics, or internal reviews have been published.
• The request remains active and pending.
• The next event will likely be either a formal extension or a substantive release.
This request will be updated as new information appears.
From: SPENCER JONES
Subject: Clarification required regarding partial transfer – OIA request (Cancer incidence and delays)
Kia ora OIA Services Team,
Thank you for your 3 December 2025 correspondence transferring my request to Health New Zealand under section 14(b)(ii) of the Official Information Act.
I accept that Health NZ is the appropriate agency for the operational datasets (incidence, FCT delays, treatment times, capacity, etc).
However, the transfer of all parts of the request appears to be incomplete and not fully compliant with section 14, because the Ministry retains responsibility for:
■ Ministerial briefings and advice
(section 8 of my request)
■ National policy analysis
■ Any internal Ministry reporting on cancer trends
■ Risk assessments or warnings provided to Ministers
■ Any documents prepared for or received by the Minister
These are squarely within the Ministry’s ongoing functions.
Under section 14, a transfer may only occur to the extent that another agency is more closely connected with the information.
A blanket transfer of all eight sections, including those relating to Ministerial advice, does not meet this test.
Accordingly, please confirm that the Ministry will retain and process:
• Section 8 of the request (Ministerial briefings), and
• Any part of the request relating to policy advice, Ministerial reporting, or strategic risk assessments.
If the Ministry intends to transfer those components as well, please identify:
1. The statutory basis for doing so, and
2. Whether the Ministry asserts that it holds no Ministerial briefings, risk assessments, or strategic analysis of cancer delays and mortality trends.
I look forward to your clarification.
Kind regards,
Spencer Jones
SPENCER JONES left an annotation ()
PUBLIC-FACING ANNOTATION FOR FYI.ORG.NZ
Annotation by Spencer Jones — 3 December 2025
Thank you to the Ministry of Health and Te Whatu Ora for their acknowledgements.
For transparency, I note that the Ministry has transferred the entire request to Te Whatu Ora under section 14 of the OIA. While operational cancer data is clearly held by Te Whatu Ora, several aspects of the request relate to areas that normally remain under the Ministry’s functions — particularly:
• Ministerial briefings
• national policy analysis
• strategic risk assessments
• advice provided to Ministers regarding cancer outcomes, delays, and mortality trends
These types of information are typically retained by the Ministry of Health rather than Health NZ.
Section 14 allows a transfer only to the extent information is more closely connected with another agency’s functions.
To ensure the request is handled correctly, I have asked the Ministry to clarify whether it still holds:
• Ministerial advice relating to cancer incidence, delays, or mortality
• any strategic analysis or risk assessments
• internal reporting on late-stage diagnosis trends
This annotation is simply to keep the public record clear. Once the Ministry confirms its position on the policy and Ministerial components, I will update the thread so others can follow the process.
Kind regards,
Spencer Jones
Things to do with this request
- Add an annotation (to help the requester or others)
- Download a zip file of all correspondence (note: this contains the same information already available above).
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SPENCER JONES left an annotation ()
Why this second-stage OIA is important
New Zealanders are increasingly worried about cancer trends, delays in diagnosis, and whether the health system can keep up with rising demand. Many families report late diagnoses and rapid disease progression in loved ones. Meanwhile, numerous clinicians have spoken publicly about staffing shortages, long waits for imaging, and delays in cancer pathways.
Despite this, the public does not have ready access to consistent national data on:
• how many cancers are being diagnosed each year
• whether late-stage diagnosis is increasing
• how long people are waiting for tests and treatment
• whether mortality is rising
• how workforce shortages are contributing to delays
This OIA seeks neutral, objective, numerical data from Te Aho o Te Kahu, Te Whatu Ora, and the Ministry of Health so that independent researchers, journalists, and communities can understand the true state of cancer care in Aotearoa.
The request covers:
• 10 years of incidence and mortality data
• stage at diagnosis
• diagnostic and treatment delay metrics
• Faster Cancer Treatment compliance rates
• internal reports on late presentation
• risk assessments linking workforce shortages to delays
• Ministerial briefings relating to cancer outcomes
None of the questions assert causation.
They simply request the data and internal analysis that will allow the public to see whether the patterns reported by families and frontline clinicians align with official records.
This OIA complements the first-stage health workforce OIA by examining downstream consequences of system strain: delays, late-stage diagnoses, and changes in mortality.
The resulting dataset — when released — will be one of the clearest public snapshots of cancer trends in NZ since 2015.
Link to this