Cancer Incidence, Stage at Diagnosis, Delays, and Mortality Trends (2015–2025)

SPENCER JONES made this Official Information request to Ministry of Health

Currently waiting for a response from Ministry of Health, they must respond promptly and normally no later than (details and exceptions).

From: SPENCER JONES

To: Te Aho o Te Kahu – Cancer Control Agency
Cc: Te Whatu Ora, Manatū Hauora, Stats NZ
Via: FYI.org.nz
Date: [Insert]

Tēnā koutou,

Given the increasing public concern about cancer incidence, access to diagnostics, workforce shortages, and delays in treatment, I request the following information under the Official Information Act 1982.

This request covers the period 1 January 2015 to the most recent data available in 2025, and applies to the following cancers (where data is available or routinely coded):
• Breast
• Colorectal
• Lung
• Prostate
• Pancreatic
• Haematological cancers (e.g., lymphoma, leukaemia)
• Any category labelled as “rare”, “aggressive”, or “rapidly progressive” cancers

1. Cancer incidence – annual totals (2015–2025)

For each year 2015–2025:

1.1 The total number of new cancer diagnoses in New Zealand.
1.2 Annual totals for each major cancer type listed above.
1.3 Annual percentage change year-on-year for each cancer type (or provide raw data so this can be calculated).
1.4 Any internal dashboards, surveillance reports, or monitoring tables used by Te Aho o Te Kahu or Te Whatu Ora to track incidence trends.

2. Stage at diagnosis (2015–2025)

For each cancer type (where recorded):

2.1 Annual numbers of cancers diagnosed at Stage 1, Stage 2, Stage 3, Stage 4, and “not staged”.
2.2 Any internal or published analysis on stage migration over time (e.g., increasing late-stage diagnoses).
2.3 Any internal risk assessments that identify factors contributing to later diagnosis.

3. Diagnostic delays (2018–2025)

Please provide any national-level data or internal reports showing:

3.1 Average and median time from GP referral to first specialist assessment (FSA).
3.2 Average and median time from FSA to diagnostic confirmation.
3.3 Number and proportion of cases breaching the Faster Cancer Treatment (FCT) timeframes:
• 62 day target
• 31 day target

3.4 Any analysis of:
• causes of diagnostic delay
• the impact of service closures, under-staffing, or workforce shortages
• regional variation in delays

If no analysis has been completed, please confirm.

4. Treatment delays and capacity (2018–2025)

For each year:

4.1 Median and average time from diagnosis to first treatment (surgery, chemo, radiation).
4.2 Number and proportion of cases breaching expected treatment timeframes.
4.3 Radiology and oncology service capacity indicators, including:
• available FTE per region
• vacancy rates
• backlog numbers
• outsourcing levels (private or overseas)

4.4 Any internal assessments of risk to cancer outcomes from staffing shortages.

5. Mortality trends (2015–2025)

For each cancer type:

5.1 Annual cancer mortality totals (2015–2024 or latest available).
5.2 Crude mortality rate per 100,000 population.
5.3 Age-standardised cancer mortality rate.
5.4 Any internal analysis discussing:
• changes in mortality trends
• excess mortality
• worsening late-stage presentation
• relationship between diagnosis delays and mortality

If such analysis does not exist, please confirm.

6. Sudden-onset, rapidly progressive, or unusually aggressive cancers

I am not requesting patient details — only aggregate data.

Please provide:

6.1 Any internal reporting or surveillance identifying increases in:
• rapidly progressive cancers
• cancers presenting with unusually short symptom-to-diagnosis intervals
• cancers classified as “high grade”, “rare”, or “unexpectedly aggressive”

6.2 Any comparison of these patterns before and after 2020.

If no such analysis exists, please state whether the agency undertakes surveillance for rapid-progression cancers.

7. Delayed diagnoses due to system strain (2020–2025)

Please provide any internal reporting or analysis that identifies:

7.1 Increases in patients presenting late because of:
• GP shortages
• reduced access to screening
• delayed referrals
• ED overcrowding
• undersupply of radiologists or oncologists

7.2 Any briefing to Ministers discussing increased cancer morbidity or mortality risk due to workforce shortages.

8. Briefings to Ministers (2020–2025)

Please provide:
• A list of all briefings, memos, or papers to Ministers or Associate Ministers relating to cancer incidence, delays, or mortality.
• For the first five documents in each category, a copy of the paper (with redactions as needed).

If providing all documents would trigger section 18(f), the list alone is sufficient for this part.

9. Format
• Please provide numerical datasets in Excel or CSV where possible.
• Documents may be provided as PDF.
• If information is held by another agency, please transfer under s14 OIA.

Kind regards,
Spencer Jones

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SPENCER JONES left an annotation ()

Why this second-stage OIA is important

New Zealanders are increasingly worried about cancer trends, delays in diagnosis, and whether the health system can keep up with rising demand. Many families report late diagnoses and rapid disease progression in loved ones. Meanwhile, numerous clinicians have spoken publicly about staffing shortages, long waits for imaging, and delays in cancer pathways.

Despite this, the public does not have ready access to consistent national data on:
• how many cancers are being diagnosed each year
• whether late-stage diagnosis is increasing
• how long people are waiting for tests and treatment
• whether mortality is rising
• how workforce shortages are contributing to delays

This OIA seeks neutral, objective, numerical data from Te Aho o Te Kahu, Te Whatu Ora, and the Ministry of Health so that independent researchers, journalists, and communities can understand the true state of cancer care in Aotearoa.

The request covers:
• 10 years of incidence and mortality data
• stage at diagnosis
• diagnostic and treatment delay metrics
• Faster Cancer Treatment compliance rates
• internal reports on late presentation
• risk assessments linking workforce shortages to delays
• Ministerial briefings relating to cancer outcomes

None of the questions assert causation.
They simply request the data and internal analysis that will allow the public to see whether the patterns reported by families and frontline clinicians align with official records.

This OIA complements the first-stage health workforce OIA by examining downstream consequences of system strain: delays, late-stage diagnoses, and changes in mortality.

The resulting dataset — when released — will be one of the clearest public snapshots of cancer trends in NZ since 2015.

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Things to do with this request

Anyone:
Ministry of Health only: