Kia ora Hayden,
 
On behalf of the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment I
acknowledge your email of 10/01/2026 requesting, under the Official
Information Act 1982, the following:
 
1. The net energy analysis for increasing electricity demand from 39.6 TWh
to 71.7 TWh by 2050 (MBIE EDGS July 2024) while transitioning to 96.3%
renewable and closing thermal baseload. Specifically:

Energy return on energy invested (EROEI) for the transition
Embodied emissions in required infrastructure (wind, solar, transmission,
storage)
Material throughput requirements (steel, copper, concrete, rare earths)

If no net energy analysis exists, confirm this and identify who approved
the 81% demand projection without one.
2. The funding mechanism for 'many tens of billions' in generation and
network investment under structural deficit (Treasury, continuous since
2019). Three options exist:

Electricity price increases (contradicts demand growth assumption)
Crown investment (contradicts deficit reduction)
Private capital (requires ROI assumptions—provide them)

If no integrated funding analysis exists, confirm this and identify who
approved the targets without one.
3. The allocation framework when demand exceeds supply. Data centres,
households, hospitals, industry—who gets cut first? Provide the framework
or confirm none exists.

MBIE's projections assume we build massive infrastructure without
accounting for the energy cost of building it. That's not planning—that's
wishful accounting.
 
We will endeavour to respond to your request as soon as possible, and no
later than 13/02/2026, being 20 working days after the day your request
was received. If we are unable to respond to your request by then, we will
notify you of an extension of that timeframe. Please note that the days
from 25 December 2025 to 15 January 2026 (inclusive) are defined as
non-working days in the Act and are not counted in the calculation for the
response due date. This will affect the time period for responding to your
request. If you have any enquiries regarding your request feel free to
contact us via email to [1][MBIE request email].
 
Nāku noa, nā
Ministerial Services
Strategy and Assurance
Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment
15 Stout Street, Wellington 6011 |  P O Box 1473 Wellington 6140

References

Visible links
1. mailto:[MBIE request email]