OIA Request - Net Energy Analysis for 81% Demand Increase Under Renewable Transition
Hayden made this Official Information request to Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment
Currently waiting for a response from Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment, they must respond promptly and normally no later than (details and exceptions).
From: Hayden
Kia ora,
Under the Official Information Act 1982, I request:
1. The net energy analysis for increasing electricity demand from 39.6 TWh to 71.7 TWh by 2050 (MBIE EDGS July 2024) while transitioning to 96.3% renewable and closing thermal baseload. Specifically:
Energy return on energy invested (EROEI) for the transition
Embodied emissions in required infrastructure (wind, solar, transmission, storage)
Material throughput requirements (steel, copper, concrete, rare earths)
If no net energy analysis exists, confirm this and identify who approved the 81% demand projection without one.
2. The funding mechanism for "many tens of billions" in generation and network investment under structural deficit (Treasury, continuous since 2019). Three options exist:
Electricity price increases (contradicts demand growth assumption)
Crown investment (contradicts deficit reduction)
Private capital (requires ROI assumptions—provide them)
If no integrated funding analysis exists, confirm this and identify who approved the targets without one.
3. The allocation framework when demand exceeds supply. Data centres, households, hospitals, industry—who gets cut first? Provide the framework or confirm none exists.
MBIE's projections assume we build massive infrastructure without accounting for the energy cost of building it. That's not planning—that's wishful accounting.
Things to do with this request
- Add an annotation (to help the requester or others)
- Download a zip file of all correspondence (note: this contains the same information already available above).

