AT Auckland Cycle Model Review and Validation
Darren Conway made this Official Information request to Auckland Transport
The request was partially successful.
From: Darren Conway
Dear Auckland Transport,
It is reported that The Auckland Cycle Model is a tool that has been applied to a range of AT, Auckland Council and Transport Agency projects, including the Auckland Urban Cycleways Programme.
I am seeking documentation of any:
quantitative evaluation of the model accuracy, specifically the ability of the model to forecast changes in the cycling network compared to actual data measured after the change.
analysis of the models expected error over the time of the forecast. (For how far in the future can the model provide reliable forecasts)
Yours faithfully,
Darren Conway
From: AT Official Information (AT)
Auckland Transport
Kia ora Darren,
Auckland Transport (AT) acknowledges receipt of your request for official
information dated the 22^nd of September 2022 for a quantitative
evaluation of the Auckland Cycle Model.
We hope to respond to your request as soon as possible, but not later than
the 21^st of October 2022, which is 20 working days after the day your
request was received. If we aren’t able to respond to your request by
then, we will notify you of an extension of that timeframe.
Your case is being managed by Anna, who is one of our LGOIMA Business
partners. If you have any further queries, you can contact the team on
(09) 355 3553 during business hours, quoting Local Government Official
Information request number CAS-627794-V2B3G7.
Ngâ mihi,
Peter | Customer Care Coordinator
Customer Care| Case Management
Level 5, 20 Viaduct Harbour Avenue, Auckland 1010
P 09 355 3553
[1]www.at.govt.nz
From: Darren Conway <[FOI #20637 email]>;
Received: Thu Sep 22 2022 09:53:51 GMT+1200 (New Zealand Standard Time)
To: [email address] <at[Auckland Transport request email]>;
LGOIMA <at[Auckland Transport request email]>;
Subject: Official Information request - AT Auckland Cycle Model Review and
Validation
Dear Auckland Transport,
It is reported that The Auckland Cycle Model is a tool that has been applied to a range of AT, Auckland Council and Transport Agency projects, including the Auckland Urban Cycleways Programme.
I am seeking documentation of any:
quantitative evaluation of the model accuracy, specifically the ability of the model to forecast changes in the cycling network compared to actual data measured after the change.
analysis of the models expected error over the time of the forecast. (For how far in the future can the model provide reliable forecasts)
Yours faithfully,
Darren Conway
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From: AT Official Information (AT)
Auckland Transport
Good morning Darren,
There are particular aspects of your request that are the domain of Waka
Kotahi.
We have partially transferred the request to them to respond to and you
will hear from Waka Kotahi in due course.
We will provide you with what we hold.
Kind regards,
Anna Rushton
We all have an important part to play in helping to reduce the spread of
COVID-19 in our communities. [1]Find the latest information and advice
from Auckland Transport. For the latest news from the Ministry of Health
go to the [2]Unite Against Covid-19 website.
Important notice: The contents of this email and any attachments may be
confidential and subject to legal privilege. If you have received this
email message in error please notify us immediately and erase all copies
of the message and attachments; any use, disclosure or copying of this
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may be those of the individual sender and may not necessarily reflect the
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From: AT Official Information (AT)
Auckland Transport
Auckland Transport CAS 627794 V2B3G7.pdf
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20221014 Flow Transportation Specialists 2018 Auckland Cycle Model Development Report Redacted.pdf
16.4M
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Kia ora Darren
I’ve attached the official information you asked for
On 22/09/2022 you asked for information regarding the accuracy of the
Auckland Cycle Model
I’ve attached a response from Nalisha Kesha, Acting GM Strategic Projects.
Should you believe that we have not dealt with your request appropriately,
you are able to make a complaint to the Office of the Ombudsman in
accordance with section 27(3) of the LGOIMA Act and seek an investigation
and review in regard to this matter.
You can contact the Ombudsman at [1]www.ombudsman.parliament.nz or
freephone 0800 802 602.
If you have any further queries, simply reply to this email leaving the
subject line as it is. We’ll make sure this information is added to your
case.
Ngā mihi
Anna
LGOIMA Business Partner
Auckland Transport
20 Viaduct Harbour Avenue, Auckland 1010
[2]www.at.govt.nz
We all have an important part to play in helping to reduce the spread of
COVID-19 in our communities. [3]Find the latest information and advice
from Auckland Transport. For the latest news from the Ministry of Health
go to the [4]Unite Against Covid-19 website.
Important notice: The contents of this email and any attachments may be
confidential and subject to legal privilege. If you have received this
email message in error please notify us immediately and erase all copies
of the message and attachments; any use, disclosure or copying of this
message or attachments is prohibited. Any views expressed in this email
may be those of the individual sender and may not necessarily reflect the
views of Auckland Transport.
References
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From: Official Correspondence
Kia ora Darren
This email acknowledges your below request for information made under the
Official Information Act 1982. Your request was transferred to Waka Kotahi
from Auckland Transport.
I am seeking documentation of any:
quantitative evaluation of the model accuracy, specifically the ability of
the model to forecast changes in the cycling network compared to actual
data measured after the change.
analysis of the models expected error over the time of the forecast. (For
how far in the future can the model provide reliable forecasts)
Your request has been forwarded to the appropriate section of Waka Kotahi
NZ Transport Agency for response. They will contact you if they require
clarification of your request, more time to respond, or if your request
has been transferred to another organisation to respond to. Unless more
time is required, Waka Kotahi will send a response to you within 20
working days of receiving your request – in this instance on or before 9
November 2022.
As you will be aware, New Zealand is currently responding to the COVID-19
Omicron outbreak. As a result, resourcing may be impacted due to staff
absences, and the response to your Official Information Act request could
be delayed. We will endeavour to provide a response to you within the 20
day timeframe, or as soon as possible. In the meantime, we will keep you
informed of any changing timeframes. We apologise for any inconvenience
and appreciate your understanding.
Lastly, the information you have requested may contain the names and
contact details of our staff. Please let us know whether you require these
names and contact details. We may need to consult our staff before
deciding whether we can release this information, and this may take a bit
more time. If we do not hear from you we will assume that you do not
require staff names and contact details.
If you would like to discuss your request with Waka Kotahi, please contact
us by email at [1][email address].
Ngâ mihi
Ministerial Services
Te Waka Kôtuia | Engagement & Partnerships
Waka Kotahi NZ Transport Agency
[2]twitter | [3]youtube | [4]facebook
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communication may be accessed or retained by Waka Kotahi NZ Transport
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From: Official Correspondence
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OIA 11190 Darren Conway.pdf
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SeaPath Peer Review Sep 2018 v01a Complete Redacted.pdf
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TN1C220322 Waitemata W C Connection Assessment Redacted.pdf
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R2D180907 Auckland Cycle Model Development Report Redacted.pdf
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Kia ora Darren
Please find attached the response to your request of 22^nd September 2022
for information under the Official Information Act 1982.
Ngā mihi
Ministerial Services
Te Waka Kōtuia | Engagement & Partnerships
Waka Kotahi NZ Transport Agency
[1]twitter | [2]youtube | [3]facebook
[4][IMG]
From: Official Correspondence
Sent: Wednesday, 2 November 2022 10:11 am
To: '[FOI #20637 email]'
[5][FOI #20637 email]
Subject: OIA-11190 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
Kia ora Darren
This email acknowledges your below request for information made under the
Official Information Act 1982. Your request was transferred to Waka Kotahi
from Auckland Transport.
I am seeking documentation of any:
quantitative evaluation of the model accuracy, specifically the ability of
the model to forecast changes in the cycling network compared to actual
data measured after the change.
analysis of the models expected error over the time of the forecast. (For
how far in the future can the model provide reliable forecasts)
Your request has been forwarded to the appropriate section of Waka Kotahi
NZ Transport Agency for response. They will contact you if they require
clarification of your request, more time to respond, or if your request
has been transferred to another organisation to respond to. Unless more
time is required, Waka Kotahi will send a response to you within 20
working days of receiving your request – in this instance on or before 9
November 2022.
As you will be aware, New Zealand is currently responding to the COVID-19
Omicron outbreak. As a result, resourcing may be impacted due to staff
absences, and the response to your Official Information Act request could
be delayed. We will endeavour to provide a response to you within the 20
day timeframe, or as soon as possible. In the meantime, we will keep you
informed of any changing timeframes. We apologise for any inconvenience
and appreciate your understanding.
Lastly, the information you have requested may contain the names and
contact details of our staff. Please let us know whether you require these
names and contact details. We may need to consult our staff before
deciding whether we can release this information, and this may take a bit
more time. If we do not hear from you we will assume that you do not
require staff names and contact details.
If you would like to discuss your request with Waka Kotahi, please contact
us by email at [6][email address].
Ngā mihi
Ministerial Services
Te Waka Kōtuia | Engagement & Partnerships
Waka Kotahi NZ Transport Agency
[7]twitter | [8]youtube | [9]facebook
[10][IMG]
This message, together with any attachments, may contain information that
is classified and/or subject to legal privilege. Any classification
markings must be adhered to. If you are not the intended recipient, you
must not peruse, disclose, disseminate, copy or use the message in any
way. If you have received this message in error, please notify us
immediately by return email and then destroy the original message. This
communication may be accessed or retained by Waka Kotahi NZ Transport
Agency for information assurance purposes.
References
Visible links
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5. mailto:[FOI #20637 email]
6. mailto:[email address]
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From: Darren Conway
Dear Official Correspondence,
Thank you for providing the 3 reports. They answer my request for the information.
I have reviewed the WAITEMATĀ HARBOUR WALKING AND CYCLING CONNECTION : DEMAND AND ECONOMIC BENEFITS ASSESSMENT OF FERRY AND BUS OPTIONS Mar 2022
I challenge all of the redactions where justification is claimed under OIA s 9(2)(j). These values are mostly estimates contained in a report by a consultant. It is difficult to perceive any scenario where disclosure is likely to prejudice or disadvantage the NZTA. Prevailing market forces would drive any negotiations, not aged estimates in a report.
It is definitely in the public interest to know the benefits and costs being used to assess infrastructure options and investments funded from taxes and rates.
My expectation is that the report will be released without s 9(2)(j) redactions.
Yours sincerely,
Darren Conway
From: Official Correspondence
Dear Darren
Thank you for the email below regarding the redactions under section
9(2)(j) of the Official Information Act 1982 that have been applied to the
document we sent you (‘Waitematā Harbour Walking and Cycling Connection:
Demand and Economic Benefits Assessment of Ferry and Bus Options Mar
2022’).
Under section 28 of the Act, you have the right to ask the Ombudsman to
review Waka Kotahi decision to withhold some information under section
9(2)(j) of the Act from this document. The contact details for the
Ombudsman can be located at [1]www.ombudsman.parliament.nz.
Nga mihi
Ministerial Services
Te Waka Kōtuia | Engagement & Partnerships
Waka Kotahi NZ Transport Agency
[2]twitter | [3]youtube | [4]facebook
[5][IMG]
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Darren Conway left an annotation ()
For the benefit of those that may follow this request:
The report provided: "Cross Harbour Walking and Cycling Connection
DRAFT Transport Modelling and Economic Evaluation
November 2019"
Provides a detailed review of the model used for forecast cycle traffic. It is notable that the report is an evaluation by the company that produced the model. The report is not an independent peer review. As such, the report lacks some credibility. On the whole, the report is comprehensive and detailed. It appears to be an honest attempt to provide a balanced view of the model.
An important part of any model development is to identify limitations and estimate errors in the model. The Cycle model is not perfect (no model is) and limitations are identified in the report. These include: "the model is unable to represent any significant future change in recreational use on key routes, such as those that may be specifically drawn to future infrastructure such as SeaPath, SkyPath or improvements to Tamaki Drive." The effect is that the model can be expected to under-estimate infrastructure upgrades on recreational cycle traffic.
Also: "It does not however predict other factors that may influence road users’ future travel choices, such increasing general traffic congestion, fuel costs, road
pricing, or the impact of increasing uptake in electric bicycles." Again, the effect is that the model can be expected to under-estimate future cycle traffic.
Short trips within zones (school, shops, park-and-ride) are also not included in the model. Research shows that short trips of less than 3km are the dominant generator of cycle traffic.
There are other limitations which also have the effect of reducing cycle traffic forecasts.
It is good that these limitations are identified in the report. All of these limitations push the model output one way. This means that the model output should be treated as a worst-case and pessimistic forecast of future cycle traffic forecasts. This particularly applies to economic analysis and the critical calculation of Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR). What should happen is that the model outputs are manually corrected to calculate an expected cycle traffic forecast. Sensitivity analysis can then be applied to estimate the economic effects of the model error and corrections.
This is important, and I am going to repeat it. Any economic analysis should aim to estimate expected mid-point costs and benefits. The mid-point estimates of benefits and costs should then be varied over the range optimistic to pessimistic to test the sensitivity of the economic case. This means that the raw outputs of the Cross Harbour Cycle Model should be adjusted before they are applied as inputs to the economic analysis.
I requested this document as part of a self-initiated review of the Business Case for the Cross Harbour Walking and Cycling connection. The application of the model outputs as an input to the economic calculations will directly affect the business case. If the economic analysis has not adjusted the cycle traffic forecasts for identified limitations and estimated errors, that would be a serious deficiency with the economic analysis.
Link to this