20 Viaduct Harbour Avenue Auckland 1010
Private Bag 92250, Auckland 1142, New Zealand
Ph 09 355 3553
Fax 09 355 3550
14 October 2022
Darren Conway
[FYI request #20637 email]
Kia ora Darren,
The information you requested – CAS-627794-V2B3G7
Thank you for your request for information dated 4 October regarding the accuracy of the Auckland
Cycle Model. You contacted Auckland Transport (AT) stating:
“It is reported that The Auckland Cycle Model is a tool that has been applied to a range of AT,
Auckland Council and Transport Agency projects, including the Auckland Urban Cycleways
Programme.
I am seeking documentation of any:
quantitative evaluation of the model accuracy, specifical y the ability of the model to forecast
changes in the cycling network compared to actual data measured after the change.
analysis of the models expected error over the time of the forecast. (For how far in the future can
the model provide reliable forecasts)”.
We are only able to partially respond to this request.
The Auckland Cycle Model (ACM) is owned and operated by Flow Transportation Specialists Ltd.
(Flow). Flow has made available their 2018
Model Development Report, which we are releasing to
you in response to your request.
The report contains validation of the ACM’s demand estimates against selected cycle count sites for
the years 2013 and 2016. Auckland Transport has not undertaken any further evaluation of the
ACM’s accuracy. Where Flow have been contracted by Auckland Transport to provide cycling
demand estimation services, demands have been forecast at the earliest for either 2026 or 2028. At
this time, therefore, it is not possible to compare the accuracy of the ACM’s forecasts to real world
data.
Auckland Transport does not hold any documentation relating to any potential future ‘errors’ of the
ACM’s forecasts. As has been previously communicated to you, Waka Kotahi NZ Transport Agency
will provide you with what they hold.
aucklandtransport.govt.nz
Should you believe that we have not responded appropriately to your request, you are able to make
a complaint to the Office of the Ombudsman in accordance with section 27(3) of the LGOIMA and
seek an investigation and review in regard to this matter.
Yours sincerely
Nalisha Kesha
GM Strategic Projects (Acting)
