Dear Canterbury District Health Board,
Following on from your FOI release of information on 2020 and 2021 emergency department presentations, have any causes for the increase in 2021 been found?
Here I show my calculations for the increases above 17% which appears to be the average increase:
1 Mar-31Dec2020 (306 days) 1Mar-14Nov2021 (256 days) % change per day Presenting Complaint
4 54 1513.67 Abnormal blood test
4 20 497.66 Abnormal vital signs
7 16 173.21 Insomnia
232 422 117.42 Follow-up visit
16 27 101.71 Aggressive behaviour
24 38 89.26 Tremor
810 1261 86.09 Cough
217 329 81.22 Plaster cast problem
28 42 79.30 Swollen leg (single)
12 18 79.30 Chemical exposure
31 46 77.37 Postpartum complication
22 29 57.56 Removal of skin sutures or staples
1552 2030 56.35 General weakness/fatigue/unwell
79 102 54.33 Change of dressing
18 23 52.73 Electrical injury
23 29 50.71 Hypothermia
40 49 46.43 Swelling of tongue
28 34 45.15 Itching
89 105 41.02 Pain in anus and/or rectum
4687 5469 39.47 Shortness of breath
31 36 38.81 Nasal congestion
101 117 38.47 Abdominal distension
290 330 36.02 Earache
39 44 34.86 Discharge from ear
34 38 33.59 Episodes of not breathing (apnoea)
26 29 33.32 Exposure to blood and/or body fluid
106 118 33.06 Coughing up blood
49 54 31.73 Injury of nose
61 67 31.29 Foreign body in ear
12 13 29.49 Sexual assault
2560 2761 28.92 Fever symptoms
312 336 28.73 Foreign body in eye
56 60 28.07 Administration of medication
1444 1546 27.97 Mental health problem
243 259 27.40 Weakness of face muscles
103 108 25.33 Crying baby
235 245 24.62 Altered sensation
7032 7264 23.47 Injury of upper limb
672 692 23.09 Sore throat
35 36 22.95 Injury of ear
233 239 22.61 Vomiting blood
489 500 22.22 Wound complication
90 92 22.19 Abnormal behaviour
949 969 22.05 Altered mental state
55 56 21.70 Cardiac arrest
1420 1443 21.47 Localised swelling or lump of skin
940 955 21.44 Multiple injuries – minor
630 640 21.43 Pregnancy problem
6073 6165 21.34 Injury of lower limb
356 360 20.87 Visual disturbance
275 278 20.84 Multiple injuries – major
402 406 20.72 Alcohol/drug intoxication or withdrawal
367 368 19.86 Vaginal bleeding – not pregnant
7006 6952 18.61 Chest pain
1942 1906 17.32 Collapse and/or syncope.

Where you have given <5 I have substituted 4.
I have not included presentations where neither figure was 20 or more.

https://www.cdhb.health.nz/wp-content/up...

Yours faithfully,

Brian Sandle

Dear Lara Williams (Administrator),

Thank you for your request about % signs.
The data I am interpreting comes from your flle
https://www.cdhb.health.nz/wp-content/up...
I entered it into a spreadsheet and calculated the number per day for each presentation. At te top of my list are the headings for the columns. The third column with two decimal places, is a percentage increase. If you wish to put my figures into a spreadsheet you may "paste special" into say Openoffice and use space as a delimiter.

Here is my whole list with negative signs indicating a decrease.
You had supplied the numbers for emergency department presentations (FOI request) 306 days from last year and 256 days from this year. Where you (CDHB) gave a figure of less than 5 I have inserted 4 though it could be lower. I have calculated presentations per day then the percent difference. Lower in the list - negative figures show reductions this year.

I hypothesise that even an increase in plaster cast problems might point to infection under the cast - caused by reduced innate immunity, also for bandage changes, as well as of course breathing, cough, ear problems and others, maybe abdominal distension.
Then there may be neurological effects of perhaps autoimmunity.
I don't think RSV explains it all, rather I tend to the view reduced immunity from the vaccination needs to be isolated as a cause for RSV
1 Mar-31Dec2020 1Mar-14Nov2021 % change per day Presenting Complaint
4 54 1513.67 Abnormal blood test
4 20 497.66 Abnormal vital signs
7 16 173.21 Insomnia
232 422 117.42 Follow-up visit
16 27 101.71 Aggressive behaviour
24 38 89.26 Tremor
810 1261 86.09 Cough
217 329 81.22 Plaster cast problem
28 42 79.30 Swollen leg (single)
12 18 79.30 Chemical exposure
31 46 77.37 Postpartum complication
22 29 57.56 Removal of skin sutures or staples
1552 2030 56.35 General weakness/fatigue/unwell
79 102 54.33 Change of dressing
18 23 52.73 Electrical injury
23 29 50.71 Hypothermia
40 49 46.43 Swelling of tongue
28 34 45.15 Itching
89 105 41.02 Pain in anus and/or rectum
4687 5469 39.47 Shortness of breath
31 36 38.81 Nasal congestion
101 117 38.47 Abdominal distension
290 330 36.02 Earache
39 44 34.86 Discharge from ear
34 38 33.59 Episodes of not breathing (apnoea)
26 29 33.32 Exposure to blood and/or body fluid
106 118 33.06 Coughing up blood
49 54 31.73 Injury of nose
61 67 31.29 Foreign body in ear
12 13 29.49 Sexual assault
2560 2761 28.92 Fever symptoms
312 336 28.73 Foreign body in eye
56 60 28.07 Administration of medication
1444 1546 27.97 Mental health problem
243 259 27.40 Weakness of face muscles
103 108 25.33 Crying baby
235 245 24.62 Altered sensation
7032 7264 23.47 Injury of upper limb
672 692 23.09 Sore throat
35 36 22.95 Injury of ear
233 239 22.61 Vomiting blood
489 500 22.22 Wound complication
90 92 22.19 Abnormal behaviour
949 969 22.05 Altered mental state
55 56 21.70 Cardiac arrest
1420 1443 21.47 Localised swelling or lump of skin
940 955 21.44 Multiple injuries – minor
630 640 21.43 Pregnancy problem
6073 6165 21.34 Injury of lower limb
356 360 20.87 Visual disturbance
275 278 20.84 Multiple injuries – major
402 406 20.72 Alcohol/drug intoxication or withdrawal
367 368 19.86 Vaginal bleeding – not pregnant
7006 6952 18.61 Chest pain
1942 1906 17.32 Collapse and/or syncope
92 90 16.93 Difficulty weight bearing
137 133 16.04 Foreign body in throat
133 129 15.94 Swelling of joint (no recent injury)
1819 1764 15.92 Pain in lower limb (no recent injury)
1097 1062 15.72 Injury of back
152 147 15.60 Script request
240 232 15.55 Bite
58 56 15.41 Certificate and/or paperwork
56 54 15.26 Ataxia
343 330 15.00 Neck pain (no recent injury)
693 666 14.87 Postoperative complication
71 68 14.48 Vascular disorder of limb
210 200 13.84 Constipation
1614 1534 13.61 Palpitations
923 869 12.54 Rash
855 803 12.26 Pain in upper limb (no recent injury)
1937 1816 12.06 Open wound (abrasion/laceration/puncture)
462 433 12.03 Pain in eye
110 103 11.92 Hypoglycaemia
267 250 11.92 Self harm
125 117 11.88 Red eye
170 159 11.80 Ingestion of potentially harmful eneity
74 69 11.45 Swallowing problem
157 146 11.16 Hyperglycaemia
650 602 10.70 PR bleed
1463 1351 10.38 Ooverdose of drug
602 555 10.20 Swelling of face
9718 8948 10.06 Abdominal pain
1126 1031 9.45 Seizure
151 138 9.24 Feeding problem
2298 2091 8.76 Nausea vomiting diarrhoea
1813 1649 8.72 Headache
1723 1566 8.64 Back pain (no recent injury)
134 121 7.93 Noisy breathing
328 293 6.78 Blood in uriine
300 267 6.38 Speech problem
18 16 6.25 Spontaneious bruising
122 108 5.81 Female gentical problem problem
2462 2172 5.45 Injury of head
767 676 5.35 Toothache and/or dental infection
1959 1720 4.95 Fall(s)
238 208 4.46 Complication of device (not catheter)
325 282 3.72 Complication of urinary catheter
542 470 3.65 Suicidal thoughts
646 559 3.43 Weakness of limb
81 70 3.30 Breast problem
423 365 3.14 Nose bleed
58 50 3.04 Foreign body in nose
584 502 2.75 UTI symptoms
804 686 1.99 Injury of face
44 37 0.51 Sting
138 116 0.48 Pain in groin
106 89 0.36 Anxiety
423 355 0.32 Urinary retention
613 508 -0.94 Injury of chest
308 255 -1.04 Injury of neck
73 60 -1.76 Swollen legs (both)
67 55 -1.88 Injury of abdomen
39 32 -1.92 Foreign body in respiratory tract (inhaled)
169 138 -2.39 Foreign body in skin
504 411 -2.53 Male genital problem
1254 1013 -3.44 Dizziness/vertigo
64 51 -4.75 Noxious inhallation
310 246 -5.15 Injury of eye
24 19 -5.37 Loss of appetite
56 44 -6.08 Discharge from eye
32 25 -6.62 Injury of genitalia
389 300 -7.82 Burn
232 176 -9.32 Pain in face
779 583 -10.54 Referral for investigation
47 35 -10.99 Reduced urine output
124 92 -11.32 Situational crisis
170 126 -11.41 Foreign body in gastrointestinal tract (swallowed)
112 79 -15.69 Jaundice
136 93 -18.26 Mouth problem (not dental)
32 20 -25.29 Amnesia
35 17 -41.94 Hearing loss/ tinnitus
27 13 -42.45 Stoma problem
21 9 -48.77 Excessive urine output
16 6 -55.18 Increased muscle tone

Yours sincerely,

Brian Sandle

Dear Lara Williams (Administrator),
Some doctors have claimed the isolation of lockdowns decreased several types of infections in 2020, making lower presentations for health care that year. But it must also be taken into account that people had been told to stay away from medical centres unless reallly necessary to have help. Here is a study of the US situation relating to that avoidance for 2020.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/m...
which must be taken into account.

Yours sincerely,

Brian Sandle

Dear Lara Williams (Administrator),
As regards the reduced immunity argument please keep a watch for reviews of this preprint: "Innate Immune Suppression by SARS-CoV-2 mRNA Vaccinations: The role of G-quadruplexes, exosomes and microRNAs"
https://www.authorea.com/users/455597/ar...

Yours sincerely,

Brian Sandle