Modeling informing the decision to extend lockdown
Ben Smith made this Official Information request to Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet
The request was refused by Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet.
From: Ben Smith
Dear Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet,
On 20 April 2020, Cabinet reportedly met and made a decision to extend New Zealand's lockdown by several days. In the press conference of 20th April 2020, the Prime Minister said that she had waited until that late date to make a decision because of the necessity of considering the latest evidence. I applaud her awareness of the need to consider the very latest information in such a fast-changing situation.
I would like to request under the OIA copies of all of the modeling that was considered by the Prime Minister, her office, and the Cabinet in making this decision to extend the Level 4 lockdown - both (1) scientific pandemic modeling around the prediction of the pandemic spread, as well as (2) any economic modeling predicting economic outcomes under different courses of action. This would include any scientific papers or scientific reports but could also include modeling in other formats, like executive summaries from modeling reports or any electronic modeling data or online resources or outputs of models that may have been considered by cabinet.
If it is difficult to ascertain which particular modeling received by the PM and Cabinet was actually considered by them, please simply send all relevant modeling that they received in order to make this decision.
I would be grateful if can provide this information to me and to the public so that we can understand the basis on which this decision was made.
I understand that now is a very busy time, and I am respectful of the pressing matters that you must have before you and respect that because of other priorities it may take time for you to respond.
I'm also happy for you to contact me to discuss this request.
Ngā mihi nui,
Ben Smith
From: Information [DPMC]
Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet
Tēnā koe
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From: Information [DPMC]
Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet
[UNCLASSIFIED]
Kia ora
Thank you for your request under the Official Information Act 1982 which was received on 1 May 2020, copied below. A response will be provided in accordance with the Act (please see the Office of the Ombudsman Website for more details - http://www.ombudsman.parliament.nz/).
Please note that the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (DPMC) and its departmental agency, the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), are directly involved in the government response to COVID-19. Due to this, our timelines to respond to your request may be impacted. Should this occur, we will endeavour to keep you updated on the status of our response to your request. We appreciate your patience and understanding.
DPMC may publish the response to your Official Information Act (OIA) request.
When you are provided with a response to this request, you will be informed about whether the response to your OIA request will be published. If DPMC does publish the response to your OIA request, personal information, including your name and contact details, will be removed. This publication process does not apply to extension letters or transfers.
Ngā mihi
Ministerial Coordinator
Ministerial Services
Strategy, Governance and Engagement
Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet
E [DPMC request email]
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From: Information [DPMC]
Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet
[UNCLASSIFIED]
Kia ora Mr Smith
Please see the attached letter regarding your recent OIA request.
Ngā mihi
Ministerial Coordinator
Ministerial Services
Strategy, Governance and Engagement
Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet
E [1][DPMC request email]
[2]cid:image002.png@01D43609.296F69C0
The information contained in this email message is for the attention of
the intended recipient only and is not necessarily the official view or
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From: Ben Smith
Kia ora coordinator, Ms. Corbett,
Thank you for your response of 8 May. In your response you redirected my request to the Prime Minister as you said the information is more closely connected to her. Thank you for forwarding my request to the Prime Minister, and I look forward to her response.
However, my request was for modeling information considered not only by the Prime Minister but also by Cabinet. Accordingly, although it will be very helpful to understand the modeling information that the Prime Minister considered on 20 April, I would also like to know which modeling information that Cabinet as a group considered when it met on that date. Please correct me if I'm wrong but it seems like the DPMC should be the right place to request that information, no?
To repeat the original request, that was for "all of the modeling that was considered by...the Cabinet in making this decision to extend the Level 4 lockdown - both (1) scientific pandemic modeling around the prediction of the pandemic spread, as well as (2) any economic modeling predicting economic outcomes under different courses of action. This would include any scientific papers or scientific reports but could also include modeling in other formats, like executive summaries from modeling reports or any electronic modeling data or online resources or outputs of models that may have been considered by cabinet.
"If it is difficult to ascertain which particular modeling received by the PM and Cabinet was actually considered by them, please simply send all relevant modeling that they received in order to make this decision."
Thank you very much for your help.
Ngā mihi
Ben Smith
Yours sincerely,
Ben Smith
From: Information [DPMC]
Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet
[UNCLASSIFIED]
Kia ora Mr Smith
I can advise that the response from the Prime Minister will include
information that was considered by Cabinet. This is why we transferred
your request to the Prime Minister for response.
Please let us know if you have any further questions.
Ngā mihi
Ministerial Advisor
Ministerial Services
Strategy, Governance and Engagement
Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet
E [1][DPMC request email]
[2]cid:image002.png@01D43609.296F69C0
The information contained in this email message is for the attention of
the intended recipient only and is not necessarily the official view or
communication of the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet. If you
are not the intended recipient you must not disclose, copy or distribute
this message or the information in it. If you have received this message
in error, please destroy the email and notify the sender immediately.
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From: Tabitha Spicer
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2020 06 09 Letter to Ben Smith.pdf
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Dear Ben Smith
On behalf of Raj Nahna, I attach a letter in response to your request
received on 8 May 2020.
Yours sincerely
Tabitha Spicer
Private Secretary (Administration) │Office of the Prime Minister
DDI : + 64 4 817 8700
Level 9 Executive Wing, Parliament Buildings, Wellington 6011
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Ben Smith left an annotation ()
I note that the following document is included within the "proactive release" and partially addresses the question:
https://covid19.govt.nz/assets/resources...
accessible via link from:
https://covid19.govt.nz/updates-and-reso...
I would have preferred more detailed modeling data, as the current paper only includes two brief graphs of model results without describing methods and assumptions used.
Link to this