Tēnā kou,

I am trying to understand the effects the Bail Amendment Act 2013 has had since it came into effect in September 2013. In particular, I'm interested in both the effect it has had on reducing offending and how much it has increased imprisonment on remand.

I'm aware that the Department of Corrections publishes quarterly statistics on prison populations that include separate figures for remand prisoners[1].

These figures show an increase in the remand prison population of 74% between September 2013[2] and December 2016[3], compared with a 4% rise in the sentenced prisoner population. However it's difficult to tell from these figures alone how much this increase in the remand population has been due to the effects of the Bail Amendment Act 2013.

I'm also aware that the Regulatory Impact Statement for the Bail Amendment Bill[4] makes various estimates regarding the effects of the Bill. For example, on page 12, one of the benefits listed for applying standard adult tests for bail to defendents aged 17-19 is:

"Estimated 2-7% reduction in offences committed on bail per year by defendants aged 17-19 who have previously served a prison sentence."

The Regulatory Impact Statement also makes clear the assumptions on which its estimates of costs and benefits were based, including this one:

"The average impact of imposing a reverse burden of proof on a subgroup of defendants that 5% of the defendants will shift from spending time on bail to spending time in custody."

I would like to request the following:
- An updated version of Table A3.1 from the Regulatory Impact Statement, including data from 2010-2016 (or 2015 if data from 2016 is not yet available)
- An updated version of Figure A3.2 from the Regulatory Impact Statement, separating data from 2010-2013 and 2014-2016 (or 2015 if data from 2016 is not yet available)
- Any analyses that have been done to see how well the estimated costs and benefits of the Bail Amendment Bill and the assumptions on which they were based, as identified in the Regulatory Impact Statement, compare with what has happened since the Bail Amendment Act came into effect.

Nāku iti noa, nā
Mark Hanna

[1] http://www.corrections.govt.nz/resources...
[2] http://www.corrections.govt.nz/resources...
[3] http://www.corrections.govt.nz/resources...
[4] https://www.justice.govt.nz/assets/Docum...