Calculation of budgets in "Potential long-term pathways to a low carbon economy for New Zealand"

Simon Johnson made this Official Information request to Ministry for the Environment

The request was successful.

From: Simon Johnson

To the Ministry for the Environment,

Dear Josh,

I have some further requests for information related to the document "Potential long-term pathways to a low carbon economy for New Zealand" you kindly provided to me on 9 September 2016.

The document (which I note is not Ministry advice nor Ministry policy) does not quantify the three carbon budgets (a 10th percentile, a median and a 90th percentile) presented in the graph titled Figure 1. The working calculations are not included in the document.

Please will the Ministry provide me with the working calculations for the three budgets?

Thank you,

Yours faithfully,

Simon Johnson

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From: Ministerials
Ministry for the Environment

Attachment Contraction and convergence spreadsheet.v5 1601669.xlsx
860K Download View as HTML

Dear Mr Johnson


Please find attached a copy of a spreadsheet that shows working


Please be aware that:


1)      This analysis was used to inform officials’ thinking and does not
represent Government policy.

2)      Detailed records of the method used to construct the graph were
not recorded.

3)      The calculation of the New Zealand ‘share’ of all GHG emissions
for each pathway in Figure 1 appears to be based on linear interpolation
between current shares of emissions of each gas considered (CO[2], CH[4,
]N[2]O) and an equal per capita emission basis in 2050, assuming a global
pathway of emissions reductions that has been fitted to a quartic


If you wish to talk to an official surrounding this material please get in
touch with me and I will pass on details.


Kind regards


Josh Bibby  – Adviser, Executive Relations

Ministry for the Environment – Manatu Mo Te Taiao

DDI: 04 439 7688 Website:

23 Kate Sheppard Place, PO Box 10362, Wellington 6143


 Please consider the environment before printing this email



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