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Communications and Ministerial Services | Corporate Services

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-----Original Message-----
From: Hayden <[FOI #33296 email]>
Sent: Tuesday, 16 December 2025 6:10 pm
To: [Ministry of Justice request email]
Subject: Official Information request - Crime Rates, Economic
Correlations, Corrections Costs, and Justice System Demand Analysis

 

Dear Ministry of Justice,

 

I am writing to request information under the Official Information Act
1982 regarding crime rates, justice system utilization, corrections costs,
and their relationship to economic conditions. This request focuses on
whether the Ministry monitors and analyzes economic drivers of crime and
coordinates this information with economic policy agencies.

1. CRIME DATA AND ECONOMIC CORRELATIONS

 

1.1 Crime Rate Time-Series Data:

 

Please provide for the period 2015-2024 (or most recent available):

 

Monthly recorded crime rates for:

        Violent crime (assault, robbery, homicide)

        Family violence incidents

        Property crime (burglary, theft, shoplifting)

        Drug offences

        Fraud and white-collar crime

    Data disaggregated by:

        Geographic region

        Offender age group

        Offender ethnicity

        Victim demographics

 

1.2 Economic Stress Crime Indicators:

 

Please provide any Ministry analysis of:

 

Correlations between unemployment rates and property crime rates

    Correlations between cost of living increases and shoplifting/theft

    Correlations between interest rate increases and family violence

    Correlations between benefit sanction rates and crime rates

    Crime pattern changes during economic recessions versus growth periods

 

1.3 Offender Economic Circumstances:

 

Please provide data on:

 

Employment status of offenders at time of offending

    Benefit recipient status of offenders

    Housing status (homeowner, renter, homeless) of offenders

    Debt levels and financial stress indicators in offender backgrounds

    Whether "financial hardship" or "economic stress" is systematically
coded as an offending factor

 

2. COST OF CRIME ANALYSIS

 

2.1 Updated Cost of Crime Estimates:

 

In my previous request to Treasury (OIA 20250861), I noted that Treasury's
last comprehensive cost-of-crime analysis dates to 2003/04 at $9.1
billion. Please provide:

 

The Ministry of Justice's current estimate of total annual cost of crime
(most recent year available)

    Methodology for calculating this figure

    Breakdown by crime categories (violent, property, white-collar, etc.)

    When this analysis was last updated

 

2.2 Cost Categories:

 

Please provide breakdown of crime costs including:

 

Direct justice system costs (Police, courts, prosecution, legal aid)

    Corrections costs (imprisonment, community sentences, rehabilitation)

    Victim costs (medical treatment, counselling, lost productivity)

    Property damage and theft losses

    Social costs (fear of crime, reduced quality of life)

    Lost economic productivity from incarceration

 

2.3 Cost Projections:

 

Please provide:

 

10-year projections of justice system costs under current policy settings

    30-year projections if available

    Assumptions about crime rate trends underlying these projections

    Whether projections assume economic conditions remain stable

 

3. CORRECTIONS SYSTEM DEMAND AND COSTS

 

3.1 Prison Population Data:

 

Please provide for 2015-2024:

 

Monthly prison population (total and per capita)

    Average sentence length by offence type

    Remand versus sentenced prisoner ratios

    Re-imprisonment rates (recidivism)

    Prison population projections to 2030, 2040

 

3.2 Economic Circumstances of Prisoners:

 

Please provide any Ministry analysis of:

 

Employment status of individuals prior to imprisonment

    Benefit receipt history of prisoners

    Educational attainment levels

    Intergenerational patterns (children of prisoners becoming prisoners)

    Whether prisoners come disproportionately from economically deprived
communities

 

3.3 Cost per Prisoner:

 

Please provide:

 

Average annual cost per prisoner (most recent year)

    Total annual corrections budget 2015-2024

    Projected corrections costs to 2030

    Analysis of whether corrections spending growth is sustainable

 

4. REOFFENDING AND INTERGENERATIONAL CRIME

 

4.1 Recidivism Analysis:

 

Please provide:

 

Reoffending rates within 1 year, 2 years, 5 years of release

    Analysis of factors predicting reoffending (unemployment,
homelessness, lack of support)

    Cost of reoffending versus cost of rehabilitation and support

    Whether economic support upon release reduces reoffending

 

4.2 Intergenerational Justice Involvement:

 

Please provide any Ministry analysis of:

 

Children of prisoners: likelihood of future offending and imprisonment

    Whether children in Oranga Tamariki care show elevated justice
involvement

    Whether poverty and welfare dependency predict intergenerational crime
patterns

    Fiscal cost of intergenerational crime cycles

 

4.3 Breaking the Cycle:

 

Please provide any Ministry analysis of:

 

Cost-effectiveness of prevention versus incarceration

    Whether early intervention in high-risk families reduces long-term
justice costs

    Return on investment for social programs preventing crime versus
managing offenders

 

5. PREVENTIVE VS. PUNITIVE APPROACHES

 

5.1 Economic Efficiency Analysis:

 

Please provide any Ministry analysis comparing:

 

Cost of punitive justice approaches (longer sentences, more imprisonment)
versus preventive/rehabilitative approaches

    International comparisons: countries with lower imprisonment rates and
their justice costs

    Whether reducing poverty and inequality would be more cost-effective
than expanding corrections capacity

 

5.2 Alternative Justice Models:

 

Please provide any Ministry analysis of:

 

Restorative justice outcomes and cost-effectiveness

    Community-based sentences versus imprisonment: recidivism and cost
comparison

    Therapeutic courts (drug courts, mental health courts) versus
traditional prosecution

    Whether addressing root causes (addiction, mental health, poverty) is
cheaper than punishment

 

5.3 Māori Justice Outcomes:

 

Please provide:

 

Māori imprisonment rates compared to general population

    Analysis of drivers of Māori overrepresentation in justice system

    Whether economic deprivation explains disparities

    Cost-benefit analysis of addressing Māori economic inequality versus
current justice expenditure on Māori offenders

 

6. COORDINATION WITH ECONOMIC POLICY AGENCIES

 

6.1 Information Sharing with Treasury:

 

Please provide documentation of:

 

What crime and corrections cost data the Ministry routinely provides to
Treasury

    Whether Treasury incorporates justice system cost projections into
fiscal planning

    Whether the Ministry has warned Treasury about justice cost blowouts
driven by economic policy settings

    Any memoranda of understanding regarding justice system fiscal impacts

 

6.2 Coordination with Reserve Bank:

 

Please provide documentation of:

 

Whether the Ministry notifies RBNZ about crime pattern correlations with
economic conditions

    Whether RBNZ consults the Ministry before OCR decisions about
potential crime impacts

    Any joint analysis between Ministry of Justice and RBNZ on monetary
policy and crime

 

6.3 Cross-Agency Coordination:

 

Please confirm:

 

Whether the Ministry coordinates with MSD on benefit policy impacts on
crime

    Whether the Ministry coordinates with Health NZ on mental
health/addiction drivers of crime

    Whether the Ministry coordinates with Oranga Tamariki on child
welfare-to-justice pathways

    Any formal mechanisms for the Ministry to influence social policy
based on crime prevention evidence

 

7. ECONOMIC POLICY IMPACT ASSESSMENT

 

7.1 Budget Measure Impacts:

 

Please provide any Ministry analysis of crime impacts from:

 

Benefit cuts or sanctions → crime rate changes

    Social housing reduction → property crime and homelessness-related
offending

    Mental health service cuts → crime committed by people with untreated
mental illness

    Education funding changes → youth crime patterns

 

7.2 OCR and Monetary Policy Impacts:

 

Please provide any Ministry analysis of:

 

Whether OCR increases and resulting financial stress correlate with crime
increases

    Historical analysis: previous OCR tightening cycles and crime patterns

    Whether mortgage stress and housing insecurity drive family violence
and property crime

 

7.3 Cost-Benefit of Economic Policy:

 

Please provide any Ministry analysis of:

 

Whether fiscal savings from reduced social spending are offset by
increased justice system costs

    Examples where cutting preventive programs led to increased crime
costs exceeding savings

    Whether the Ministry has calculated the justice system cost of
economic austerity

 

8. FAMILY VIOLENCE AND ECONOMIC STRESS

 

8.1 Family Violence Data:

 

Please provide for 2015-2024:

 

Monthly family violence incident reports

    Protection order applications

    Family violence prosecutions and convictions

    Family violence homicides

 

8.2 Economic Correlations:

 

Please provide any Ministry analysis of:

 

Whether family violence increases during economic downturns

    Correlations between unemployment and family violence

    Correlations between housing stress and family violence

    Whether financial counselling/support reduces family violence

 

8.3 Cost Analysis:

 

Please provide:

 

Total annual cost of family violence (justice system, health, social
services, lost productivity)

    Whether addressing economic stress would reduce family violence and
associated costs

    Cost-benefit analysis of economic support versus family violence
intervention

 

9. YOUTH JUSTICE

 

9.1 Youth Crime Trends:

 

Please provide:

 

Youth offending rates 2015-2024 by age group and offence type

    Youth justice facility population trends

    Projections of future youth justice demand

 

9.2 Risk Factors:

 

Please provide any Ministry analysis of:

 

Economic circumstances of young offenders (family poverty, benefit
dependency, housing instability)

    Educational disengagement and economic insecurity as crime predictors

    Whether children from economically deprived backgrounds are
overrepresented in youth justice

 

9.3 Prevention Investment:

 

Please provide:

 

Cost comparison: youth justice intervention versus early childhood support

    Whether investing in child poverty reduction would reduce long-term
youth justice costs

    International examples of countries that reduced youth crime through
social investment

 

10. VICTIM SUPPORT AND COSTS

 

10.1 Victim Costs:

 

Please provide:

 

Annual victim support service costs

    Victim compensation scheme payments

    ACC claims related to crime injuries

    Total economic burden on crime victims

 

10.2 Victim Demographics:

 

Please provide any analysis of:

 

Whether economically vulnerable people are disproportionately crime
victims

    Whether poverty areas have higher victimization rates

    Whether crime creates poverty (victims losing income, incurring costs)

 

11. JUSTICE SYSTEM CAPACITY

 

11.1 Court Backlogs:

 

Please provide:

 

Current court case backlog levels

    Average time from charge to trial/sentencing

    Whether backlogs have worsened and drivers of this

    Cost of court delays to defendants, victims, and system

 

11.2 Legal Aid:

 

Please provide:

 

Legal aid expenditure trends 2015-2024

    Number of people requiring legal aid

    Whether legal aid eligibility captures people in financial hardship

    Unmet legal aid demand

 

11.3 System Sustainability:

 

Please provide:

 

Whether current justice system funding is adequate for demand

    Projected funding gaps if crime rates don't decrease

    Whether economic conditions are creating justice system demand that
exceeds capacity

 

12. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

 

12.1 Imprisonment Rates:

 

Please provide:

 

New Zealand's imprisonment rate compared to OECD countries

    Countries with lower imprisonment rates: their crime rates and
approaches

    Cost comparison: NZ justice system versus more rehabilitation-focused
countries

 

12.2 Best Practice:

 

Please provide any Ministry analysis of:

 

International evidence on economic security and crime reduction

    Countries that successfully reduced crime through social investment

    Whether New Zealand could learn from Nordic models combining social
welfare and low crime

 

13. LONGITUDINAL AND CAUSAL ANALYSIS

 

13.1 Life Course Studies:

 

Please provide any Ministry analysis tracking:

 

Poverty → educational failure → unemployment → crime pathways

    Childhood adversity (abuse, neglect, poverty) → adult offending

    Intergenerational transmission of offending in economically deprived
families

 

13.2 Natural Experiments:

 

Please provide any Ministry analysis of crime impacts from:

 

1991 benefit cuts → crime rate changes

    2008 GFC → crime patterns

    COVID-19 economic support → crime trends versus periods without
support

    2021-2023 OCR increases → property crime and family violence patterns

 

14. TRANSPARENCY AND ACCOUNTABILITY

 

14.1 Published Research:

 

Please confirm:

 

Whether any of the analyses requested above exist but have not been
publicly released

    Reasons for non-publication

    Whether the Ministry publishes crime data correlated with economic
indicators

 

14.2 Ministerial Briefings:**

 

Please provide (titles and dates):

 

Briefings to Ministers in the last 5 years regarding economic drivers of
crime

    Warnings about justice system costs increasing due to economic policy
settings

    Recommendations to Cabinet regarding economic policy settings to
reduce crime

 

15. CLARIFICATION QUESTIONS

 

15.1 Does the Ministry of Justice consider it within its mandate to
advocate for economic policy settings that reduce crime, or is the
Ministry limited to managing crime regardless of its economic causes?

 

15.2 Has the Ministry ever been directed not to analyze or publish
correlations between economic conditions and crime rates?

 

15.3 If the Ministry has evidence that economic hardship drives crime,
does the Ministry have an obligation to make this evidence public and
advocate for addressing root causes?

 

15.4 Does the Ministry believe that addressing poverty and inequality
would be more cost-effective than expanding the justice system to manage
crime caused by economic deprivation?

RATIONALE FOR THIS REQUEST:

 

This request addresses whether New Zealand's justice system is documenting
and responding to evidence that economic policy is driving crime.

 

Criminological research establishes clear links between:

 

Economic deprivation and property crime

    Unemployment and offending

    Financial stress and family violence

    Inequality and violent crime

 

If the Ministry is tracking these correlations but not sharing them with
economic policy agencies, this represents a system coordination failure.

 

If the Ministry is not analyzing these pathways despite having the data,
this represents a missed opportunity for evidence-based crime prevention.

 

If the Ministry has evidence of economic drivers of crime but has been
prevented from publishing it or advocating for addressing root causes,
this raises serious policy questions.

 

The public has a right to know:

 

Whether crime is driven by economic conditions

    Whether addressing economic security would be more cost-effective than
expanding the justice system

    Whether economic policy agencies are informed of crime impacts before
making decisions

    Whether justice system costs from economic policy decisions are
factored into fiscal planning

 

This request is made in context of:

 

Treasury's claim (OIA 20250861) that no analysis exists of justice costs
related to economic policy settings

    The need to understand whether service delivery agencies coordinate
with policy agencies on demand drivers

    Rising corrections costs and questions about sustainability

 

The Ministry's mission includes reducing crime and improving justice
outcomes. This requires understanding and addressing root causes of
offending, including economic determinants. Transparency about economic
drivers of crime is essential for evidence-based policy.

 

I am happy to discuss this request if clarification would be helpful.

 

Yours faithfully,

Hayden

 

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