Justice Centre | 19 Aitken Street
DX SX10088 | Wel ington
T 04 918 8800 |
F 04 918 8820
[email address] | www.justice.govt.nz
26 January 2026
Hayden
[FYI request #33296 email]
Ref: OIA 128832
Tēnā koe Hayden
Official Information Act request: Crime rates and economic correlations
Thank you for your email of 16 December 2025, requesting information under the Of icial
Information Act 1982 (the Act), regarding crime rates, economic correlations, corrections costs,
and justice system demand analysis. Specifically, you requested:
I am writing to request information under the Official Information Act 1982 regarding crime
rates, justice system utilization, corrections costs, and their relationship to economic
conditions. This request focuses on whether the Ministry monitors and analyzes economic
drivers of crime and coordinates this information with economic policy agencies.
1. CRIME DATA AND ECONOMIC CORRELATIONS
1.1 Crime Rate Time-Series Data:
Please provide for the period 2015-2024 (or most recent available):
•
Monthly recorded crime rates for:
o
Violent crime (assault, robbery, homicide)
o
Family violence incidents
o
Property crime (burglary, theft, shoplifting)
o
Drug offences
o
Fraud and white-collar crime
•
Data disaggregated by:
o
Geographic region
o
Offender age group
o
Offender ethnicity
o
Victim demographics
1.2 Economic Stress Crime Indicators:
Please provide any Ministry analysis of:
•
Correlations between unemployment rates and property crime rates
•
Correlations between cost of living increases and shoplifting/theft
•
Correlations between interest rate increases and family violence
•
Correlations between benefit sanction rates and crime rates
•
Crime pattern changes during economic recessions versus growth periods
1.3 Offender Economic Circumstances:
Please provide data on:
•
Employment status of offenders at time of offending
•
Benefit recipient status of offenders
•
Housing status (homeowner, renter, homeless) of offenders
•
Debt levels and financial stress indicators in offender backgrounds
•
Whether "financial hardship" or "economic stress" is systematically coded as an
offending factor
2. COST OF CRIME ANALYSIS
2.1 Updated Cost of Crime Estimates:
In my previous request to Treasury (OIA 20250861), I noted that Treasury's last
comprehensive cost-of-crime analysis dates to 2003/04 at $9.1 bil ion. Please provide:
•
The Ministry of Justice's current estimate of total annual cost of crime (most recent
year available)
•
Methodology for calculating this figure
•
Breakdown by crime categories (violent, property, white-collar, etc.)
•
When this analysis was last updated
2.2 Cost Categories:
Please provide breakdown of crime costs including:
•
Direct justice system costs (Police, courts, prosecution, legal aid)
•
Corrections costs (imprisonment, community sentences, rehabilitation)
•
Victim costs (medical treatment, counselling, lost productivity)
•
Property damage and theft losses
•
Social costs (fear of crime, reduced quality of life)
•
Lost economic productivity from incarceration
2.3 Cost Projections:
Please provide:
•
10-year projections of justice system costs under current policy settings
•
30-year projections if available
•
Assumptions about crime rate trends underlying these projections
•
Whether projections assume economic conditions remain stable
3. CORRECTIONS SYSTEM DEMAND AND COSTS
3.1 Prison Population Data:
Please provide for 2015-2024:
•
Monthly prison population (total and per capita)
•
Average sentence length by offence type
•
Remand versus sentenced prisoner ratios
•
Re-imprisonment rates (recidivism)
•
Prison population projections to 2030, 2040
3.2 Economic Circumstances of Prisoners:
Please provide any Ministry analysis of:
•
Employment status of individuals prior to imprisonment
•
Benefit receipt history of prisoners
•
Educational attainment levels
•
Intergenerational patterns (children of prisoners becoming prisoners)
•
Whether prisoners come disproportionately from economically deprived
communities
3.3 Cost per Prisoner:
Please provide:
•
Average annual cost per prisoner (most recent year)
•
Total annual corrections budget 2015-2024
•
Projected corrections costs to 2030
•
Analysis of whether corrections spending growth is sustainable
4. REOFFENDING AND INTERGENERATIONAL CRIME
4.1 Recidivism Analysis:
Please provide:
•
Reoffending rates within 1 year, 2 years, 5 years of release
•
Analysis of factors predicting reoffending (unemployment, homelessness, lack of
support)
•
Cost of reoffending versus cost of rehabilitation and support
•
Whether economic support upon release reduces reoffending
4.2 Intergenerational Justice Involvement:
Please provide any Ministry analysis of:
•
Children of prisoners: likelihood of future offending and imprisonment
•
Whether children in Oranga Tamariki care show elevated justice involvement
•
Whether poverty and welfare dependency predict intergenerational crime patterns
•
Fiscal cost of intergenerational crime cycles
4.3 Breaking the Cycle:
Please provide any Ministry analysis of:
•
Cost-effectiveness of prevention versus incarceration
•
Whether early intervention in high-risk families reduces long-term justice costs
•
Return on investment for social programs preventing crime versus managing
offenders
5. PREVENTIVE VS. PUNITIVE APPROACHES
5.1 Economic Efficiency Analysis:
Please provide any Ministry analysis comparing:
•
Cost of punitive justice approaches (longer sentences, more imprisonment) versus
preventive/rehabilitative approaches
•
International comparisons: countries with lower imprisonment rates and their
justice costs
•
Whether reducing poverty and inequality would be more cost-effective than
expanding corrections capacity
5.2 Alternative Justice Models:
Please provide any Ministry analysis of:
•
Restorative justice outcomes and cost-effectiveness
•
Community-based sentences versus imprisonment: recidivism and cost
comparison
•
Therapeutic courts (drug courts, mental health courts) versus traditional
prosecution
•
Whether addressing root causes (addiction, mental health, poverty) is cheaper
than punishment
5.3 Māori Justice Outcomes:
Please provide:
•
Māori imprisonment rates compared to general population
•
Analysis of drivers of Māori overrepresentation in justice system
•
Whether economic deprivation explains disparities
•
Cost-benefit analysis of addressing Māori economic inequality versus current
justice expenditure on Māori offenders
6. COORDINATION WITH ECONOMIC POLICY AGENCIES
6.1 Information Sharing with Treasury:
Please provide documentation of:
•
What crime and corrections cost data the Ministry routinely provides to Treasury
•
Whether Treasury incorporates justice system cost projections into fiscal planning
•
Whether the Ministry has warned Treasury about justice cost blowouts driven by
economic policy settings
•
Any memoranda of understanding regarding justice system fiscal impacts
6.2 Coordination with Reserve Bank:
Please provide documentation of:
•
Whether the Ministry notifies RBNZ about crime pattern correlations with economic
conditions
•
Whether RBNZ consults the Ministry before OCR decisions about potential crime
impacts
•
Any joint analysis between Ministry of Justice and RBNZ on monetary policy and
crime
6.3 Cross-Agency Coordination:
Please confirm:
•
Whether the Ministry coordinates with MSD on benefit policy impacts on crime
•
Whether the Ministry coordinates with Health NZ on mental health/addiction drivers
of crime
•
Whether the Ministry coordinates with Oranga Tamariki on child welfare-to-justice
pathways
•
Any formal mechanisms for the Ministry to influence social policy based on crime
prevention evidence
7. ECONOMIC POLICY IMPACT ASSESSMENT
7.1 Budget Measure Impacts:
Please provide any Ministry analysis of crime impacts from:
•
Benefit cuts or sanctions → crime rate changes
•
Social housing reduction → property crime and homelessness-related offending
•
Mental health service cuts → crime committed by people with untreated mental
illness
•
Education funding changes → youth crime patterns
7.2 OCR and Monetary Policy Impacts:
Please provide any Ministry analysis of:
•
Whether OCR increases and resulting financial stress correlate with crime
increases
•
Historical analysis: previous OCR tightening cycles and crime patterns
•
Whether mortgage stress and housing insecurity drive family violence and property
crime
7.3 Cost-Benefit of Economic Policy:
Please provide any Ministry analysis of:
•
Whether fiscal savings from reduced social spending are offset by increased
justice system costs
•
Examples where cutting preventive programs led to increased crime costs
exceeding savings
•
Whether the Ministry has calculated the justice system cost of economic austerity
8. FAMILY VIOLENCE AND ECONOMIC STRESS
8.1 Family Violence Data:
Please provide for 2015-2024:
•
Monthly family violence incident reports
•
Protection order applications
•
Family violence prosecutions and convictions
•
Family violence homicides
8.2 Economic Correlations:
Please provide any Ministry analysis of:
•
Whether family violence increases during economic downturns
•
Correlations between unemployment and family violence
•
Correlations between housing stress and family violence
•
Whether financial counselling/support reduces family violence
8.3 Cost Analysis:
Please provide:
•
Total annual cost of family violence (justice system, health, social services, lost
productivity)
•
Whether addressing economic stress would reduce family violence and associated
costs
•
Cost-benefit analysis of economic support versus family violence intervention
9. YOUTH JUSTICE
9.1 Youth Crime Trends:
Please provide:
•
Youth offending rates 2015-2024 by age group and offence type
•
Youth justice facility population trends
•
Projections of future youth justice demand
9.2 Risk Factors:
Please provide any Ministry analysis of:
•
Economic circumstances of young offenders (family poverty, benefit dependency,
housing instability)
•
Educational disengagement and economic insecurity as crime predictors
•
Whether children from economically deprived backgrounds are overrepresented in
youth justice
9.3 Prevention Investment:
Please provide:
•
Cost comparison: youth justice intervention versus early childhood support
•
Whether investing in child poverty reduction would reduce long-term youth justice
costs
•
International examples of countries that reduced youth crime through social
investment
10. VICTIM SUPPORT AND COSTS
10.1 Victim Costs:
Please provide:
•
Annual victim support service costs
•
Victim compensation scheme payments
•
ACC claims related to crime injuries
•
Total economic burden on crime victims
10.2 Victim Demographics:
Please provide any analysis of:
•
Whether economically vulnerable people are disproportionately crime victims
•
Whether poverty areas have higher victimization rates
•
Whether crime creates poverty (victims losing income, incurring costs)
11. JUSTICE SYSTEM CAPACITY
11.1 Court Backlogs:
Please provide:
•
Current court case backlog levels
•
Average time from charge to trial/sentencing
•
Whether backlogs have worsened and drivers of this
•
Cost of court delays to defendants, victims, and system
11.2 Legal Aid:
Please provide:
•
Legal aid expenditure trends 2015-2024
•
Number of people requiring legal aid
•
Whether legal aid eligibility captures people in financial hardship
•
Unmet legal aid demand
11.3 System Sustainability:
Please provide:
•
Whether current justice system funding is adequate for demand
•
Projected funding gaps if crime rates don't decrease
•
Whether economic conditions are creating justice system demand that exceeds
capacity
12. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
12.1 Imprisonment Rates:
Please provide:
•
New Zealand's imprisonment rate compared to OECD countries
•
Countries with lower imprisonment rates: their crime rates and approaches
•
Cost comparison: NZ justice system versus more rehabilitation-focused countries
12.2 Best Practice:
Please provide any Ministry analysis of:
•
International evidence on economic security and crime reduction
•
Countries that successful y reduced crime through social investment
•
Whether New Zealand could learn from Nordic models combining social welfare
and low crime
13. LONGITUDINAL AND CAUSAL ANALYSIS
13.1 Life Course Studies:
Please provide any Ministry analysis tracking:
•
Poverty → educational failure → unemployment → crime pathways
•
Childhood adversity (abuse, neglect, poverty) → adult offending
•
Intergenerational transmission of offending in economically deprived families
13.2 Natural Experiments:
Please provide any Ministry analysis of crime impacts from:
•
1991 benefit cuts → crime rate changes
•
2008 GFC → crime patterns
•
COVID-19 economic support → crime trends versus periods without support
•
2021-2023 OCR increases → property crime and family violence patterns
14. TRANSPARENCY AND ACCOUNTABILITY
14.1 Published Research:
Please confirm:
•
Whether any of the analyses requested above exist but have not been publicly
released
•
Reasons for non-publication
•
Whether the Ministry publishes crime data correlated with economic indicators
14.2 Ministerial Briefings:**
Please provide (titles and dates):
•
Briefings to Ministers in the last 5 years regarding economic drivers of crime
•
Warnings about justice system costs increasing due to economic policy settings
•
Recommendations to Cabinet regarding economic policy settings to reduce crime
15. CLARIFICATION QUESTIONS
15.1 Does the Ministry of Justice consider it within its mandate to advocate for
economic policy settings that reduce crime, or is the Ministry limited to managing
crime regardless of its economic causes?
15.2 Has the Ministry ever been directed not to analyze or publish correlations
between economic conditions and crime rates?
15.3 If the Ministry has evidence that economic hardship drives crime, does the
Ministry have an obligation to make this evidence public and advocate for
addressing root causes?
15.4 Does the Ministry believe that addressing poverty and inequality would be more
cost-effective than expanding the justice system to manage crime caused by
economic deprivation?
For ease of interpretation and response, your request has been reformatted from its original
state. Much of your request is for information not held by the Ministry of Justice (the Ministry)
and has therefore been partially transferred to either the Department of Corrections
(Corrections) and Oranga Tamariki, for response.
A breakdown of what has been transferred is as follows:
Section Section title
Transferred to
3
Corrections System Demand and Costs Corrections
4
Reoffending and Intergenerational Crime Corrections
5.3
Māori Justice Outcomes
Corrections
9.1
Youth Crime Trends
Oranga Tamariki
9.3
Prevention Investment
Oranga Tamariki
12.1
Imprisonment Rates
Corrections
You wil hear further from Corrections, Police and Oranga Tamariki regarding the above
sections, in due course. Contact can be made by email to: [email address];
[email address]; and [email address] respectively.
Additionally, parts 1, 5.3, 9.1, 10, 12.2 and 13 were sought to be transferred to the New Zealand
Police, however this transfer was declined as either the information is already publicly available
or what is requested is not held. The Ministry’s response wil therefore refer to these parts in our
substantive response.
The remaining parts of your request require substantial collation and research, as well as
external consultation. Therefore, in order to make a decision on your request, the due date to
respond has been extended. You can expect a response to the remainder of your request by no
later than 10 April 2026, which takes into account Waitangi Day and Easter public holidays,
which are not considered ‘working days’ under section 2 of the Act.
If you are not satisfied with the way your request is being managed, you have the right to make
a complaint to the Ombudsman under section 28 of the Act. The Office of the Ombudsman may
be contacted by phone on: 0800 802 602, by email at: [email address], or via
the webform:
Make a complaint (for members of the public) | Ombudsman New Zealand.
Nāku noa, nā
Jan Morison
Acting Manager, Ministerial Services
