Actuarial Modelling of Veteran Entitlement Liabilities
SPENCER JONES made this Official Information request to The Treasury
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From: SPENCER JONES
Dear Treasury OIA Team,
Under the Official Information Act 1982, I request information relating to fiscal modelling and actuarial analysis of veteran entitlement liabilities in New Zealand.
Specifically, I request copies of any actuarial models, fiscal projections, scenario analyses, or policy briefings prepared by or for the Treasury relating to the long-term fiscal liability associated with entitlements administered under the Veterans’ Support Act 2014.
This request includes, but is not limited to:
1. Any actuarial valuations, forecasts, or modelling estimating the current or projected cost of veteran entitlements administered under the Veterans’ Support Act 2014.
2. Any scenario modelling assessing the fiscal impact of potential changes to the statutory definition of “veteran”, including modelling relating to non-operational service personnel.
3. Any fiscal risk assessments, sensitivity analyses, or long-term projections prepared for Budget Economic and Fiscal Updates, Half-Year Economic and Fiscal Updates, or other fiscal strategy reports that consider veteran entitlements.
4. Any modelling or financial analysis prepared in response to judicial decisions affecting veteran entitlements, including analysis of potential fiscal impacts arising from relevant case law or appeal decisions.
5. Any briefings, aide-memoire, Cabinet papers, or internal Treasury advice discussing the long-term fiscal risk or liability associated with veteran entitlements or potential expansion of eligibility under the Veterans’ Support Act 2014.
6. Any actuarial or demographic modelling estimating the current or projected population of veterans eligible for entitlements under the Veterans’ Support Act 2014.
If the requested information cannot be provided in full, I request that any reasonably available information be released in aggregated, anonymised, or summary form.
If any part of this request is likely to be refused on the grounds of substantial collation or research, I would welcome assistance under section 13 of the Official Information Act to refine the scope of the request.
Please provide the information in electronic form where possible.
Kind regards,
Spencer Jones
From: Ministerial Services Inbox [TSY]
The Treasury
Dear Spencer
Thank you for your request under the Official Information Act 1982 (OIA), which was received on 7 March 2026. A response will be provided in accordance with the OIA.
The Treasury may publish the response to your OIA request. When you are provided with a response to this request, you will be informed about whether the response to your OIA request will be published. If the Treasury does publish the response to your OIA request, personal information, including your name and contact details, will be removed. This publication process does not apply to extension letters or transfers.
Te Tai Ōhanga The Treasury
Ministerial Advisory Service
treasury.govt.nz | LinkedIn | Youtube
[IN-CONFIDENCE]
CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE
The information in this email is confidential to the Treasury, intended only for the addressee(s), and may also be legally privileged. If you are not an intended addressee:
a. please immediately delete this email and notify the Treasury by return email or telephone (64 4 472 2733);
b. any use, dissemination or copying of this email is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful.
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From: Ministerial Services Inbox [TSY]
The Treasury
Good afternoon
Please find attached a letter regarding your request for information.
Kind regards,
Bradley Martin | Te Tai Ōhanga The Treasury
Ministerial Advisory Service
[1]treasury.govt.nz | [2]LinkedIn | [3]Youtube
[IN-CONFIDENCE]
CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE
The information in this email is confidential to the Treasury, intended
only for the addressee(s), and may also be legally privileged. If you are
not an intended addressee:
a. please immediately delete this email and notify the Treasury by return
email or telephone (64 4 472 2733);
b. any use, dissemination or copying of this email is strictly prohibited
and may be unlawful.
References
Visible links
1. https://treasury.govt.nz/
2. https://www.linkedin.com/company/576138/
3. https://www.youtube.com/@nztreasury/vide...
SPENCER JONES left an annotation ()
Public Annotation – Actuarial Modelling of Veteran Entitlement Liabilities (Treasury Response and Transfer)
This request sought actuarial modelling, fiscal projections, and policy analysis relating to the cost and long-term liability of veteran entitlements under the Veterans’ Support Act 2014.
The response from the Treasury provides a partial decision, transferring the majority of the request to the New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF), while retaining a specific portion relating to fiscal advice.
Key observations:
1. Partial Transfer Under Section 14(b)(ii)
The Treasury has transferred Parts 1–4 and 6 of the request to NZDF on the basis that those elements are more closely connected with NZDF’s functions.
These parts include:
• actuarial valuations and forecasts
• scenario modelling of eligibility changes
• fiscal risk assessments linked to veteran entitlements
• demographic modelling of veteran populations
Part 5 (briefings, Cabinet papers, and Treasury advice) remains with Treasury.
This results in a split request across two agencies.
2. Governance Structure Revealed
The transfer provides insight into how responsibility is distributed:
• NZDF / Veterans’ Affairs:
– holds actuarial, demographic, and operational modelling
– likely responsible for entitlement data and forecasting inputs
• Treasury:
– holds fiscal risk analysis
– provides advice to Ministers and Cabinet
– integrates modelling into broader fiscal strategy
This reflects a dual-layer governance model:
• operational modelling (NZDF)
• fiscal interpretation and policy advice (Treasury)
3. Implications for Traceability
The split structure means that:
• no single agency holds the full picture
• reconstruction of total liability requires combining responses
• modelling inputs and fiscal interpretations may be separated
For researchers, this introduces a need for:
• cross-agency comparison
• alignment of datasets and assumptions
• careful tracking of inconsistencies or gaps
4. Strategic Significance of Part 5
Part 5, retained by Treasury, is particularly important. It covers:
• briefings
• aide-memoire
• Cabinet papers
• internal fiscal advice
These documents represent the link between:
• underlying modelling (NZDF)
• and government decision-making (Cabinet)
This is where actuarial data is translated into policy and budget decisions.
5. Timeframe Implications
Following transfer:
• NZDF has 20 working days to respond to Parts 1–4 and 6
• Treasury continues processing Part 5 independently
This may result in:
• staggered responses
• differing interpretations of scope
• partial visibility until both responses are received
6. Relationship to Other OIA Requests
This request connects directly with broader governance mapping work:
• VAB advice and implementation tracking:
https://fyi.org.nz/request/34113-veteran...
• Ministerial briefings referencing VAB advice:
https://fyi.org.nz/request/34114-ministe...
• Cabinet trace expansion:
https://fyi.org.nz/request/34139-cabinet...
• Cabinet papers referencing VAB advice:
https://fyi.org.nz/request/34115-cabinet...
Together, these requests map:
• advisory input
• fiscal modelling
• ministerial consideration
• Cabinet decision-making
• and implementation
7. System-Level Observation
This response highlights a broader structural feature of government:
• data and modelling are held by operational agencies
• fiscal interpretation is held by central agencies
• decision-making occurs at Cabinet level
However, these layers are not necessarily integrated into a single, traceable system.
This creates potential challenges in:
• understanding total liability
• assessing policy impacts
• ensuring transparency across the full decision chain
8. OIA Strategy Insight
This request demonstrates the importance of:
• anticipating transfers across agencies
• structuring requests to capture both operational and policy layers
• using linked OIAs to reconstruct a complete picture
The split response should be viewed as an opportunity to:
• compare how different agencies describe the same issue
• identify gaps or inconsistencies
• build a multi-layered evidence base
---
This annotation is intended to assist future researchers, followers, and investigators in understanding the significance of the Treasury response and the implications of the transfer for analysing veteran entitlement liabilities under the Official Information Act 1982.
From: Ministerial Services Inbox [TSY]
The Treasury
Good afternoon
Please find attached a letter regarding your request for information.
Regards,
Te Tai Ōhanga The Treasury
Ministerial Advisory Service
[1]treasury.govt.nz | [2]LinkedIn | [3]Youtube
[IN-CONFIDENCE]
CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE
The information in this email is confidential to the Treasury, intended
only for the addressee(s), and may also be legally privileged. If you are
not an intended addressee:
a. please immediately delete this email and notify the Treasury by return
email or telephone (64 4 472 2733);
b. any use, dissemination or copying of this email is strictly prohibited
and may be unlawful.
References
Visible links
1. https://treasury.govt.nz/
2. https://www.linkedin.com/company/576138/
3. https://www.youtube.com/@nztreasury/vide...
From: Ministerial Services
Good afternoon Spencer,
Unfortunately, it is not possible to provide a decision today as the
consultations remain ongoing. A decision, or a full response with relevant
documents will be provided as soon as possible. A date for when this is
likely to occur is not currently available.We apologise for the delay.
This is technically a delay deemed refusal and you have the right, under
section 28(3) of the Official Information Act 1982, to raise this with the
Ombudsman.
Regards
Corporate and Ministerial Services
Office of the Chief of Defence Force
New Zealand Defence Force | Te Ope Kātua o Aotearoa
[1]www.nzdf.mil.nz
[2]cid:image001.png@01DCCCDE.2B12F160
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From: Ministerial Services Inbox [TSY]
The Treasury
Good afternoon
Please find attached the response to your request for information.
Kind regards,
Te Tai Ōhanga The Treasury
Ministerial Advisory Service
[1]treasury.govt.nz | [2]LinkedIn | [3]Youtube
[IN-CONFIDENCE]
CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE
The information in this email is confidential to the Treasury, intended
only for the addressee(s), and may also be legally privileged. If you are
not an intended addressee:
a. please immediately delete this email and notify the Treasury by return
email or telephone (64 4 472 2733);
b. any use, dissemination or copying of this email is strictly prohibited
and may be unlawful.
References
Visible links
1. https://treasury.govt.nz/
2. https://www.linkedin.com/company/576138/
3. https://www.youtube.com/@nztreasury/vide...
From: SPENCER JONES
Dear Ministerial Services Inbox [TSY],
Subject: Follow-up OIA – Veteran Entitlement Liability Advice, Appropriation Implications, and Legislative Response Options
Tēnā koutou,
Thank you for your response dated 6 May 2026 (Ref: 20260163) regarding actuarial modelling of veteran entitlement liabilities.
Your response confirms that:
- Treasury considered the potential increase in the Veterans’ Support Entitlement Liability to be significant;
- further advice to Ministers was being prepared;
- options relating to appeal and legislative change were under consideration; and
- appropriation and Imprest Supply implications were actively being assessed.
I therefore request the following additional information under the Official Information Act 1982.
1. The additional document referred to in your response as being withheld in full under section 9(2)(f)(iv), once that advice is no longer under active consideration.
2. Any subsequent Treasury briefings, aide-memoires, emails, or advice prepared after 15 November 2024 relating to:
- the projected increase in the Veterans’ Support Entitlement Liability;
- fiscal forecast treatment;
- appropriations or Imprest Supply implications;
- unappropriated expenditure risk;
- OBEGAL impacts;
- net worth impacts;
- net core Crown debt implications.
3. Any Treasury analysis or advice discussing:
- legislative amendment options relating to the Veterans’ Support Act 2014;
- narrowing, clarifying, or redefining veteran eligibility;
- appeal options arising from the court ruling referenced in the released material.
4. Any communications between Treasury and:
- NZDF;
- Veterans’ Affairs;
- Ministers;
- or Crown Law
relating to the fiscal implications of the court ruling referenced in the released material.
5. Any documents prepared for inclusion in:
- the 2024 Half-Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU);
- Budget Economic and Fiscal Updates;
- fiscal risk statements;
- or Crown balance sheet reporting
that discuss the Veterans’ Support Entitlement Liability.
If any part of this request is likely to be refused under section 18(f), I would welcome assistance under section 13 to refine the request.
Kind regards,
Spencer Jones
From: SPENCER JONES
Dear Ministerial Services,
Subject: Follow-up OIA – Veteran Entitlement Liability Advice, Appropriation Implications, and Legislative Response Options
Tēnā koutou,
Thank you for your response dated 6 May 2026 (Ref: 20260163) regarding actuarial modelling of veteran entitlement liabilities.
Your response confirms that:
- Treasury considered the potential increase in the Veterans’ Support Entitlement Liability to be significant;
- further advice to Ministers was being prepared;
- options relating to appeal and legislative change were under consideration; and
- appropriation and Imprest Supply implications were actively being assessed.
I therefore request the following additional information under the Official Information Act 1982.
1. The additional document referred to in your response as being withheld in full under section 9(2)(f)(iv), once that advice is no longer under active consideration.
2. Any subsequent Treasury briefings, aide-memoires, emails, or advice prepared after 15 November 2024 relating to:
- the projected increase in the Veterans’ Support Entitlement Liability;
- fiscal forecast treatment;
- appropriations or Imprest Supply implications;
- unappropriated expenditure risk;
- OBEGAL impacts;
- net worth impacts;
- net core Crown debt implications.
3. Any Treasury analysis or advice discussing:
- legislative amendment options relating to the Veterans’ Support Act 2014;
- narrowing, clarifying, or redefining veteran eligibility;
- appeal options arising from the court ruling referenced in the released material.
4. Any communications between Treasury and:
- NZDF;
- Veterans’ Affairs;
- Ministers;
- or Crown Law
relating to the fiscal implications of the court ruling referenced in the released material.
5. Any documents prepared for inclusion in:
- the 2024 Half-Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU);
- Budget Economic and Fiscal Updates;
- fiscal risk statements;
- or Crown balance sheet reporting
that discuss the Veterans’ Support Entitlement Liability.
If any part of this request is likely to be refused under section 18(f), I would welcome assistance under section 13 to refine the request.
Kind regards,
Spencer Jones
From: Ministerial Services
Good afternoon
Your request below has been received and a decision on your request will be provided as soon as possible and no later than 4 June 2026. Responses to requests for information that are considered to be in the wider public interest will be published on the New Zealand Defence Force website (www.nzdf.mil.nz).
Regards
Corporate and Ministerial Services
Office of the Chief of Defence Force
New Zealand Defence Force | Te Ope Kātua o Aotearoa
www.nzdf.mil.nz
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From: Ministerial Services Inbox [TSY]
The Treasury
Good morning
Thank you for your request under the Official Information Act 1982 (OIA), which was received on 6 May 2026. A response will be provided in accordance with the OIA.
The Treasury may publish the response to your OIA request. When you are provided with a response to this request, you will be informed about whether the response to your OIA request will be published. If the Treasury does publish the response to your OIA request, personal information, including your name and contact details, will be removed. This publication process does not apply to extension letters or transfers.
Te Tai Ōhanga The Treasury
Ministerial Advisory Service
treasury.govt.nz | LinkedIn | Youtube
[IN-CONFIDENCE]
CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE
The information in this email is confidential to the Treasury, intended only for the addressee(s), and may also be legally privileged. If you are not an intended addressee:
a. please immediately delete this email and notify the Treasury by return email or telephone (64 4 472 2733);
b. any use, dissemination or copying of this email is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful.
show quoted sections
From: Ministerial Services
Good afternoon Spencer,
Please find attached the response to your request.
We apologise for the delay.
Regards
Corporate and Ministerial Services
Office of the Chief of Defence Force
New Zealand Defence Force | Te Ope Kātua o Aotearoa
[1]www.nzdf.mil.nz
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SPENCER JONES left an annotation ()
Public Annotation – Context and Importance of this Request
This request seeks information about whether the New Zealand government has undertaken actuarial modelling or fiscal forecasting relating to veteran entitlements administered under the Veterans’ Support Act 2014. The request specifically asks whether any actuarial valuations or scenario modelling exist estimating the current or projected cost of these entitlements. 
Understanding whether actuarial modelling exists is important because long-term entitlement systems are typically supported by financial forecasting. Governments commonly use actuarial models to estimate future liabilities, assess demographic changes, and evaluate the fiscal implications of policy options. If such modelling exists in relation to veteran entitlements, it would likely inform policy development, funding decisions, and long-term planning for veteran support programmes.
The request also asks whether modelling has been undertaken relating to potential changes to the statutory definition of “veteran”, including the possible fiscal implications of extending recognition beyond operational service personnel. Requests of this type are intended to clarify whether policy discussions about veteran eligibility have been supported by quantitative modelling or financial forecasts.
Information about actuarial modelling can help researchers and policymakers understand how the long-term cost of veteran support programmes is assessed, how demographic projections are incorporated into policy planning, and how government agencies evaluate potential legislative changes affecting veteran eligibility and entitlements.
This request forms part of a wider research effort examining how government agencies collect data, maintain records, and analyse the long-term fiscal implications of policies affecting veterans. Together, these requests aim to improve public understanding of the evidence base used in veteran policy development and entitlement administration.
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