Dear Reserve Bank of New Zealand,

I am writing to request information under the Official Information Act 1982 regarding the Reserve Bank's assessment and monitoring of social impacts arising from monetary policy decisions, particularly Official Cash Rate (OCR) changes and their effects on mortality, mental health, and social harm.
1. SOCIAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF MONETARY POLICY

1.1 Health and Mortality Impacts:

Please provide any Reserve Bank analysis or research examining:

Correlations between OCR increases and subsequent suicide rates
Correlations between periods of monetary tightening and mental health hospitalizations
Correlations between mortgage rate increases and domestic violence reports
Any modeling of how OCR changes affect population health outcomes

1.2 Financial Stress Indicators:

Please provide any Reserve Bank monitoring of:

Mortgage stress rates (proportion of households spending >30% of income on housing)
Consumer bankruptcy and insolvency rates following OCR changes
Food bank usage and financial hardship indicators during tightening cycles
Benefit applications due to financial hardship following OCR increases

1.3 Employment and Income Impacts:

Please provide any Reserve Bank analysis of:

Job losses attributable to OCR increases (through demand reduction)
Income reduction in vulnerable populations due to monetary tightening
Distributional impacts of OCR changes across income deciles
Which socioeconomic groups bear the greatest burden of inflation control

2. MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE DELIBERATIONS

2.1 Social Impact Considerations:

Please provide documentation of:

Whether the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) receives briefings on potential social harm impacts before OCR decisions
Whether MPC meeting minutes record discussion of suicide risk, mental health impacts, or social harm
Any framework or guidance requiring MPC to consider social impacts alongside inflation and employment mandates

2.2 Trade-off Analysis:

Please provide any Reserve Bank analysis of:

The social cost of reducing inflation through OCR increases (lives lost, mental health harm, family violence) versus the cost of tolerating higher inflation
Whether the Reserve Bank has quantified the "acceptable" level of social harm in pursuit of the inflation target
Cost-benefit analysis comparing inflation costs versus monetary tightening costs (including social harm)

2.3 Alternative Approaches:

Please provide any Reserve Bank analysis comparing:

Social harm impacts of OCR-based inflation control versus alternative tools (macroprudential policy, fiscal coordination)
International examples of central banks using less socially harmful inflation control methods
Whether targeted approaches (e.g., sector-specific tools) could reduce inflation with less collateral damage

3. STATISTICAL MONITORING AND RESEARCH

3.1 Time-Series Analysis:

Please provide any Reserve Bank research examining:

Whether OCR changes are a leading indicator of changes in suicide rates (with lag analysis)
Historical correlations between previous tightening cycles (1997-1998, 2004-2007, 2021-2023) and mortality data
Econometric modeling of causal pathways: OCR → mortgage stress → mental health crisis → suicide

3.2 Data Collection:

Please confirm:

Whether the Reserve Bank collects or receives data on suicide rates, mental health hospitalizations, or social harm indicators
Whether the Reserve Bank has requested such data from Stats NZ, Ministry of Health, or other agencies
Whether the Reserve Bank monitors real-time indicators of social distress during tightening cycles

3.3 Research Publications:

Please provide (titles and dates):

Any Reserve Bank Analytical Notes, Discussion Papers, or Bulletins examining social impacts of monetary policy
Any internal research or commissioned studies on health effects of OCR changes
Any literature reviews conducted by RBNZ on international research linking monetary policy to mortality

4. REMIT AND LEGISLATIVE FRAMEWORK

4.1 Current Remit Interpretation:

The Reserve Bank's remit includes maintaining price stability and supporting maximum sustainable employment. Please provide:

The Reserve Bank's interpretation of whether "supporting maximum sustainable employment" includes considering the health and wellbeing of the workforce
Whether the Reserve Bank considers premature death (suicide) due to financial stress as relevant to the employment objective
Any legal advice on whether the Reserve Bank has authority or obligation to consider social harm in OCR decisions

4.2 Remit Evolution:

Please provide documentation of:

Any recommendations the Reserve Bank has made to Ministers regarding expanding the remit to include social wellbeing considerations
Any analysis of whether the current remit adequately accounts for social costs of monetary policy
Comparisons with other central banks' mandates that explicitly include wellbeing or social cohesion objectives

4.3 Crown Entity Responsibilities:

As a Crown entity, please confirm:

Whether the Reserve Bank considers itself bound by the Public Service Act 2020's commitment to wellbeing
Whether the Reserve Bank applies the Living Standards Framework in policy analysis
How the Reserve Bank reconciles pursuit of inflation targets with broader government wellbeing objectives

5. COORDINATION WITH OTHER AGENCIES

5.1 Health Sector Coordination:

Please provide documentation of:

Any formal coordination with Ministry of Health or Health NZ regarding mental health impacts of monetary policy
Whether the Reserve Bank notifies health agencies in advance of significant OCR increases to prepare for demand spikes
Any joint analysis between RBNZ and health agencies on monetary policy health impacts

5.2 Treasury Coordination:

Please provide documentation of:

Whether the Reserve Bank shares analysis of social costs of monetary policy with Treasury
Whether Treasury's fiscal forecasts incorporate RBNZ's assessment of OCR-induced social harm
Any disagreement between RBNZ and Treasury on the social costs of inflation control

5.3 Social Sector Agencies:

Please confirm whether the Reserve Bank coordinates with:

Ministry of Social Development on benefit demand forecasts during tightening cycles
Oranga Tamariki on child welfare impacts of household financial stress
Ministry of Justice on crime and family violence correlations with economic stress

6. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS AND BEST PRACTICE

6.1 Peer Central Banks:

Please provide any Reserve Bank analysis comparing New Zealand's approach with:

Reserve Bank of Australia's consideration of social impacts
Bank of England's research on distributional effects of monetary policy
European Central Bank's work on monetary policy and inequality
Federal Reserve's dual mandate explicitly including "maximum employment"

6.2 Academic and International Research:

Please provide:

Any Reserve Bank review of international literature on monetary policy and suicide rates
Awareness of research documenting correlations between financial crises, austerity, and mortality (e.g., Stuckler & Basu, "The Body Economic")
Reserve Bank's position on whether this international evidence is relevant to New Zealand monetary policy

6.3 BIS and IMF Guidance:

Please confirm:

Whether the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) or International Monetary Fund (IMF) provide guidance on central banks considering social impacts
Whether the Reserve Bank participates in international forums discussing central banking and wellbeing
Any international standards or best practices the Reserve Bank follows regarding social impact assessment

7. COST-BENEFIT METHODOLOGY

7.1 Value of Statistical Life:

Please confirm:

Whether the Reserve Bank uses a Value of Statistical Life (VSL) figure in any policy analysis
If yes, what VSL figure is used (noting Ministry of Transport uses $4.9 million in 2021 dollars)
Whether the Reserve Bank has calculated the VSL cost of suicides potentially linked to financial stress from OCR increases

7.2 Inflation Cost Calculation:

Please provide the Reserve Bank's methodology for:

Calculating the economic and social cost of inflation above the target band
Whether this includes quantification of inflation's impact on mortality, health, and wellbeing
How the Reserve Bank compares the cost of inflation versus the cost of inflation-fighting measures

7.3 Net Social Benefit:

Please provide any Reserve Bank analysis demonstrating:

That the social benefits of achieving the inflation target exceed the social costs of the methods used to achieve it
How the Reserve Bank quantifies lives saved through price stability versus lives lost through financial stress
Whether the Reserve Bank has a framework for determining when inflation control costs exceed inflation costs

8. RECENT OCR CYCLE (2021-2024)

8.1 Latest Tightening Cycle:

For the OCR increases from 0.25% (October 2021) to 5.50% (May 2023), please provide:

Any Reserve Bank analysis of projected social impacts before implementing increases
Monitoring of actual social harm indicators during the tightening period
Post-implementation review assessing whether social harm materialized as expected
Any adjustment to future decision-making based on observed social impacts

8.2 Mortgage Stress Projections:

Please provide any Reserve Bank modeling of:

Number of households projected to experience severe mortgage stress from the 2021-2023 OCR increases
Regional and demographic distribution of this stress
Expected increases in defaults, bankruptcies, and forced house sales

8.3 Alternative Scenarios:

Please provide any Reserve Bank analysis of:

Whether a slower OCR increase path would have achieved inflation control with less social harm
Whether alternative tools (loan-to-value ratios, debt-to-income limits) could have reduced inflation without OCR increases
Why the chosen OCR path was selected over less aggressive alternatives

9. VULNERABILITY AND DISTRIBUTIONAL ANALYSIS

9.1 Impact on Vulnerable Groups:

Please provide any Reserve Bank analysis of OCR impacts on:

Low-income renters (through pass-through of landlord mortgage costs)
Māori and Pacific communities (who have higher debt-to-income ratios)
Single-parent families
Young people with recent mortgages
Small business owners with variable-rate business loans

9.2 Intergenerational Impacts:

Please provide:

Any Reserve Bank analysis of how OCR changes affect different age cohorts differently
Whether monetary policy systematically favors asset-holders over workers
Analysis of how OCR decisions affect intergenerational wealth distribution

9.3 Regional Impacts:

Please confirm:

Whether the Reserve Bank assesses regional variation in OCR impacts (e.g., Auckland mortgage holders versus rural communities)
Whether uniform national OCR settings create disproportionate harm in specific regions
Any consideration of regional monetary policy tools to reduce distributional harm

10. TRANSPARENCY AND ACCOUNTABILITY

10.1 Public Communication:

Please provide:

Any Reserve Bank public communications acknowledging potential social harm from OCR decisions
Whether OCR decision announcements include information on expected social impacts
Whether the Reserve Bank publishes health and social cost estimates alongside economic projections

10.2 Ex-Post Assessment:

Please confirm:

Whether the Reserve Bank conducts post-implementation reviews of OCR decisions including social outcomes
Whether the Reserve Bank tracks accuracy of its forecasts for employment, income, and financial stress
Any mechanism for learning from cases where OCR changes caused greater social harm than projected

10.3 Democratic Accountability:

Please provide the Reserve Bank's position on:

Whether unelected monetary policy officials should have authority to make decisions with life-and-death consequences without assessing those consequences
How democratic accountability is maintained when social harm from OCR decisions is not transparently reported
Whether the public has a right to know the Reserve Bank's assessment of social costs before OCR decisions are made

11. SPECIFIC RESEARCH QUESTIONS

11.1 Has the Reserve Bank ever calculated how many additional suicides might result from a 1% OCR increase through financial stress pathways?

11.2 Does the Reserve Bank have a threshold level of projected social harm that would cause it to choose a different policy path?

11.3 Has the Reserve Bank identified the OCR level at which social harm costs begin to exceed inflation costs?

11.4 Does the Reserve Bank consider that maintaining operational independence requires transparency about social impacts, or does independence mean avoiding accountability for social consequences?
12. METHODOLOGICAL CAPABILITIES AND CONSTRAINTS

12.1 Current Analytical Capacity:

Please confirm:

Whether the Reserve Bank has in-house expertise in health economics, sociology, or public health to assess social impacts
Whether the Reserve Bank has capacity to conduct epidemiological analysis of monetary policy health effects
What barriers prevent the Reserve Bank from modeling social harm impacts

12.2 Data Access:

Please confirm:

Whether the Reserve Bank has access to Stats NZ's Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI) for analyzing social impacts
Whether privacy or legal constraints prevent the Reserve Bank from accessing health and mortality data
Whether the Reserve Bank has requested but been denied access to social harm data

12.3 Modeling Limitations:

Please provide:

The Reserve Bank's assessment of whether its current macroeconomic models can incorporate social harm variables
Whether technical constraints prevent including health and mortality in the Reserve Bank's forecasting models
What additional resources or capabilities would be needed to comprehensively model social impacts

RATIONALE FOR THIS REQUEST:

This request addresses fundamental questions about accountability and transparency in monetary policy decision-making.

The Reserve Bank's OCR decisions have immediate and direct impacts on:

Household financial stress through mortgage rate changes
Employment and income through demand reduction
Mental health through financial anxiety and hardship
Potentially mortality through suicide and stress-related illness

International research documents correlations between:

Economic shocks and suicide rates
Unemployment and mental health crises
Financial stress and family violence
Austerity policies and mortality (Stuckler & Basu, 2013; Case & Deaton on "deaths of despair")

If the Reserve Bank does not model these impacts before making OCR decisions, it means:

Decisions with life-and-death consequences are made without assessing those consequences
The public cannot evaluate whether inflation control methods are justified by their costs
Democratic accountability is undermined by lack of transparency about social harm

If the Reserve Bank has data showing OCR-harm correlations but does not publish it, this raises serious transparency concerns.

If the Reserve Bank acknowledges potential for social harm but proceeds without quantification, this raises questions about the ethical framework governing monetary policy.

This request is made in the context of:

Treasury's recent OIA response (Reference: 20250861) claiming no analysis of welfare expenditure efficiency related to suicide and social harm
The need to understand whether monetary policy authorities coordinate with fiscal and social policy agencies on wellbeing impacts
Public interest in understanding the full costs of inflation control, not just the benefits

The Reserve Bank's operational independence is strengthened, not weakened, by transparency about social impacts. The public cannot evaluate whether the Reserve Bank is successfully balancing its objectives without knowing the full costs and benefits of its decisions.

International best practice increasingly expects central banks to consider distributional and social impacts of monetary policy. The public has a right to know whether the Reserve Bank meets these standards.

I am happy to discuss this request if clarification would be helpful, particularly regarding appropriate methodological frameworks for assessing social impacts.

Yours faithfully,
Hayden