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Kia ora Steven,

We acknowledge receipt of your request.

We will respond as soon as possible and no later than 11 April, being 20 working days after the day your request was received.

Ngâ mihi,
Caroline

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Kia ora Steven,

Following up on your request, you have asked for the following information:

‘I request any emails, public statements or correspondence between NIWA and media/politicians that comments on a link between extreme weather and a gradually warming climate?’

This request, as currently framed, would require substantial collation and research. Therefore, please consider narrowing the scope of the request to enable us to respond.

For example, consider providing a timeframe, e.g. emails within the last five years. Please also consider providing the names of specific media outlets and politicians you would like to be captured by this request.

Ngâ mihi,
Caroline

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Kia ora Steven,

Please see below our responses to your request received on 10 March.

‘Can NIWA release to me any data on historical trends that indicate cyclone/storm activity has increased since records began?’

The following relates to tropical cyclones (TC) in the SW Pacific basin.

There are several agencies responsible for officially identifying and tracking cyclones as they occur, including WMO Regional Specialised Meteorological Centres and Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres. TCWC Brisbane, Wellington, Port Moresby, and Melbourne along with RMSC Nadi all contribute to identifying the formation of storms, and tracking tropical cyclones, depending on their specific areas of responsibility.

TC data are submitted and reviewed by a team of international experts. For NIWA’s seasonal TC outlook, produced in collaboration with MetService and others, we obtain those updated data each year to produce outlooks for the SW Pacific and NZ. These data can be found here:
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/inter...

There are other datasets such as those held by the Bureau of Meteorology and the SW Pacific Archive for Enhanced Tropical Cyclones: http://apdrc.soest.hawaii.edu/projects/s....

Many researchers have made TC comparisons and examined trends in TC (and hurricane) activity using these types of track and data archives. A collective finding from several researchers indicates a long-term decline in TC numbers for the SW Pacific basin, but an increase in cyclone intensity. Note, the high-quality TC observations we use begin for the 1969/70 season, so the significance of any trend will be impacted by the length of the observations.

At an island scale, TC trends (and their significance) may be different from the basin scale. An example for Tonga can be found below. Examining TC data in different ways, or examining different meteorological variables, could show different relationships – significant or otherwise.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar...

‘I request any emails, public statements or correspondence between NIWA and media/politicians that comments on a link between extreme weather and a gradually warming climate?’

We sought clarification of this part of your request on 27 March, however we have not received a response from you.

Without clarification, we are not able to make this information available without substantial collation or research. Therefore, this part of your request is refused under section 18(f) of the Act.

‘I request all emails or official communication between NIWA (and any employee of NIWA) and the Minister for Climate Change James Shaw.’

We have taken this to mean communication between NIWA (and any employee of NIWA) and the Minister for Climate Change James Shaw in relation to Cyclone Gabrielle. We do not hold any relevant emails or communication.

‘I request any internal NIWA emails and communications that relate to the recent ‘Climate of Fear’ report by Ian Wishart.’

We are withholding this information under section 9(2)(g)(i) of the Act to maintain the effective conduct of public affairs through the free and frank expression of opinions.

Please note, under section 28(3) of the Act, you have the right to seek an investigation and review by the Ombudsman of this decision.

Ngâ mihi,
Caroline

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