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Data and Model behind your use of the term "Cumulative Risk" about kiwis returning from overseas

Raghu P Pushpakath made this Official Information request to Chris Hipkins

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From: Raghu P Pushpakath

Dear Chris Hipkins,

This request is made to you since you hold the portfolio of Minister for COVID-19 Response.

I am a New Zealander living overseas for past few years, trying to return to New Zealand.

This request is about certain terms/numbers you used during the Covid Update Press Conference on November 17 2021.

For your reference, the transcript is here in the Govt website: https://covid19.govt.nz/alert-levels-and...

1) You said "So we have to deal with the cumulative risk". Assuming that you used the term "Cumulative Risk" from a Mathematics/Statistics perspective, what all data have you collected about Kiwis returning home and what statistical models have your team created about the threats/risks they bring in, in order for you to come up with this "Cumulative Risk" decision ?

2) You said "if we’re getting even 10 cases per 1000, if we’re having 5,000 or 6,000 per day coming into the country...". How did you make this assumption of 5000-6000 arrivals per day? How many flights does your statistical model predict to come into the country, and how many passengers in average per flight?

3) You also said "if we’re getting even 10 cases per 1000". For last many days/weeks, we have not seen these many infections from the border in any of the daily Covid updates from your department. How did your statistical model come up with this figure and based on what data?

For all of the above questions, Please share all of the data and the underlying statistical model details as part of the response. I am a mathematician and I would like to understand the data and the models behind these decisions/conclusions/statements.

Yours faithfully,

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From: C Hipkins (MIN)
Chris Hipkins

Kia ora


Thank you for taking the time to write to Hon Chris Hipkins, Minister for
COVID-19 Response, Minister of Education, Minister for the Public Sector
and Leader of the House.

We are receiving a significant amount of correspondence at the moment and,
although your email will be carefully considered and noted, it is not
possible to respond to each individual email. However, please note that
this is an automatic response and we will endeavour to respond to your
individual queries as soon as we can.

You can find the latest information and guidance about Alert Levels at
The locations of interest are set out
at [2]https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/dise...
encourage anyone who has been at one of the locations of interest at the
time specified to self-isolate and call Healthline on 0800 358 5453. You
can find the nearest testing centre to you
at [3]https://www.healthpoint.co.nz/covid-19/.

We appreciate that this is a challenging time. If you need to talk, you
can call or text 1737 at any time. Mental health and wellbeing resources
are also available
at [4]https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/dise...
about the financial support available to individuals and businesses can be
found at [5]https://covid19.govt.nz/business-and-mon....

We also understand that there are several other aspects to the response
that are very important to people. You can find more information about:

o Managed Isolation and Quarantine (MIQ)
at [6]https://www.miq.govt.nz/, including how to request an emergency
at [7]https://www.miq.govt.nz/travel-to-new-ze...
make a complaint or request a review of your application by
emailing [8]https://www.miq.govt.nz/about/contact-us....
o Travel with Australia
at [9]https://covid19.govt.nz/travel/quarantin...
you are in Australia, please register
at [10]https://www.safetravel.govt.nz/ and if it is an emergency,
contact the Consulate on +64 99 20 20 20.
o Vaccines at [11]https://covid19.govt.nz/covid-19-vaccines/, including
how to book your vaccine
at [12]https://bookmyvaccine.covid19.health.nz/... by calling 0800 28
29 26.
o Vaccine data and statistics
at [13]https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/dise...
Medsafe’s vaccine safety monitoring reports
at [14]https://www.medsafe.govt.nz/COVID-19/vac...
o The Government’s plan to reconnect New Zealand with the rest of the
at [16]https://covid19.govt.nz/reconnecting-new....

Please remember to take care, and be kind. We have beaten COVID-19 before,
and we can do it again.

Ngā mihi,

Office of Hon Chris Hipkins

Minister for COVID-19 Response | Minister of Education | Minister for the
Public Sector | Leader of the House | MP for Remutaka

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James left an annotation ()

When is Hon Chris Hipkins expected to respond? He is now well outside the statutory OIA response timeframes.

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Eddie left an annotation ()

Could this please be followed up?

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From: C Hipkins (MIN)
Chris Hipkins

Attachment OIA0494 Raghu Pushpakath.pdf
117K Download View as HTML

Dear Raghu

Please find attached letter from Hon Chris Hipkins in response to your email of 20 November 2021

Kind regards,

Office of Hon Chris Hipkins
Minister for COVID-19 Response | Minister of Education | Minister of the Public Service | Leader of the House
Parliament Buildings, Private Bag 18041, Wellington 6160, New Zealand

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