Dear The Treasury,

Under the Official Information Act , I request:

Any analysis, modelling, or estimates held by Treasury of the fiscal cost of zero-rating locally produced food for GST purposes — specifically, food sold directly by the producer to consumers within the producer's district, with annual sales under $60,000.

Any analysis of the fiscal cost of a limited income tax exemption (the first $15,000 of income) for natural persons deriving income from local producer direct sales.

Any analysis or briefing held by Treasury on the use of the tax system to address food affordability in New Zealand — including any consideration of GST exemptions, zero-rating, or targeted tax relief for food.

Treasury's current estimate of the total annual government expenditure on food-related welfare and hardship assistance, including food grants, emergency food assistance, and the component of benefit payments attributable to food costs.

Any cross-agency analysis of the relationship between food affordability, diet-related health costs, and the fiscal impact of the grocery duopoly's pricing behaviour.

Any analysis of the net fiscal impact of enabling community food networks — taking into account the potential reduction in food-related welfare expenditure, diet-related health costs, and regional economic multiplier effects, against the fiscal cost of tax concessions.

The estimated maximum fiscal cost of the proposed GST zero-rating and income tax exemption is approximately $60 million per year. The grocery duopoly earns an estimated $365 million per year in excess profits.
The government spends an estimated $1.3 billion per year on food-related welfare and an estimated $2 billion per year on diet-related health costs.
I am establishing whether Treasury has assessed whether a modest tax concession for local food production would generate a net fiscal benefit through reduced welfare and health spending.
If this analysis does not exist, thats a systemic gap: Treasury models the fiscal cost of tax relief but not the fiscal benefit of the intervention it enables.
If any information is to be withheld, please specify the grounds under the OIA for each withheld item.

Yours faithfully,

Hayden