Reference: 20260282
14 May 2026
Nigel Gray
[FYI request #34499 email]
Dear Nigel
Thank you for your Official Information Act (OIA) request, received on 15 April 2026. You
requested the following:
1. Ministerial Requests to Treasury
Al records that show whether, since 1 February 2024, the Minister of Finance or the
Minister’s Office has requested from Treasury:
a. information,
b. analysis,
c. updates,
d. forecasts, or
e. briefings
relating to:
GST revenue levels or GST revenue changes
GST sensitivity to fuel price movements
fiscal implications of fuel price increases
the developing situation in the Middle East and its impact on fiscal forecasts
This includes any record of the request itself, regardless of whether written material
was subsequently produced.
2. Treasury Responses to the Minister of Finance Al records that show whether
Treasury has provided the Minister of Finance or the Minister’s Office with:
updates
forecasts
scenario analysis
fiscal commentary
talking points
verbal briefing notes
weekly report extracts
1 The Terrace
PO Box 3724
Wellington 6140
New Zealand
tel. +64-4-472-2733
https://treasury.govt.nz
relating to:
GST impacts of fuel price movements
fiscal implications of fuel price increases
forecast scenarios updated due to the developing situation in the Middle East
I am requesting the existence, nature, and dates of such material, not the content of
any withheld documents.
3. Forecast Scenario Updates
Al records that document or describe the “forecast scenarios” Treasury is updating in
relation to the developing situation in the Middle East, as referenced in the Minister of
Finance’s letter dated 15 April 2026.
This includes:
scenario assumptions
scenario inputs
scenario outputs
scenario update logs
records of transmission to the Minister or Minister’s Office
Parts 1 and 2
Information being released
Please find enclosed the following documents:
Item
Date
Document Description
Decision
1. 24/03/2026
Line on GST and fuel prices
Release in full
(except for contact numbers)
2. 24/03/2026
Questions on GST on fuel
Release in full
(except for contact numbers)
I have decided to release the relevant parts of the documents listed above, subject to
information being withheld under one or more of the following sections of the Official
Information Act, as applicable:
•
section 9(2)(g)(i ) – to maintain the effective conduct of public affairs through
protecting Ministers, members of government organisations, officers and employees
from improper pressure or harassment, and
•
section 9(2)(k) – to prevent the disclosure of information for improper gain or
improper advantage. This reduces the possibility of staff being exposed to phishing,
social engineering and other scams. This is because information released under the
OIA may end up in the public domain, for example, on websites including Treasury’s
website.
2
Some information has been redacted because it is not covered by the scope of your
request. This is because the documents include matters outside your specific request.
Information to be withheld
The following document is also cover by your request. I have decision to withhold the
document in full under section 9(2)(f)(iv) of the OIA, to maintain the current constitutional
conventions protecting the confidentiality of advice tendered by Ministers and officials.
Item
Date
Document Description
Decision
3.
9 April 2026
Aide Memoire T2026/666 Budget 2026
Withheld in full
Economic Forecasts
Part 3
Information publicly available
The following information is also covered by your request and is publicly available on the
Treasury website:
Item
Date
Document Title
Website Address
4.
24 March 2026 Aide Memoire T2026/ 568:
Economic Impacts of the Middle East
Macroeconomic Scenarios – Middle
Conflict | The Treasury New Zealand
East Conflict and Economic Impacts
5.
17 March 2026 Email Chain - RBA and NZ inflation
updates - 17 March 2026
6.
16 March 2026 Talking points - possible impact of
Middle East conflict on New Zealand
economy - 16 March 2026
7.
14 March 2026 Summary of Market Moves - 14
March Update
8.
14 March 2026 Economic briefing Middle East
developments - 14 March 2026
9.
12 March 2026 Summary of Market Moves - 12
March Update
10.
11 March 2026 Summary of Markets Moves - 11
March Update
11.
10 March 2026 Summary of Markets Moves - 10
March Update
12.
9 March 2026
Summary of Markets Moves - 9
March Update
13.
9 March 2026
Economic briefing Middle East
developments - 9 March 2026
14.
6 March 2026
SITREP - 6 March 2026
15.
6 March 2026
Middle East economic impact
scenarios - 6 March 2026
16.
5 March 2026
Markets Update - 5 March 2026
17.
4 March 2026
Markets Update - 4 March 2026
3
18.
3 March 2026
SITREP - 3 March 2026
19.
2 March 2026
SITREP - 2 March 2026
20.
1 March 2026
Email Chain - RE Further Update on
Potential Economic Impacts of
US/Israel Attacks
Accordingly, I have refused your request for the documents listed in the above table under
section 18(d) of the Official Information Act, the information requested is or will soon be
publicly available.
Some relevant information has been removed from documents listed in the above table and
should continue to be withheld under the Official Information Act, on the grounds described
in the documents.
In making my decision, I have considered the public interest considerations in section 9(1)
of the Official Information Act.
Please note that this letter (with your personal details removed) and enclosed documents
may be published on the Treasury website.
This reply addresses the information you requested. You have the right to ask the
Ombudsman to investigate and review my decision.
Yours sincerely
Peter Gardiner
Manager, Forecasting and Monitoring
4
Table of Contents
1.
RE Line on GST and fuel prices due by 10.30am
1
2.
RE Question on GST revenue on fuel
3
Item 1
Page 1 of 10
Out of scope
From: Carl Harris <[email address]>
Sent: Tuesday, March 24, 2026 9:33:53 AM
To: Emma Grigg <[email address]>; Sandra Watson <[email address]>; James Haughton [TSY]
<[email address]>
Cc: Angela Graham <[email address]>
Subject: Line on GST and fuel prices due by 10.30am
Hi
The MoF needs some official advice on GST and fuel prices. Can we please get a clear, firm line from IR or TSY.
The office has suggested the below line, but I don’t think we can say this:
"The govt overall tax take will not increase with the gas increase as a result of higher gas prices"
I’ve attached the email chain from yesterday.
Thanks
Carl
Carl Harris Private Secretary (Revenue) | Office of Hon. Nicola Willis Minister of Finance | Minister for Economic Growth | Minister for Social Investment
1
Item 1
Page 2 of 10
s 9(2)(g)(ii)
M:
E: [email address]
Parliament Buildings, Wellington 6160, New Zealand
This email and any attachment may contain confidential information. If you have received this email or
any attachment in error, please delete the email / attachment, and notify the sender. Please do not copy,
disclose or use the email, any attachment, or any information contained in them. Consider the
environment before deciding to print: avoid printing if you can, or consider printing double-sided. Visit us
online at ird.govt.nz
2
Item 2
Page 3 of 10
From:
^Parliament: Carl Harris
Sent:
Tuesday, 24 March 2026 11:21 am
To:
Giles Bollinger [TSY]
Cc:
^IRD: Emma Grigg; Andrew Rutledge [TSY]; Simon McLoughlin [TSY]; Peter Gardiner
[TSY]; Ben Ching [TSY]; Martin Keene [TSY]; John Marney [TSY]; ^Parliament: Angela
Graham
Subject:
RE: Question on GST revenue on fuel
Thanks Giles and team, much appreciated.
Another factor that was noted in the office was that petrol excise is a fixed number of cents per litre – so revenue
from fuel excise would not increase from price rises, but if taxpayers chose to substitute or stop consuming petrol
then the Govt would lose out on that revenue.
Agree that the overall impact is highly uncertain.
Cheers
Carl
Carl Harris Private Secretary (Revenue) | OƯice of Hon. Nicola Willis Minister of Finance | Minister for Economic Growth | Minister for Social Investment
M: s 9(2)(g)(ii)
E: [email address]
Parliament Buildings, Wellington 6160, New Zealand
From: Giles Bollinger [TSY] <[email address]>
Sent: Tuesday, 24 March 2026 11:08 am
To: Carl Harris <[email address]>
Cc: ^IRD: Emma Grigg <[email address]>; Andrew Rutledge [TSY] <[email address]>; Simon
McLoughlin [TSY] <[email address]>; Peter Gardiner [TSY] <[email address]>; Ben
Ching [TSY] <[email address]>; Martin Keene [TSY] <[email address]>; John Marney [TSY]
<[email address]>
Subject: RE: Question on GST revenue on fuel
Kia ora Carl, copying Emma and Treasury colleagues,
As discussed, just confirming that the below lines are our advice (I’ve just added the ‘note’ para to explain a bit
more). Let us know if we can help with anything else.
Officials have advised that the overall fiscal impact remains highly uncertain at this stage because any lift
in tax from higher fuel prices may be offset by lower economic activity and higher costs to Government.
(Note: Higher fuel prices can have offsetting effects on taxes, as higher inflation may lift taxes while lower
economic activity dampens the tax take.)
In terms of GST specifically, it is unclear how much fuel sales will be impacted by higher prices, and total
GST revenue may decrease regardless if households spend less elsewhere.
1
Item 2
Page 4 of 10
The Treasury and Inland Revenue continue to update their forecast scenarios in light of the developing
situation in the Middle East.
Cheers
Giles
From: Giles Bollinger [TSY]
Sent: Tuesday, 24 March 2026 10:29 am
To: [email address]
Cc: [email address]
Subject: FW: Question on GST revenue on fuel
Hi Carl – some suggested lines below. Calling you now to discuss.
From: Giles Bollinger [TSY]
Sent: Tuesday, 24 March 2026 10:22 am
To: Emma Grigg <[email address]>; Robert O'Hara [TSY] <Robert.O'[email address]>
Subject: RE: Question on GST revenue on fuel
Okay have combined that with the lines I sent you earlier. My Macro and Forecasting colleagues are happy with
this.
Officials have advised that the overall fiscal impact remains highly uncertain at this stage because any lift
in tax from higher fuel prices may be offset by lower economic activity and higher costs to Government.
In terms of GST specifically, it is unclear how much fuel sales will be impacted by higher prices, and total
GST revenue may decrease regardless if households spend less elsewhere.
The Treasury and Inland Revenue continue to update their forecast scenarios in light of the developing
situation in the Middle East.
From: Emma Grigg <[email address]>
Sent: Tuesday, 24 March 2026 10:17 am
To: Giles Bollinger [TSY] <[email address]>; Robert O'Hara [TSY] <Robert.O'[email address]>
Subject: FW: Question on GST revenue on fuel
[UNCLASSIFIED]
An attempt from Maraina and I
Emma Grigg Policy Director | Kaiwhakahaere Kaupapa
Policy | Taukaea
Inland Revenue | Te Tari Taake
M. s 9(2)(g)(ii)
E. [email address]
2
Item 2
Page 5 of 10
From: Maraina Hak <[email address]>
Sent: Tuesday, 24 March 2026 10:15 am
To: Emma Grigg <[email address]>
Subject: Re: Question on GST revenue on fuel
[IN-CONFIDENCE]
Higher fuel prices lift GST on fuel, but not necessarily total GST. This is because people tend to respond by buying
less fuel or spending less elsewhere.
Ngā mihi, Maraina I sometimes work non-standard hours. If you receive an email from me, I do not expect you to respond to me
outside of your standard work hours.
From: Emma Grigg <[email address]>
Sent: Tuesday, March 24, 2026 9:48 AM
To: Maraina Hak <[email address]>
Subject: Fw: Question on GST revenue on fuel
[IN-CONFIDENCE]
Get Outlook for iOS
From: Sandra Watson <[email address]>
Sent: Tuesday, March 24, 2026 9:38:00 AM
To: Emma Grigg <[email address]>
Subject: FW: Question on GST revenue on fuel
[IN-CONFIDENCE]
GST is broad based and in general if the amount spent on one item goes up, there may be less spent on other
items.
In general
• more GST will arise if the price goes up
• but demand for that item likely goes down
3
Item 2
Page 6 of 10
• there are also substitution effects (impact on other consumption if you have to spend more on one item –
in this case fuel)
It should be acknowleged that GST applies to nominal consumption and if prices more generally go up, so will
GST.
From: Sandra Watson
Sent: Monday, 23 March 2026 4:07 pm
To: Felicity Barker <[email address]>
Subject: FW: Question on GST revenue on fuel
From: Sandra Watson
Sent: Monday, 23 March 2026 3:27 pm
To: 'Carl Harris' <[email address]>; Giles Bollinger [TSY] <[email address]>
Cc: Maraina Hak <[email address]>; Emma Grigg <[email address]>; Carolyn Elliott
<[email address]>; James Haughton [TSY] <[email address]>
<[email address]>
Subject: RE: Question on GST revenue on fuel
Inland Revenue does not hold information on how much GST is collected specifically on fuel as this is not
itemised on returns of GST.
In response to the specific question on change, the below answers are correct – and there are a lot of related
factors already mentioned below
• more GST will arise if the price goes up
• but demand likely goes down
• substitution effects (impact on other consumption if you have to spend more on fuel)
4
Item 2
Page 7 of 10
We are unable to explicitly quantify these.
Another consideration is that price changes on other items will also impact GST, but we won’t be able to isolate
the cause.
Regards
Sandra
From: Carl Harris <[email address]>
Sent: Monday, 23 March 2026 3:01 pm
To: Sandra Watson <[email address]>; Giles Bollinger [TSY] <[email address]>
Cc: Maraina Hak <[email address]>; Emma Grigg <[email address]>; Carolyn Elliott
<[email address]>; James Haughton [TSY] <[email address]>
<[email address]>
Subject: RE: Question on GST revenue on fuel
Importance: High
Hi
Here is a bit more nuance: the Minister was asked at Cabinet whether the fuel excise tax take was increasing (no,
since it’s a flat rate), and on the GST point, she also speculated that any increase in GST collected on fuel would
also likely be offset by reduction in discretionary retail spending.
Any comments asap from officials to support/expand on the second question (GST collected) would be very
helpful
Thanks
Carl
5
Item 2
Page 8 of 10
Carl Harris
Private Secretary (Revenue) | Office of Hon. Nicola Willis
Minister of Finance | Minister for Economic Growth | Minister for Social Investment
M: s 9(2)(g)(ii)
E: [email address]
Parliament Buildings, Wellington 6160, New Zealand
From: Carl Harris
Sent: Monday, 23 March 2026 2:22 pm
To: Sandra Watson <[email address]>; Giles Bollinger [TSY] <[email address]>
Cc: Maraina Hak <[email address]>; Emma Grigg <[email address]>; Carolyn Elliott
<[email address]>; James Haughton [TSY] <[email address]>
<[email address]>
Subject: FW: Question on GST revenue on fuel
Importance: High
Hi Sandra and Giles
The Minister has asked whether the Government would be receiving more GST on higher fuel prices. I agree with
John that higher prices would be counteracted by reduced demand – but it’s not immediately obvious what the net
outcome would be.
MBIE have suggested this would be better answered by TSY or IR. If we don’t know the answer, a line on why would
be helpful.
Could you please let me know by
3.30pm at the latest?
Thanks
Carl
6
Item 2
Page 9 of 10
Carl Harris
Private Secretary (Revenue) | Office of Hon. Nicola Willis
Minister of Finance | Minister for Economic Growth | Minister for Social Investment
M: s 9(2)(g)(ii)
E: [email address]
Parliament Buildings, Wellington 6160, New Zealand
From: John Creech <[email address]>
Sent: Monday, 23 March 2026 2:14 pm
To: Carl Harris <[email address]>
Subject: Question on GST revenue on fuel
Hi Carl,
MBIE came back on the question I discussed with you suggesting that would be better answered by TSY/IR. Would you
mind requesting a response from your side?
At its core, the question
Is the govt making more GST on the higher prices? My presumption is that it would stay
reasonably level since demand decreases as prices increase. Trying to get responses lined up ahead of post-Cab, so
within the next hour if you can. Thanks!
Ngā mihi
John
John Creech
Private Secretary (Economic Growth) | Office of Hon Nicola Willis
Minister of Finance | Minister for Economic Growth | Minister for Social Investment
DDI: s 9(2)(g)(ii) | M: s 9(2)(g)(ii)
Email: [email address] Website: www.Beehive.govt.nz
Private Bag 18041, Parliament Buildings, Wellington 6160, New Zealand
7
Item 2
Page 10 of 10
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online at ird.govt.nz
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