[UNCLASSIFIED]
Ref: OIA 2026-001
Hayden
[FYI request #33480 email]
5 February 2026
Tēnā koe Hayden
Thank you for your request of 10 January 2026 seeking the following information under the Official
Information Act 1982 (the Act):
“1. The integrated analysis demonstrating how New Zealand simultaneously achieves:
Net zero emissions (excluding biogenic methane) by 2050 ~2% annual GDP growth (Treasury/IMF
projections) Population growth to ~6 mil ion (Stats NZ)
If no integrated analysis exists, confirm this and identify who approved these targets without one.
2. The per capita emissions pathway. Current: ~16 tonnes CO2e. Required by 2050: near zero (non-
biogenic). Population increasing 13%. GDP increasing. What's the physical mechanism? If no
pathway analysis exists, confirm this.
3. Names and roles of officials who signed off on simultaneous achievement of these targets.
I can recognise when institutional planning contradicts physical constraints. I see the same pattern
here—multiple agencies publishing targets that assume independent achievability without
integrated feasibility analysis.”
The Commission has considered your request in accordance with the Act.
Response
As you may be aware, under the Climate Change Response Act 2002 (CCRA), the Commission’s purpose is
to provide evidence-based advice to the Government on climate issues, and we are not responsible for the
approval or “sign-off” of them. The Government considers our independent advice when making its
decisions on how best to ensure Aotearoa New Zealand transitions into a thriving climate-resilient and low-
emissions economy.
With respect to emissions targets, our analysis, which informs our advice to Government, looks at how the
Government’s emissions targets including net zero by 2050 can be met. This analysis factors in projections
of population growth from Stats NZ, and assesses the impacts on the economy, including the change in
[UNCLASSIFIED]
[UNCLASSIFIED]
GDP. Details of the mechanisms by which emissions reductions are achieved is covered in ful in th
e EB4
report - which outlines the actions assumed to meet the emissions budgets and achieve the targets.
In terms of your specific questions, I can advise as fol ows:
1. The integrated analysis demonstrating how New Zealand simultaneously achieves:
•
Net zero emissions (excluding biogenic methane) by 2050 ~2% annual GDP growth
(Treasury/IMF projections) Population growth to ~6 mil ion (Stats NZ)
•
If no integrated analysis exists, confirm this and identify who approved these targets without
one.
Our most recent analysis was prepared to support our advice on the level of the fourth emissions budget
(EEB4), and the review of the 2050 emissions reduction target. This includes a number of scenarios to 2050
for how emissions could change depending on the assumptions made. This analysis is published on our
website
(https://www.climatecommission.govt.nz/our-work/advice-to-government-topic/preparing-advice-
on-emissions-budgets/advice-on-the-fourth-emissions-budget/final-report), along with the ful set of
assumptions and model ing results
(https://www.climatecommission.govt.nz/our-work/advice-to-
government-topic/preparing-advice-on-emissions-budgets/advice-on-the-fourth-emissions-
budget/model ing-and-data-final-report).
Please note that the analysis referenced above was conducted prior to the Government's recent
amendment to the level of the biogenic methane component of the 2050 emissions reduction target.
You may also be interested in the assessments made by the Ministry for the Environment at the time the
2050 emissions reduction target was first legislated. This can be found at
https://environment.govt.nz/assets/Publications/regulatory-impact-statement-zero-carbon-bil .pdf.
Questions on this analysis should be directed to the Ministry.
2. The per capita emissions pathway. Current: ~16 tonnes CO2e. Required by 2050: near zero (non-biogenic).
Population increasing 13%. GDP increasing. What's the physical mechanism? If no pathway analysis exists,
confirm this.
Calculations of emissions per capita are not an output of our analysis, as the Commission’s primary focus is
on national emissions. However, the data required to calculate emissions per capita for the range of
scenarios the Commission has modelled, is also available on our website
(https://www.climatecommission.govt.nz/assets/Advice-to-govt-docs/Target-and-budgets-final-
reports/ENZ-results-for-Final-EB4-advice.xlsx). Population data can be found in row 8 of the spreadsheet,
and emissions data on rows 17-47.
We would be very happy to answer any further questions on our analysis. Please email
[Climate Change Commission request email] if you have any additional queries.
[UNCLASSIFIED]
[UNCLASSIFIED]
3. Names and roles of officials who signed off on simultaneous achievement of these targets.
As advised, this part of your request has been transferred to the Minister of Climate Change. You will hear
from his office directly on this aspect of your request.
As the information you have requested is publicly available, we rely on section 18(d) of the Act to refuse
your request.
You have the right to seek an investigation and review of this response by the Office of the Ombudsman, in
accordance with section 28(3) of the Act. Contact details for the Ombudsman can be found on their website
at:
www.ombudsman.parliament.nz
Please note that the Commission proactively releases its responses to requests made under the Act. This is
to help ensure others can also have access to this information. As such, this letter wil shortly be published
on our website with your name and contact details redacted to protect your privacy.
Nāku noa, nā
Astrid Nunns
General Manager, Corporate Accountability and Operations
[UNCLASSIFIED]
