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Background
6. (R) On 2 March 2022, New Zealand Police undertook enforcement action against
protestors (“Freedom Convoy 2022”) occupying the vicinity of the Parliament Buildings
in Wellington. CTAG assesses that the actions of some protestors to this action meets
our threshold for violent protest, including the use of pre-planned weapons and
projectiles.
Threats 7. (R) To date, CTAG is not aware of any specific, credible threats of violent extremism
connected to the clearance. We note, however, that threatening rhetoric on social
media – particularly pseudo-legal ‘trials’ of political figures and public servants – have
been present throughout, and prior to, the “Convoy” protest and continue to manifest
following the police action [22-23-TI and 22-32-TA refer].
PMVE narratives 8. (R) CTAG assesses the anti-authority nature of the protest continues to resonate
strongly with PMVE adherents in New Zealand.
9. (R) We note that established PMVE ideologues and their adherents are already
referencing the clearance in their rhetoric, and we judge it has almost certainly
reinforced pre-existing PMVE narratives around government ‘oppression’, including:
a. (R) the inherently ‘tyrannical’ nature of government, with police ‘brutality’ as a
mechanism to suppress dissent and stifle freedom of expression;
b. (R) the ‘rejection’ of protestors by the political system, with no support from
Members of Parliament.
10. (R) We assess the clearance is almost certain to continue to feature in PMVE rhetoric
throughout the assessment period. We do not anticipate a change in the nature of this
rhetoric, which has already escalated to incorporate calls for the violent overthrow of
the Government.
“Antifa” 11. (R) As of 3 March, individuals associated with the protests have claimed that “Antifa4”
was responsible for violence during the clearance. CTAG has seen no indication of the
presence of violent extremist actors in New Zealand claiming affiliation with the “Antifa”
movement.
14-Day Outlook 12. (R) CTAG assesses that PMVEs in New Zealand are highly likely to continue to seek to
exploit legitimate, peaceful protest to propagate violent extremist rhetoric and promote
acts of ideological violence. We assess it is highly likely these efforts will continue to
resonate with a small minority of individuals within the anti-authority community.
4
Antifa: a contraction of “anti-fascist”, “Antifa” is a decentralised network of individuals opposed to fascism, racism, and other related
ideologies, sometimes through the use of violence.
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13. (R) We assess it likely a small minority of individuals in New Zealand have or will develop
the intent to carry out an act of extremist violence in relation to the clearance. We
assess this would likely be either in direct reprisal for the clearance, or out of a need to
compensate for a perceived lack of ‘success’ from the protests.
14. (R) CTAG continues to assess the most likely scenario for a PMVE act of violence in New
Zealand remains a lone actor or small group, inspired by threatening rhetoric,
conducting an attack using a basic capability5. We cannot dismiss the possibility that any
attack could manifest with little or no intelligence forewarning.
15. (R) A PMVE attack related to the clearance is almost certain to target representations of
authority, including:
a. (R) Political figures;
b. (R) Police;
c. (R) Critical infrastructure;
d. (R) Government buildings;
e. (R) Media;
f. (R) Public servants involved in COVID-19 mitigation programmes.
16. (R) CTAG continues to assess the national terrorism threat level for New Zealand as
MEDIUM;
terrorist attack is assessed as feasible and could wel occur. New Zealand
currently does not have a national threat level for violent protest.
Intel igence cut-off date: 4 March 2022
5
Basic capability: a capability readily available to the general public in the environment. In New Zealand, this includes bladed weapons, blunt force
instruments, vehicles, some firearms and low-sophistication improvised explosive devices. [21-80-TI
Terrorist Attack Capability Continuum refers]
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