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NATIONAL SECURITY SITUATION
UPDATE: RAMADAN 2018
To
Assistant Commissioners, District Commanders
Approved by
Assistant Commissioner Mike Pannett
Prepared by
National Intelligence Centre (NIC) Security Intelligence and Threats Group (SITG)
Release Date
17 May 2018
Introduction
1.
This is a national security situation update for senior staff, intended to enhance awareness of potential
national security issues.
Summary
2.
The Muslim holy month of Ramadan commenced on 15 May and will end on 15 June 2018, although
the exact date may vary from region to region. The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, a.k.a. ISIS
or Daesh) terrorist group issued calls for attacks during Ramadan in 2015, 2016, and 2017, and may yet
do so in 2018. These calls have led to increased terrorist attacks from supporters across the globe.
3.
Ramadan in 2018 follows the 70th anniversary of the establishment of Israel and the movement of the
US Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem on 14 May, further inflaming tensions in the Middle East.
4.
Released
Internationally Ramadan is also Under OIA
a period of increased risk to the Mu Request
slim community, due to either the
backlash following any terrorist events, the increased profile of the Muslim community during this
period, or a combination of the two.
5.
There is no specific intelligence indicating an attack is being planned in New Zealand at this time, and
the national threat level remains LOW – an attack is possible but not expected.
6.
Effective prevention, planning, readiness, and engagement will reduce the likelihood and potential
impact of incidents and enable Police to respond effectively should an incident occur.
Background
7.
The Muslim holy month of Ramadan has started and concludes with the celebration of Eid al-Fitr on
15 June 2018. Ramadan commemorates the revelation of the Qu’ran to the Prophet Muhammad.
During this period, Muslims will fast during the hours of daylight, breaking their fast in the evening
with a meal (iftar), often taken communally. Ramadan will see increased attendance at Mosques to
participate in iftar meals and for services, such as those related to Laylat al-Qadr (Night of Power) on
10-11 June. Ramadan can also be expected to increase the visibility and media coverage of the Muslim
community, mosques, and specific events during this time.
8.
As a period of spiritual reflection and atonement, Ramadan is considered to be a time where bad
behaviour is particularly frowned upon, and good deeds are even more valuable than in other months.
However, in recent years ISIS propaganda has called for attacks during Ramadan, naming it the “month
of martyrdom” and for supporters to “maximize the benefit you receive on the day of judgement.”
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9.
While Police are not aware of a specific call by ISIL or other terrorist groups for attacks in Ramadan in
2018, propaganda calling for attacks was issued by ISIL in 2015, 2016, and 2017, and may be
forthcoming or not yet have been identified in 2018.
10. In recent years this propaganda led to a surge in terrorist attacks. In 2016, Ramadan saw 17 attacks
carried out by ISIL supporters, roughly the same number that had occurred in the previous 12 months.
Attacks occurred across the Middle East, Asia, and the West, including the attack on the Pulse
nightclub in Orlando, Florida, USA; the attack on Ataturk Airport in Tukey; and the killing of a Police
officer and his wife in France. In 2017 attacks during Ramadan by ISIL supporters included the London
Bridge attack in the UK, an attack on Parliament in Iran, and the Brighton Siege in Australia.
11. Ramadan in 2018 immediately follows other events that inflame tensions in the Middle East. The day
before Ramadan, 14 May, is the 70th anniversary of the establishment of the state of Israel, called by
Palestinians the Nakba (catastrophe). The United States Embassy in Israel officially moved to Jerusalem
on 14 May, a move widely perceived as endorsing the Israeli occupation of Jerusalem and undermining
the existing peace process.1 This has already led to mass demonstrations and violence.
12. Internationally, Ramadan is also a time of increased risk for the Muslim community, due to either the
backlash following terrorist events, the increased profile of the Muslim community during this period,
or a combination of the two. In addition to vandalism, verbal altercations, and online harassment, this
has also led to violence. During Ramadan in 2017, verbal harassment of Muslims escalated into a
stabbing incident where two men were killed in Portland, USA, and a vehicle ramming attack on
worshippers exiting the Finsbury Park Mosque in London, UK.
NZ Context
13. Released
The national terrorist threat lev Under OIA
el in New Zealand is currently asse
Request
ssed as LOW - an attack is possible,
but is not expected. There is no intelligence as to any specific threat.
14. However, this intelligence could be incomplete or the situation could change at short notice.
Internationally, attacks have taken place with little warning.
15. The Muslim community in New Zealand has experienced sporadic incidents of vandalism and abuse.
While not frequent, incidents do create widespread concern among the community when they do
occur, as well as attention from the media.
Considerations
16. New Zealand continues to be low threat environment relative to other peer nations. However, Police
need to remain aware of potential threats and risks, particularly given that an incident could occur
with little or no warning.
17. Effective prevention, planning, readiness, and engagement will reduce the likelihood and potential
impact of incidents and enable Police to respond effectively should an incident occur.
18. Districts and operational groups are asked to consider the following enduring principles:
Prevention
Take potential threats, for example vehicular attacks, into account as part of operational planning
around public spaces and events.
1 128 nations, including New Zealand, voted for a United Nations resolution condemning the move in December 2017
(9 nations were opposed).
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Readiness
Staff should be appropriately briefed on potential threat scenarios, and, where appropriate,
national security POIs in their area.
Staff deployed to potential risk locations and operations should have access to appropriate tactical
options.
Engagement
Effective engagement with communities is essential to ensuring that trust and confidence is
maintained, information is shared, and communities can passively and actively support
preventative Police action where necessary.
Engagement with partners, such as private security firms, event planners and site operators also
provides an opportunity to ensure that they are appropriately aware of potential threat scenarios.
19. In the absence of specific threat intelligence, these steps and others will enhance security and provide
reassurance.
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This document is the property of New Zealand Police. Unauthorised possession of this document is an offence under section 50 of the Policing Act 2008,
carrying a maximum penalty of 3 months imprisonment, or a fine of $2000, or both.
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