Zone boundary recommendations Nov 2015.pdf

Zone boundaries
Recommended changes
November 2015

2
Background – the issue
• As per previous feedback from the Board, we need to minimise
passengers being impacted by fare increases as a result of integrated
fares.
• The worst impacted passengers are passengers going from current 1
stage fares to 2 zone fares (an increase from $1.70 to $3.30).
• Based on our modelling the current zone boundaries would result in
870,000 bus and train passenger trips going from 1 stage to 2 zones
(representing 1.2% of overall patronage).
• 20% of these passengers will be school children, and during the public
consultation in May/June AT received substantial feedback from some
schools (particularly Rangitoto and Murrays Bay Intermediate).

3
Options
There are 3 viable options:
1.
Do nothing – accept that these passengers will be impacted by the new
fare structure and be ready for the negative feedback at launch
2.
Increase zone overlaps to mitigate “losers”
3.
Limit changes to school bus routes (or school bus stops)
Of the 3 options only options (1) and (2) are recommended in this paper as
option (3) would result in different fares for students who use urban
services for the same routes which goes against a fundamental driver of
integrated fares.

4
Recommendations
Zone boundary
Impacted passengers
Recommendation
Passenger
trips
Revenue impact
mitigated
Upper North Shore / Lower
129K
passenger
trips
of
Increase overlap around Mairangi Bay by
129K passenger trips
-$212K
North Shore
which 111K are on school
putting 11 additional stops in overlap (see
mitigated
(111K
buses
(Rangitoto
College,
attachment 1).
school)
Murrays Bay Intermediate)
Isthmus
/
Waitakere
24K passenger trips impacted
Increase overlap from zone boundary to
24K
passenger
trips
-$21K
(Blockhouse
Bay
/
Green
(11K school bus)
Blockhouse Bay (see attachment 2)
mitigated (11K school)
Bay)
Isthmus
/
Waitakere
9K passenger trips (9K school
No change as impacted schools are a long
-
-
(Avondale)
bus)
way from zone boundary.
Waitakere
/
Huapai
8K
passenger
trips
(no
No change as very small benefit
-
-
(Westgate)
school)
City / Isthmus (Mt Eden)
Mt
Eden
is
the
largest
No
change
due
to
expected
change
in
-
-
contributor to 1 stage to 2
passenger behaviour (they can walk 1 stop to
zone
fares
with
272K
avoid the fare increase).
passenger trips
City / Isthmus (Orakei)
249K
passenger
trips
No change as Hobson Bay is logical boundary.
-
-
impacted
due
to
putting
Orakei station into Isthmus
zone
City / Isthmus (Newmarket)
4K passenger trips
No change as any change will result in
-
-
substantial lost revenue.
Isthmus / Manukau North
22K
passenger
trips
(4K
No change as limited benefit and only to
-
-
(Pakuranga)
school)
students travelling outside their school zone
Manukau North / Manukau
90K
passenger
trips
Increase overlap to include puhinui train
25K mitigated
-$57K
South (Puhinui and Clover
impacted (no school)
station and to along puhinui road (see
Park)
attachment 3)
Summary
870K pax impacted (159K
178K mitigated (122K
-$290
school)
school)

5
Summary
• Through increasing overlap 3 zone boundaries (45 stops) we would
address 77% of impacted school trips and 8% of urban trips at a total
cost of around $300K per annum (maximum)
•
Actual lost revenue may be substantially less as these changes may result
in additional patronage, and the $300K assumes all passengers
experiencing the fare increase continue to use PT (no elasticity effect
which is generally around -0.34)
• One option would be to communicate that the extent of overlaps in the
network may be reduced over time once passengers are used to the
new zonal structure