133 Molesworth Street
PO Box 5013
Wellington 6140
New Zealand
T+64 4 496 2000
16 April 2026
John Armstrong
By email: [FYI request #34047 email]
Ref: H2026080193
Tēnā koe John
Response to your request for official information
Thank you for your request under the Official Information Act 1982 (the Act) to the Ministry of
Health – Manatū Hauora (the Ministry) on 17 March 2026 for information regarding Covid-19
policy decisions. You requested:
“I request copies of epidemiological modelling, scenario analyses, or projections that were
provided to Ministers or Cabinet to support decisions relating to:
• COVID-19 lockdown measures
• vaccine mandates
• vaccination strategies.
The timeframe for this request is 1 March 2020 to 31 December 2022. If modelling was
commissioned from external organisations or academic institutions, please include those
reports.”
Epidemiological modelling of COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations, and deaths is contained in
some of the COVID-19 Trends and Insights Reports which are publicly available here:
www.health.govt.nz/information-releases/covid-19-trends-and-insights-reports-december-2021-
september-2022. No further information has been identified as within scope of your request.
Decisions regarding COVID-19 lockdown measures was the responsibility of the Department of
the Prime Minister and Cabinet (DPMC). They may hold some information related to your query;
they can be contacted at
[email address].
If you wish to discuss any aspect of your request with us, including this decision, please feel
free to contact the OIA Services Team on: [email address].
Under section 28(3) of the Act, you have the right to ask the Ombudsman to review any
decisions made under this request. The Ombudsman may be contacted by email at:
[email address] or by cal ing 0800 802 602.
Please note that this response, with your personal details removed, may be published on the
Ministry website at:
www.health.govt.nz/about-ministry/information-releases/responses-official-
information-act-requests. Nāku noa, nā
Kristie Carter
Group Manager, Surveillance, Insights and Monitoring Public Health Agency | Te Pou Hauora Tūmatanui
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