31 March 2026
Ref: OIA-2025/26-0578
John Armstrong
[FYI request #34047 email]
Tēnā koe John,
Official Information Act request relating to COVID-19 policy decisions
Thank you for your Official Information Act 1982 (the Act) request, which was received by the
Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (DPMC) on 12 March 2026. You requested:
I request copies of epidemiological modelling, scenario analyses, or projections that
were provided to Ministers or Cabinet to support decisions relating to:
• COVID-19 lockdown measures
• vaccine mandates
• vaccination strategies.
The timeframe for this request is 1 March 2020 to 31 December 2022.
If modelling was commissioned from external organisations or academic institutions,
please include those reports.
On 17 March 2026 you were advised that your request was partially transferred to the
Ministry of Health (MoH) for any information they may hold. The MoH wil respond to you
directly.
The response to the COVID-19 pandemic generated a significant volume of work that was
happening at pace. This was particularly the case during the early days of the pandemic
response. DPMC led the coordination of the all-of-government response to COVID-19 and
we hold a huge volume of documents, many of which were authored by other agencies and
include various draft versions of documents. To be able to identify all of the documents that
may include some information relevant to your request would require substantial collation
and research and therefore it is refused under section 18(f) of the Act.
I have considered whether consulting you may enable a reframing of this query such that the
reason for refusal is alleviated; however, I did not identify any amendment that would enable
us to readily respond. I have also considered extending the timeframe for response and/or
fixing a charge and determined that neither would enable or remove the reason for refusal.
However, we have been able to identify information which cover the key documents relevant
to your request. These are all publicly available and are set out below.
Information publicly available
One of the ways in which epidemiological modelling was provided to Ministers or Cabinet
was in the form of the
COVID-19 Response Weekly Report.
5148605
Executive Wing, Parliament Buildings, Wellington, New Zealand 6011
64 4 817 9698 www.dpmc.govt.nz
DPMC provided this report to the COVID-19 Minister which the team compiled by drawing on
input from other agencies. These are proactively released and can be viewed at the following
link:
https://www.dpmc.govt.nz/publications/covid-19-weekly-reports-and-situation-updates This includes updates from the COVID-19 Modelling Governance Group which oversaw a
modelling research programme. Established and chaired by The Treasury, DPMC was a
member and managed a number of the contracts for modelling advice. The COVID-19
Modelling Governance Group provided strategic direction and oversight and prioritised the
epidemiological, economic and social questions to be answered through modelling work.
Information which wil be of use to you has previously been released in this
OIA:
https://fyi.org.nz/request/16178/response/70596/attach/4/TOIA%20Reply%2020210519
%20Modelling%20Governance%20Group.pdf
DPMC’s policy advice was informed by these model ing and analysis efforts. Modelling
advice provided to Ministers was included in Cabinet papers and briefings which have been
proactively released her
e https://www.dpmc.govt.nz/our-programmes/other-work/historical-
programmes/covid-19-proactive-releases
Some examples include:
• Cabinet paper
COVID-19 Response: 6 September Review of Alert Level Settings. On
page 4 contains the updated modelling in relation to the current outbreak, available at
the following li
nk: https://www.dpmc.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2023-01/ALC6-
06092021-COVID-19-Response-6-September-Review-of-Alert-Level-Settings.pdf
• Cabinet paper
COVID-19: A Strategy for a Highly Vaccinated New Zealand which
contains eight references to modelling from pages 6-14, available at the following link:
https://www.dpmc.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2023-01/COVID-19-A-Strategy-for-a-
Highly-Vaccinated-New-Zealand.pdfV2.pdf
• Cabinet paper
The COVID-19 Response after the peak of Omicron which references
modelling on a number of pages for example pages 5-6, 22, 41 and available at the
following li
nk: https://www.dpmc.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2023-01/PO01-21032022-
The-COVID-Response-After-the-Peak-of-Omicron.pdf
The below links also provide a summary of advice from the COVID-19 Model ing Governance
Group and the COVID-19 Modelling Steering Group that was produced or co-produced by
DPMC.
https://www.dpmc.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2023-01/JU12-29062021-Vaccination-Modelling-
in-the-International-Context.pdf
https://covid19.govt.nz/assets/Proactive-Releases/Alert-levels-and-restrictions/10-Dec-
2021/CRIAG-10-December-2021/DA07-27072021-COVID-19-Independent-Continuous-
Review-Improvement-and-Advice-Group-Minutes.pdf
In addition, The Treasury completed economic model ing, scenarios and analysis that was
based on epidemiological modelling from MoH. The following COVID-19 information release
includes material on this economic modelling which were used to support the below
decisions
(COVID-19 information releases | The Treasury New Zealand, i.e.
Treasury Report
T2020/973: Economic scenarios - 13 April 2020) You have the right to ask the Ombudsman to investigate and review my decision under
section 28(3) of the Act.
5148605
2
This response wil be published on the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet’s
website during our regular publication cycle. Typically, information is released monthly, or as
otherwise determined. Your personal information including name and contact details wil be
removed for publication.
Nāku noa, nā
Alan Cassidy
Deputy Chief Executive
Corporate
5148605
3
