Reference: 20260148
26 March 2026
Hayden.
[FYI request #33906 email]
Dear Hayden
Thank you for your Official Information Act request, received on 1 March 2026. You
requested the following:
Treasury's Te Tai Waiora 2022 identified rapidly increasing youth psychological
distress, worst-in-OECD teen suicide rates, declining youth educational
achievement, and housing unaffordability as major threats to future wel being.
Treasury's fiscal projections simultaneously assume sustained workforce growth
and tax revenue expansion from the same cohort experiencing these outcomes.
What analysis has Treasury conducted to quantify:
(a) the fiscal impact of youth mortality, declining mental health, and reduced
workforce participation on projected revenue;
(b) the contribution of Treasury's own fiscal policy settings — including benefit
adequacy, housing policy, and the allocation of $3B in new defence spending
(which Treasury itself estimated would halve child poverty if redirected) — to the
deterioration in youth outcomes that Treasury's own wel being reporting
identifies; and
(c) whether Treasury's revenue projections remain valid given the compound
effect of worsening youth outcomes on the future tax base?"
Information does not exist
The Treasury does not hold any analysis that addresses your questions. Accordingly,
your request is refused under section 18(e) of the Official Information Act - the
document alleged to contain the information requested does not exist. However, the
Treasury has coordinated some explanatory context that we trust wil be useful to you.
The Treasury is not the lead policy advisor on social welfare, mental health or justice
matters. Responsibility for this sits with other government departments such as the
Ministry of Social Development, the Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Justice. The
Treasury’s role in these areas focuses on providing second opinion advice to Ministers
on policy or spending proposals from the relevant Minister or department. As such, the
Treasury generally does not conduct cost-benefit or efficiency analysis in these policy
areas, but we may provide Ministers with our views on any such analysis undertaken
by the relevant lead government department.
Agencies provide the Treasury with fiscal forecasts, appropriation details, Performance
Plans and Budget initiatives for review, collation and consolidation within the fiscal
1 The Terrace
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Wellington 6140
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tel. +64-4-472-2733
https://treasury.govt.nz
forecasts depending on the nature of the information. That means the Treasury does
not routinely initiate and conduct specific evaluations of social spending.
When advising on the appropriate fiscal settings, the Treasury considers likely effects
on general social outcomes and monetary conditions. This includes modelling the
effects of fiscal policy on variables such as income distribution and income levels.
However, we do not do model the specific health and social impacts of different fiscal
policy options and decisions.
Please note that this letter (with your personal details removed) may be published on
the Treasury website.
This reply addresses the information you requested. Under section 28(3) of the Act,
you have the right to ask the Ombudsman to review any decisions made under this
request.
Yours sincerely
Jean Le Roux
Senior Manager, Social Sector, Communities and Learning
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