133 Molesworth Street
PO Box 5013
Wellington 6140
New Zealand
T+64 4 496 2000
3 February 2026
Spencer Jones
By email: [FYI request #33301 email]
Ref:
H2025077117
Tēnā koe Spencer
Response to your request for official information Thank you for your request under the Official Information Act 1982 (the Act) to the Ministry of
Health – Manatū Hauora (the Ministry) on 17 December 2025 for information regarding excess
mortality. You requested:
1. Please identify which agency or agencies (if any) are responsible for:
- Analysing excess mortality (observed vs expected deaths), or
- Commissioning or overseeing such analyses at a national level.
The Ministry collaborates with the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) to support
the publication of observed and expected deaths within the Global Burden of Disease Study.
This information can be used for the development of excess mortality for New Zealand.
2. Please advise whether the Ministry of Health or Health NZ – Te Whatu Ora:
- Has produced, commissioned, received, or relied upon any excess-mortality
analyses since 2015 (whether published or unpublished).
Since 2015, the Ministry has worked with IHME to produce burden of disease estimates for New
Zealand. Excess mortality can be derived through the expected vs observed deaths data. This
data, the latest being for 2023, can be found on the IHME website through the following link:
www.healthdata.org/data-tools-practices/interactive-data-visuals. As part of the COVID-19 response, there was work done in 2022 to develop an indicator that
tracks whether death rates are tracking atypically compared to pre-pandemic patterns.
Information regarding this indicator is in
Aide-Memoire Publication of Excess Mortality Statistics
(DPMC-2021/22-2148) which is publicly available through the following link:
www.dpmc.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2023-01/Publication-of-Excess-Mortality-Statistics-12-05-
2022.pdf. As such, section 18(d) of the Act applies to this part of your request.
3. If no such analyses are held, please confirm:
- Whether excess mortality analysis is considered outside the scope of all New
Zealand public health agencies, and
- Whether the Ministry relies solely on external or international bodies for such
analysis.
As mentioned above, excess mortality statistics for New Zealand (derived via expected
vs observed deaths measures) are produced by IHME in collaboration with the Ministry.
4. Please provide any documents, briefings, or internal guidance that describe:
- How mortality data is interpreted for population-level risk assessment in the
absence of excess-mortality modelling.
The Ministry primarily use a combination of mortality rates, life expectancy and Years of Life
Lost to interpret population-level risk through mortality. Examples of these are included in:
• Health New Zealand – Te Whatu Ora (HNZ) Mortality data web tool
-
www.tewhatuora.govt.nz/for-health-professionals/data-and-statistics/mortality/data-
web-tool.
• HNZs Life expectancy report -
www.tewhatuora.govt.nz/publications/life-expectancy-in-
aotearoa-an-analysis-of-socioeconomic-geographic-sex-and-ethnic-variation-from-2001-
to-2022,
• The Ministry’s Health and Independence report -
www.health.govt.nz/publications/health-and-independence-report-2024,
• The Ministry’s Global Burden of Disease Māori estimates
- www.health.govt.nz/statistics-
research/research/global-burden-of-disease-study/maori-estimates.
These publications include the relevant notes on interpretation and use of these indicators for
population-level mortality risk. Section 18(d) of the Act applies to this part of your request.
If you wish to discuss any aspect of your request with us, including this decision, please feel
free to contact the OIA Services Team on:
[email address]. Under section 28(3) of the Act, you have the right to ask the Ombudsman to review any
decisions made under this request. The Ombudsman may be contacted by email at:
[email address] or by cal ing 0800 802 602.
Please note that this response, with your personal details removed, may be published on the
Ministry website at:
www.health.govt.nz/about-ministry/information-releases/responses-official-
information-act-requests. Nāku noa, nā
Andy Bartle
Acting Group Manager, Data Analytics and Surveys Strategy and Policy | Te Pou Rautaki
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