4 March 2026
26-OIAD-00077
Andrew Riddell
[FYI request #33134 email]
Tēnā koe Andrew,
Thank you for your email of 14 January 2026 requesting the following under the Official Information
Act 1982 (the Act) of the Ministry for the Environment (the Ministry):
Radio New Zealand reports that the government have rejected recent recommendations from
the Climate Change Commission over methane emission levels and the 2050 emission target. It reported that the rejection was based on analysis showed that following the Climate
Commission's recommendations would come at an economic cost to Aotearoa New Zealand -
"Modelling indicates that GDP would be 0.4 percent lower than the status quo in 2035, and 2.2
percent lower in 2050."
Please provide copies of the model ing referred to, include all assumptions made with respect
to assessing the impact of cost of the recommended emissions reductions on GDP and with
respect to assessing the impact on GDP of not following the Climate Commission's
recommendations these impacts would include the modelled GDP reduction arising from
climate change enhanced storm events, droughts and sea level rise until 2050).
I have identified two documents in scope of your request, as outlined in the document schedule
below. I am releasing both documents to you in full.
The spreadsheet titled
PE-Climate Outputs for the Government's 2025 Final ERP4 Advice contains
detailed results of the modelling carried out to support the Government’s decision on the 2050
target. Ten different emissions scenarios were considered as part of this modelling. A description
of the different scenarios is provided in the “Introduction” tab.
I am refusing your request for the model under section 18(g)(i) of the Act, as the information
requested is not held by the department or venture or Minister of the Crown or organisation and
the person dealing with the request has no grounds for believing that the information is either held
by another department (for itself and for a departmental agency hosted by it or an
interdepartmental executive board serviced by it) or interdepartmental venture or Minister of the
Crown or organisation, or by a local authority.
Modelling for the Ministry was undertaken by Principal Economics, an independent economics
consultancy. I am providing the document titled
Emissions Reduction Plan 4 – PE-Climate
Sensitivity Analysis Results in full, which sets out the modelling approach and findings.
You have the right to seek an investigation and review by the Office of the Ombudsman of my
decisions relating to this request, in accordance with section 28(3) of the Act. The relevant details
can be found at: www.ombudsman.parliament.nz.
PO Box 10362, Wellington 6143 | Freephone 0800 499 700 | environment.govt.nz
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Please note that due to the public interest in our work, the Ministry publishes responses to requests
for official information shortly after the response has been sent on our website at:
https://environment.govt.nz/about-us/official-information-act-requests/. If you have any queries
about this, please feel free to contact our Ministerial Services team at: [email address].
Nāku noa, nā
Stephen Goodman
General Manager – Mitigation Policy
Ministry for the Environment | Manatū Mō Te Taiao
PO Box 10362, Wellington 6143 | Freephone 0800 499 700 | environment.govt.nz
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