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Memo - Economic impacts Bendigo-Ophir Gold Project updated for June 2025 PFS.
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Prepared for Matakanui Gold Limited (Santana NZ subsidiary), by Benje Patterson, August 2025.
Memo - Economic impacts of the Bendigo-Ophir Gold Project
updated for Pre-Feasibility Study – June 2025
This memo quantifies the potential economic impacts of the Bendigo-Ophir Gold Project
(BOGP), which is being developed by Santana Minerals Limited (New Zealand subsidiary is
Matakanui Gold Limited). The findings in this memo represent a refreshed analysis of the
BOGP’s economic impacts using data in the Updated Pre-Feasibility Study – June 2025. This
analysis builds on an earlier economic impact assessment framework prepared using the Initial
Pre-Feasibility Study – November
20241. All figures are in New Zealand Dollar terms.
Summary of key findings
• The cumulative direct GDP effects of the BOGP on the Otago economy are projected to be
$5.8 billion over the project duratio
n2, at an average of $360 million of GDP per year.
o
There has been a significant increase to the projected cumulative GDP effects, with
estimates from the initial PFS showing $4.5 billion of direct GDP, compared to the
$5.8 billion of GDP that is now projected using the updated PFS.
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• A total of $1.8 billion of revenue will be generated for the government, via royalties,
corporate taxes, PAYE and ACC payments.
• The BOGP will directly support an average 357 staff a year.
o
On top of the jobs directly supported by the BOGP’s mining operations, there are
also employment multiplier effects that could accrue throughout Otago and the rest
of New Zealand. For every direct job, there is the potential for a further 1.4 jobs to be
created through multiplier channels.
o
Employment multipliers capture two effects. The first effect is jobs created among
suppliers from the BOGP’s procurement (indirect employment), while the other
effect is jobs created from providing goods and services (e.g. supermarkets, health,
education, etc) to meet the needs of mine workers (induced employment).
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o
Indirect employment could potentially average 281 jobs on top of the 357 jobs
directly at the BOGP, while the induced employment effect could amount to another
216 jobs.
• Jobs will be highly productive and highly paid. The BOGP is estimated to contribute $1.0
million of GDP per worker, which is 7.5 times the current average productivity across Inland
Otag
o3.
• The average wage for workers employed by the BOGP is estimated at $140,300 a year, which
is 104% higher than the average wage in Inland Otago of $68,904 in 2024.
• Sourcing hundreds of workers will be a complex recruitment exercise, but the Inland Otago
LGOIMA
job market has previously demonstrated it can absorb such employment lifts. Workers have
been attracted to Inland Otago to fill more than 18,000 new jobs in the 10 years to 2024.
1 Further information regarding the framework for estimating the economic impacts of the BOGP can be
found in: Benje Patterson (February 2025), “Economic Impacts of the Bendigo-Ophir Gold Project”.
2 Across the 13.8 years of active mining, as well as the earlier pre-mining phase.
3 Inland Otago includes Central Otago and Queenstown Lakes districts, which aligns to the Project’s core
area of influence within Otago Region.
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Memo - Economic impacts Bendigo-Ophir Gold Project updated for June 2025 PFS.
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Prepared for Matakanui Gold Limited (Santana NZ subsidiary), by Benje Patterson, August 2025.
Detailed results and comparisons
This remainder of this memo introduces updates to key project assumptions that underpinned
the economic analysis, as well as more information behind the key findings summarised above.
Core project assumptions
Core project assumptions in the updated PFS are compared against the initial PFS
in Table 1.
The BOGP is expected to yield 1.25 million ounces of gold across an initial
mine life of 13.8 years. The Project is anticipated to generate $6.75 billion of
revenue (net of sel ing costs) and make payments of $2.91 billion for royalties,
operating expenses, and capital expenses.
There has been a significant lift in anticipated gold production and revenue since the initial PFS
was prepared in November 2024, while operating expenditure and royalties have also risen
significantly. The increases to these metrics more than outweigh the minimal reduction to
capital investment in mining infrastructure, which is why the economic impacts estimated using
the updated PFS are higher.
Table 1
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Bendigo-Ophir Gold Project - key production, revenue, and spending highlights
Data drawn from Santana financial models that informed the PFS, financials expressed in NZD terms
Production highlights
PFS - Nov. 2024
UPDATED PFS - JUN. 2025
Gold production
1.15 mil ion ounces
1.25 mil ion ounces
Gold yields (gold per tonne of ore mined)
2.30 g/t (average)
2.54 g/t (average)
Initial mine life
9.17 years
13.8 years
Gold price
USD 2,685
USD 3,138
NZD:USD exchange rate
0.596
0.58
Revenue & spending highlights (NZD terms)
Gold revenue (net of sel ing costs)
$5.17 billion
$6.75 billion
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Operating expenditure (OPEX) and royalties
$1.71 billion
$2.38 billion
EBITDA
$3.47 billion
$4.38 billion
Capital expenditure (CAPEX)
$0.60 billion
$0.53 billion
Direct economic impacts (measured by GDP)
The cumulative direct GDP effects of the Project are estimated to be $5.8
billion at an average of $359 million of GDP per annum.
LGOIMA
Direct economic impacts have been measured by GDP. Using GDP is appropriate because GDP
is New Zealand’s official measure of economic growt
h4. GDP is the economics equivalent of an
accounting profit. The key difference between the two is that economic profits (GDP) consider
the value added widely across the economy for both labour (workers) and capital (financial,
physical assets, intangible) before tax, while accounting profits only focus on returns to the
owner of the business in question.
4 According t
o Statistics New Zealand. Gross Domestic Product June 2024 release.
Memo - Economic impacts Bendigo-Ophir Gold Project updated for June 2025 PFS.
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Prepared for Matakanui Gold Limited (Santana NZ subsidiary), by Benje Patterson, August 2025.
Most GDP effects occur once the mine is operational and producing gold – with $5.6 billion of
GDP directly generated by mining operations. To enable this GDP from gold producing mining
operations to occur, there is $533 million of capital investment that will take place over the
mine’s life. Data from Infometrics shows that for every $1 of capital investment spent, there is
$0.32 of economic value added (GDP) because of additional demand within the civil
infrastructure and engineering sector, which means that GDP generated from building
infrastructure and processing capacity directly adds a further $175 million of GDP to the
Project, in addition to the $5.6 billion of operational mining GDP that the investment enables.
Table 2
Bendigo-Ophir Gold Project estimated direct contribution of GDP to Otago economy
Annual GDP in $ million, 2025 pricing, author calculations with June 2025 Pre-Feasibility Study update
GDP from building
Year
GDP from operations
infrastructure
Total Direct GDP
Year -2
$0.0m
$15.4m
$15.4m
Year -1
$0.0m
$82.8m
$82.8m
Year 1
$261.0m
$28.1m
$289.1m
Year 2
$472.2m
$1.8m
$474.0m
Year 3
$494.7m
$1.0m
$495.7m
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Year 4
$487.2m
$1.0m
$488.2m
Year 5
$522.2m
$12.5m
$534.7m
Year 6
$466.0m
$15.9m
$481.8m
Year 7
$479.1m
$6.9m
$486.0m
Year 8
$374.0m
$0.7m
$374.7m
Year 9
$465.3m
$0.9m
$466.3m
Year 10
$433.2m
$0.7m
$433.9m
Year 11
$355.9m
$0.6m
$356.5m
Year 12
$427.9m
$0.4m
$428.3m
Year 13
$264.2m
$0.4m
$264.6m
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Year 14
$76.2m
$6.2m
$82.4m
Total (Year -2 to 14)
$5,579.1m
$175.4m
$5,754.5m
Average annual
$348.7m
$11.0m
$359.7m
There has been a significant increase to the cumulative GDP effects, with
estimates from the initial PFS showing $4.5 billion of direct GDP, compared to
the $5.8 bil ion of GDP that is now projected using the updated PFS.
Table 3
LGOIMA
Bendigo-Ophir Gold Project total cumulative direct GDP - updated PFS vs initial PFS
Total cumulative GDP in $ million, author calculations updated PFS - Jun. 2025 vs PFS - Nov. 2024
GDP from operations
GDP from building
infrastructure
Total Direct GDP
Updated PFS - Jun. 2025
$5,579.1m
$175.4m
$5,754.5m
Initial PFS - Nov. 2024
$4,279.8m
$198.4m
$4,478.2m
Memo - Economic impacts Bendigo-Ophir Gold Project updated for June 2025 PFS.
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Prepared for Matakanui Gold Limited (Santana NZ subsidiary), by Benje Patterson, August 2025.
Government revenue contribution
It is estimated that of the $5.8 billion of GDP directly generated by the Project,
the government will receive approximately $1.8 billion of revenue in the form
of mining royalties, corporate taxes, PAYE, and ACC payments.
The majority of government taxation revenue directly generated by the Bendigo-Ophir Gold
Project will be corporate taxes paid by Matakanui Gold Ltd ($1,074 million), and royalty
payments for gold mined as a crown mineral ($448 million). Income tax payments (capturing
PAYE and ACC) will generate a further $186 million of government revenue.
Additionally, there will be a further $82 million of corporate taxes paid to government due to
profits made by other parties – these profits occur both directly as a result of Matakanui Gold
Ltd making royalty payments to landowners and prior mining permit holders, as well as profits
made by businesses being directly contracted to develop mining infrastructure and processing
capacity for Matakanui Gold Ltd.
The $1.8 billion of estimated government revenue generated directly by the
Project is equivalent to 31% of total direct project GDP. This estimated
government revenue under the updated PFS sits $0.4 billion higher than it did
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under the initial PFS.
Table 4
Government revenue directly generated by the Bendigo-Ophir Gold Project
Estimated government revenue directly from BOGP mine operations + investment
Source
INITIAL PFS -
UPDATED PFS -
Nov. 2024
JUN. 2025
Royalty payments (gold as crown mineral)
$338m
$448m
Corporate taxes: Santana
$829m
$1,074m
Corporate taxes: Others (other royalties & supporting investment)
$77m
$82m
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Income taxes: PAYE and ACC
$147m
$186m
Total government revenue directly generated by BOGP
$1,391m
$1,789m
Employment supported by the Project
Total direct employment from the BOGP is estimated to average 357 staff a
year across the Project duration.
The biggest determinant of employment fluctuations over the lifespan of the Project is
LGOIMA
employment directly related to supporting investment to build mine infrastructure and
processing capacity.
Operational employment is relatively steady across the core mining years.
Memo - Economic impacts Bendigo-Ophir Gold Project updated for June 2025 PFS.
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Prepared for Matakanui Gold Limited (Santana NZ subsidiary), by Benje Patterson, August 2025.
Table 5
Estimated direct employment supported by Bendigo-Ophir Gold Project
Jobs supported by the Project (average), calculations with June 2025 Pre-Feasibility Study update
Year
Employment from
Employment from
Total direct
operations
capital investment
employment
Year -2
0
100
100
Year -1
0
529
529
Year 1
351
177
528
Year 2
351
4
355
Year 3
351
4
355
Year 4
351
7
358
Year 5
346
72
419
Year 6
323
86
409
Year 7
323
36
359
Year 8
323
4
327
Year 9
323
6
329
Year 10
323
4
327
Year 11
323
3
326
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Year 12
323
2
325
Year 13
316
2
319
Year 14
313
37
350
Average (all years)
290
67
357
Average direct employment for the Project estimated under the updated PFS
(357 jobs) is relatively unchanged from the initial PFS which showed 364 jobs.
But as will be shown shortly, higher levels of economic activity are anticipated
to translate into increased productivity (GDP per job) and wages.
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Alongside the employment directly generated by the BOGP’s mining operations and investment,
there are also additional employment multiplier effects that will accrue throughout Otago and
New Zealand. These multiplier effects include:
• Indirect multiplier effects on employment which occur because of the BOGP’s
procurement of goods and services from other businesses.
• Induced multiplier effects on employment which occur because direct and indirect
workers will need to be provided with goods and services to support their lifestyles (e.g.
supermarkets, medical, education, personal services, etc).
LGOIMA
For every direct job at the BOGP, there is the potential to create a further 1.4
jobs through multiplier effects.
Fully achieving multiplier effects will rely on downstream investment and recruitment by
suppliers and other businesses to lift their own capacity. Once this downstream capacity builds
opportunities for additional employment impacts to accrue through multiplier effects will
increase. However, such a process of building capacity will take time, as such the multiplier
effects presented below should be taken as a theoretical maximum.
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Memo - Economic impacts Bendigo-Ophir Gold Project updated for June 2025 PFS.
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Prepared for Matakanui Gold Limited (Santana NZ subsidiary), by Benje Patterson, August 2025.
On top of the 357 direct jobs at the BOGP there could be a further 497 jobs
through multiplier channels across Otago and New Zealand. Of these
multiplier effects, 281 would be indirect jobs with suppliers supported by the
BOGP, while a further 216 jobs could be induced through providing goods and
services to support the needs of these direct and indirect workers.
Table 6
Potential jobs induced from supplying goods and services to direct + indirect BOGP workers
Total employment effect from BOGP (Y-2 to Y14), author calculations with Infometrics data
Jobs (average year)
Direct employment
357
Indirect employment
281
Induced employment
216
Total employment effect (direct + indirect + induced)
854
Productivity and wages compared to the rest of the local economy
Productivity is a measure of how efficiently economic activity is generated and is usually
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measured by how much GDP an economy generates for each worker. Measuring productivity
this way essentially tells us how effective an area is at turning the work of its people into
income. If we have higher productivity, then there are opportunities for higher-paying
employment.
The BOGP is estimated to on average contribute $1.0 million of GDP per
worker. GDP per worker for the BOGP is 7.5 times the current average
productivity across Inland Otago of $133,811 of GDP per jo
b5.
Estimated productivity using the updated PFS sits 3.2% higher than the estimate of $975,983 of
GDP per worker estimated in the initial PFS.
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These higher economic returns per worker for the BOGP will be reflected in higher wages.
The average wage for workers associated with the BOGP across the mining
years will be $140,300 a year, which is 104% higher than the average wage in
Inland Otago of $68,904 in 202
46.
Estimated average wages across the mining years using the updated PFS sit almost 10% higher
than the $127,900 average wage estimated using the initial PFS.
LGOIMA
5 Average productivity for Inland Otago was calculated from Infometrics Regional Economic Profiles.
6 Average wages for Inland Otago were calculated with data from Infometrics Regional Economic Profiles.
