133 Molesworth Street
PO Box 5013
Wellington 6140
New Zealand
T+64 4 496 2000
17 January 2025
Aaron Goodwin
By email: [FYI request #29370 email]
Ref:
H2024057283
Tēnā koe Aaron
Response to your request for official information
Thank you for your request under the Official Information Act 1982 (the Act) to the Ministry of
Health – Manatū Hauora (the Ministry) on 29 November 2024 for information regarding avian
influenza A (H5N1). Please find a response to each part of your request below.
What measures are in place to prevent the virus from crossing into New Zealand,
especially with regard to international biosecurity protocols?
Are there any planned or ongoing enhancements to border biosecurity in light of H5N1's
spread?
Currently there is no evidence of sustained human to human transmission of H5N1; therefore,
there are no current or planned measures to prevent the importation of the virus in humans (e.g.
travel restrictions or screening at the border). However, officials continue to monitor the situation
closely, both domestically and internationally.
The Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) is the lead agency for biosecurity measures related to
animals and animal products. Further information relating to H5N1 is available on MPI’s website
at
: www.mpi.govt.nz/biosecurity/pest-and-disease-threats-to-new-zealand/animal-disease-
threats-to-new-zealand/high-pathogenicity-avian-influenza/protecting-our-native-species-from-
avian-influenza/.
Are there public health campaigns or educational programmes planned to prepare the
population for the potential risks of H5N1?
What strategies are being developed to ensure the healthcare system can handle a surge
in cases resulting from a human-to-human transmission outbreak? The United States, for
example, has secured large-scale vaccine stockpiles and is conducting trials on rapid-
response mRNA platforms to address evolving strains of H5N1.
There are currently no public health or education campaigns for H5N1, as sustained
transmission of H5N1 between humans has not occurred. Please note that any public health
campaign for H5N1 in humans would be led by Health New Zealand – Te Whatu Ora (Health
NZ).
National guidelines to support public health professionals with the prevention and control of
notifiable diseases is available on Health NZ’s website at
: www.tewhatuora.govt.nz/for-health-
professionals/clinical-guidance/communicable-disease-control-manual. Please note, this is not
specific to H5N1.
I also refer you to the Ministry’s interim updated Pandemic Plan which is available at:
www.health.govt.nz/system/files/2024-07/interim_nz_pandemic_plan_v2.pdf. This plan sets out
the health system’s strategy and framework for actions in preparing and responding to future
pandemics. While the plan is focused on respiratory pathogens, such as influenza and COVID-
19, it can be adopted and applied (with adaptations as necessary) to any pandemic, regardless
of the nature of the pathogen and its severity.
What is the government’s assessment of H5N1's threat level in terms of its mutation
potential and interspecies spread, including emerging data on mammalian infections and
mutations that increase human transmissibility?
H5N1 has a greater geographical spread and is infecting a larger range of mammalian species
than earlier outbreaks. The increasing number of mammalian cases almost certainly reflects
greater opportunity for spil over infection from birds. Current evidence suggests H5N1 has not
acquired the ability for efficient airborne transmission in mammals, which is considered
necessary for it to cause a human pandemic. While multiple studies have found mutations in
H5N1 suggesting some degree of adaptation to mammals, several such mutations likely need to
coincide to substantially increase transmission.
Regarding risk to humans, the Institute of Environmental Science and Research (ESR)
completes assessments of the public health risk of H5N1 to the New Zealand human
population. The most recent update was completed on 28 May 2024, and summarised the
overall public health risk of H5N1 to New Zealand as
low. This is based on assessment of the
potentially high impact of the disease, very low likelihood of sustained human-to-human
transmission and very low likelihood of importation of a human case of H5N1.
What modelling, if any, has been conducted to forecast the impact of a human outbreak in
New Zealand?
Modelling of a potential influenza pandemic is underway at the Public Health Agency. However,
the work is in progress and therefore cannot be shared at this time. The Public Health Agency is
developing an SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) model, which enables us to run
a range of respiratory transmission pandemic scenarios with varying levels of severity and
compare the dif ering levels of hospitalisations and mortality. This allows us to model what the
first wave of a pandemic may look like, including a scenario of an influenza pathogen that novel
to humans. This work encompasses a scenario where the current HPAI strain mutates to
sustainably transmit between humans.
Is New Zealand stockpiling vaccines or antivirals specifically for H5N1?
If so, could you provide details on current stockpile levels and any recent procurement
efforts, particularly in comparison to other nations (e.g., the United States ordering 4.8
mil ion doses of H5N1 vaccine from CSL Seqirus)?
Health NZ has purchased 150,000 courses of H5N8 vaccine, which is the strain currently
considered to provide the best protection against H5 viruses. Health NZ also holds dif erent
influenza antivirals as part of the national reserve supply to support a response to an influenza
pandemic. However, commercial and national security sensitivities preclude us from providing
more specific information about antiviral stocks.
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What contingency plans are in place to rapidly scale up vaccine production or importation
if human-to-human transmission begins?
Health NZ has an agreement for the supply of influenza vaccines in the event of a pandemic.
Further information is available on the Auditor General’s website at:
www.oag.parliament.nz/2024/ppe-follow-up. Please refer to ‘
Attachment 2: What we were told in
2024’.
I trust this information fulfils your request. If you wish to discuss any aspect of your request with
us, including this decision, please feel free to contact the OIA Services Team on:
[email address].
Under section 28(3) of the Act, you have the right to ask the Ombudsman to review any
decisions made under this request. The Ombudsman may be contacted by email at:
[email address] or by calling 0800 802 602.
Please note that this response, with your personal details removed, may be published on the
Manatū Hauora website at:
www.health.govt.nz/about-ministry/information-releases/responses-
official-information-act-requests.
Nāku noa, nā
Dr Nicholas Jones
Director of Public Health
Public Health Agency | Te Pou Hauora Tūmatanui
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