1982
ACT
Avondale Housing Profile
KAINGA ORA
RELEASED UNDER THE
INFORMATION
NOVEMBER 2020
OFFICIAL
A V O N D A L E H O U S I N G P R O F I L E
1.6
Future Growth and Commercially Realistic Rate of Supply
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According to Statistics NZ population projections, New Lynn is expected
to grow the fastest between 2018 and 2043. We believe that this level of
growth has been assumed because it is supported by Unitary Plan zoning
and its place in Auckland’s centres hierarchy.
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The direction and scale of population growth can be highly uncertain
and can be completely flipped with substantive policy.
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There is likely to be an extra 5,250-5,700 people living in Avondale in
20 years’ time.
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The 2018 Census showed a ratio of 3.12 people per household. This
indicates need for 1,755 extra dwellings by 2038. This requires a pick up
on the rate of supply. Smaller future household sizes will lift this dwelling
requirement to 2,656 extra dwellings by 2038.
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We think that a commercially realistic rate of supply in Avondale is 2,000
to 3,000 dwellings over the 20 years to 2040. Realising the higher end
of this estimate would rely on the development potential provided by a
THE 1982
comprehensive, large scale and high-density development of the 36 ha
Racecourse site.
ACT
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Our market realistic estimate without the racecourse redevelopment
indicates 100 new dwellings per annum. This rate is below the 1,200
UNDER
that occurred during the 1960s, but ahead of the 800 per decade infill
era of 1990 - 2010. It is also double the circa 500 dwellings delivered
between 2010 -2020, so a significant step up.
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Amongst its residential zoned capacity, Avondale has 146 vacant sites
with an average size of 828 sqm. There are also 2,712 brownfield
opportunities.
RELEASED
INFORMATION
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The Unitary Plan provides additional planning enabled capacity potential
to absorb demand.
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The underlying effective demand for apartments was smaller than what it
was for terraces, which was smaller than houses. However, the relative
gap between available stock and underlying demand is far larger for
OFFICIAL apartments than it is for standalone houses.
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The weight of underlying demand means that it is probable that over half
of future housing supply in Avondale will be the apartment typology.
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Unit sizes are expected to be compact. This enables price points to be
affordable to the widest group of buyers.
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A V O N D A L E H O U S I N G P R O F I L E
Based on the effective demand analysis combined with the identified supply
potential enabled by both theoretical capacity (plan enabled) and practical
capacity (taking into consideration physical and market constraints such as
land value to property value ratios) we think that a commercially realistic rate
of supply in Avondale is around 2,000-3,000 dwellings over the 20 years to
2040.
Realising the higher end of this estimate would rely on the development
potential provided by a comprehensive, large scale and high-density
development of the 36 ha Racecourse site. If done well and able to attract
households across the full spectrum of the housing continuum, such a
development would likely be a game changer for the area, creating its own
defined market that would work in conjunction with the wider suburb but also
act independently in some respects.
Our market realistic estimate without the racecourse redevelopment indicates
100 new dwellings per annum. This rate is below the 1,200 that occurred
during the 1960s, but ahead of the 800 per decade infill era of 1990 -
1982
2010. It is also double the circa 500 dwellings delivered between 2010 -
THE
2020, so a significant step up.
ACT
This level of supply is supported by both land capacity and the effective
demand results. Analysis of vacant sites showed that there are 146 vacant
sites in Avondale, with an average size of 828 sqm. Depending on site
UNDER
attributes and zoning, an 800 sqm site could provide capacity for not only
terrace but also apartment typologies. We are aware of an example of this
size on Finch Street in Western Springs/Morningside zoned for THAB that
recently sold with development plans for 36 apartment units.
This demonstrates how much of a game changer the Unitary Plan has
INFORMATION
potential to be for an area. Without it, it would be impossible for Avondale to
RELEASED
achieve a material lift in supply approaching our forecast without a very high
density redevelopment of the Racecourse land. With the Unitary Plan, most
of Avondale has potential to turn a single storey stand alone dwelling into a
three storey or more building. This provides additional planning enabled
capacity potential to absorb demand in the existing residential zoned through
OFFICIAL vacant and brownfield redevelopment sites.
In total, 2,712 Avondale sites have a high land value component that
indicate current development potential. For many of these sites there is
opportunity for apartment development. This indicates that practical capacity
exists to realise the plan enabled theoretical capacity.
So far, apartment development in Avondale has been limited. There have
been few examples of success, and projects that have experienced quick
selldown have typically be located within a tight town centre radius.
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A V O N D A L E H O U S I N G P R O F I L E
Out of Scope
THE 1982
ACT
UNDER
RELEASED
INFORMATION
8.3
Avondale Racecourse, 22 Elm Street
The 36ha, 130-year-old racecourse owned by Avondale Jockey Club (AJC) is
zoned as a major recreational facility in the Unitary Plan. The racecourse is
popular with locals and the buildings are used as community facilities. Land
OFFICIAL fronting Ash Street is used for a popular Sunday market.
While we understand that future land use options (and their timing) on this
site are some way from being resolved the land size allows significant
opportunity for a master planned residential development. The scale
achievable means that this site is well suited to provide solutions across the
housing continuum, although carefully managed urban design and
development would be needed for a successful outcome that fulfils the needs
and wants of the spectrum of stakeholders from market to social housing.
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A V O N D A L E H O U S I N G P R O F I L E
Efficiency through standardised design and scale enables cost savings that
are not accessible to smaller developments. This means that the site has
potential to have a meaningful impact on the quality and quantity of
affordable housing in Avondale and beyond.
To optimise construction cost and aid affordability, we recommend most of
the development to be three storeys tall. This is commonly referred to as
walk-up style housing and is generally cheaper and easier to build than
traditional apartment blocks of four or more storeys tall. In some Auckland
locations the higher cost of a 4+ storey building can be hard to justify with
the scale benefits often not able to be realised until at least level eight.
This location could draw from a wide catchment area including existing
locals seeking low maintenance new build dwellings designed to suit their life
stage, Aucklanders priced out of their current suburb as well as those from
cheaper suburbs aspiring to the amenity and lifestyle of the area. This
means that a wide range of typologies and configurations could be required
to suit individual household needs.
THE 1982
Based on our market experience an indicative market feasible configuration
could be;
ACT
Apartments – 50%
One-bedroom units of 40 sqm, circa $350,000
UNDER
Two-bedroom units of 60 sqm, circa $525,000
Three-bedroom units of 80 sqm, circa $640,000
Terraces – 30%
INFORMATION
Two-bedroom terraces of 60 sqm, circa $550,000
RELEASED
Three-bedroom terraces of 90 sqm, circa $700,000
Houses – 20%
Three-bedroom houses of 80 sqm, circa $750,000
OFFICIAL Four-bedroom houses of 100 sqm, circa $850,000
Five-bedroom houses of 120 sqm, circa $950,000
Out of Scope
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