H2022017597 Response Letter.pdf

133 Molesworth Street
PO Box 5013
Wellington 6140
New Zealand
T+64 4 496 2000
19 December 2022
Chris McCashin
By email:  [FYI request #21232 email]
Ref:   H2022017597
Tēnā koe Chris
Response to your request for official information
Thank you for your request under the Official Information Act 1982 (the Act) to Manatū Hauora
(the Ministry of Health) on 25 November 2022 for information regarding deaths from COVID-19
in New Zealand. Please find a response to each part of your request below:
1. Three data sets as follows - total number of deaths from Covid-19 since the start of the
pandemic in the three different ways that the deaths have been recorded - eg the spike
in Omicron deaths 2022, would these be classed as deaths from Covid-19 based on
previous guidelines
Previously, the main way that COVID-19 deaths were identified and reported was based on the
criteria that someone died within 28 days of testing positive for COVID-19.
However, further work linking COVID-19 case data with mortality coding data allowed the
Ministry to shift to a more accurate metric of COVID-related deaths. This is where COVID-19
was identified as a contributing cause of death or the underlying cause of death on cause of
death certificates. This provides a clearer picture of the impact of COVID by excluding deaths
where the person had COVID-19 but COVID did not contribute to their death.
A breakdown of all announced deaths by both of these metrics is available publicly here:
www.health.govt.nz/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-current-
cases.
2. Formal memos & recommendations associated with the way Covid-19 deaths were
reported.  Signatories to this report and reasons.
Please find attached to this letter a memo titled: ‘Increase in contribution of COVID-19 to all-
cause mortality’ which has been identified within scope of this part of your request and is
released to you in full.
3. Total Deaths, causes of death and age of death broken down into ten-year age brackets
0-9, 10-19, 20-29 etc etc in excel format from 2016 up until the latest data.
Te Whatu Ora has a Mortality web tool that provides the most recent (2019) and historical
mortality data back to 1948. This web tool includes cause of death information.

Follow the link in the right-hand corner of the page to open the webtool:
www.tewhatuora.govt.nz/our-health-system/data-and-statistics/mortality-web-tool. This will be
updated with data to 2020 on 21 December 2022.
For all our other published mortality data and stats please use this page:
www.health.govt.nz/nz-health-statistics/health-statistics-and-data-sets/mortality-data-and-stats.
After the close of a calendar year, there is a 12 to 18 month process to assign cause of death
codes to the majority of deaths in that year. The clinical coding team at Te Whatu Ora reviews
the death certificate and health history of the deceased, to assign cause of death codes.
Approximately 10% of deaths are referred to the Coroner each year to determine cause. Deaths
which require a coronial inquiry can take 2-3 or more years for cause of death to be assigned.
We do not make mortality data available publicly until the majority of deaths have been
assigned a cause of death, so that the data we release is complete and accurate. The Chief
Coroner has noted delays in the time it is taking them to assign cause of death codes.
Te Whatu Ora publishes preliminary mortality statistics, which do not include injury-related
deaths information which are typically more influenced by coronial cases, in December each
year. The 2020 preliminary data will be published on 21 December 2022.
For data related to death volumes, but not cause of death: there is approximately a 6–8-week lag
between a death occurring and the fact of this death being available from Te Whatu Ora data.
The earliest fact of death information is available online from the Statistics New Zealand COVID
19 data portal at: www.stats.govt.nz/experimental/covid-19-data-portal.
Death volumes information is also published by Stats NZ here: www.stats.govt.nz/tools/stats-
infoshare. To view the statistics, you will need to select ‘Populations’ and then ‘Deaths'.
4. Total deaths attributed to the flu per annum 2016 up until todays date
Please see the table below regarding the number of deaths with an underlying cause of
influenza from 2016 to 2018:
Table 1: Influenza deaths
Year
Total number of deaths from
Influenza
2016
50
2017
121
2018
73
In December 2022, Manatū Hauora published some preliminary 2019 counts. According to
that data, the number of influenza deaths in 2019 was 201.
The statistics for 2020, 2021 and 2022 is not available yet. As mentioned above, after the
close of a calendar year, there is a 12-18 month process to assign cause of death codes to the
majority of deaths in that year.
I trust this information fulfils your request. Under section 28(3) of the Act, you have the right to
ask the Ombudsman to review any decisions made under this request. The Ombudsman may
be contacted by email at: [email address] or by calling 0800 802 602.
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Please note that this response, with your personal details removed, may be published on the
Manatū Hauora website at: www.health.govt.nz/about-ministry/information-releases/responses-
official-information-act-requests.

Nāku noa, nā

Dave Henderson
Interim Group Manager, Intelligence, Surveillance and Knowledge
Public Health Agency | Te Pou Hauora Tūmatanui

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link to page 4 link to page 4

Memo
Increase in contribution of COVID-19 to al -cause mortality
Date:
3 August 2022
To:
Dr Diana Sarfati, Director-General of Health
1982
Dr Andrew Old, Deputy Director-General, Public Health Agency  ACT
Copy to:
Dawn Kelly, Principal Advisor COVID-19, Office of the Director-General of Health
Clare Possenniskie, Manager Office of the Deputy Director-General
From:
Dave Henderson, Acting Lead Intelligence, Surveil ance and Knowledge, Public
Health Agency, Manatū Hauora
For your:
Information
INFORMATION
Purpose of report
1
This memo provides information on the recent increase in deaths from COVID-19 relative to
all-cause mortality.
OFFICIAL
Background and context  THE
2
New Zealand is currently experiencing a sharp increase in deaths attributed to COVID-19. This
is of national public interest and the New Zealand Herald aims to publish an article on this
trend.
UNDER
3
A previous increase in COVID-19 related deaths was observed in March/April 2022. Many
public health measures have since been removed or are no longer enforced and removal of
border restrictions has resulted in increased movement international y and increases in
COVID-19 cases domestically.
RELEASED
Death reporting in New Zealand
General information and definitions
4
Reporting on deaths with COVID-19 is included in regular reporting released by the Public
Health Association New Zealand’s (PHANZ) Intelligence and Analytics team, mainly the daily
Situational Report (SitRep) and Trends and Insights (T&I) report as well as in information
released on the Ministry of Health website1 and GitHub2 page.
1 Refer to COVID-19: Current cases | Ministry of Health NZ
2 Refer to https://github.com/minhealthnz/nz-covid-data/blob/main/cases/weekly-deaths.csv
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5
While PHANZ at Manatū Hauora releases these figures on deaths with COVID-19 regularly,
the authority for official mortality figures remains with Statistics New Zealand (Stats NZ).
These figures take some time to finalise; the most recent week for which figures are available
is the 17th of July.
6
Table 1 below provides the official definitions used to describe COVID-19 related deaths in
the data visualisations included in this memo. This terminology aligns with PHANZ regular
reporting for al  definitions except those where ambiguity might exist when making
comparisons to deaths of people who did not have COVID:
1982

Table 1: Mortality definitions

ACT
Term
Definition
COVID-19 attributed
Deaths where COVID-19 was the underlying or a
contributory cause of death.
COVID-19 incidental
Deaths occurring within 28 days of a positive test
where COVID-19 was deemed not to be a cause of
death.
Had COVID-19, but cause of death unavailable
Deaths of COVID-19 cases where i
INFORMATION  nformation on
cause of death from death certificate is not yet
available.
All deaths with COVID-19
Deaths occurring within 28 days of a positive test
and deaths occurring more than 28 days after a
positive test that are still potentially due to COVID-
OFFICIAL
19.

THE
Trends observed in COVID-19 related deaths
7
Figure 1 shows an increase in deaths beginning in early March and reaching one peak in late
March. This was fol owed by a steady decline in deaths.
UNDER
8
However, in early June 2022, deaths began to steadily increase initially before sharply
increasing in early July to levels exceeding those observed in March/April. Data for COVID-19
deaths is available up to 31 July but data for non-COVID-19 deaths is only available to 17
July, therefore the contribution of COVID-19 to overal  deaths is only available up to this
point. Currently, the highest percentage for deaths attributed to COVID-19 is at 14.2% of all
deaths for the week
RELEASED  ending 17 July (Figure 2).
9
At this stage, it is unclear when the peak wil  occur and based on current trends, it is likely
deaths attributed to COVID-19 wil  continue to increase. The absolute numbers for COVID-19
related deaths have continued to increase for the weeks ending 24th and 31st July (Figure 1).
It is likely, when data for non-COVID deaths is available for these weeks, that this will
correspond COVID-related deaths accounting for an increasing percentage of al  deaths.
10  Figure 2 shows the percentage of total deaths by week separating deaths where the
deceased had COVID-19, deaths attributed to COVID-19, deaths incidental to COVID-19 and
deaths where the cause of death is currently unknown, but the deceased had COVID-19. Both
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the proportion of deaths with COVID-19 and deaths attributed to COVID-19 have significantly
increased since mid-June and are currently at record levels.

Figure 1: Number of deaths from al causes from 1 March 2022 to 31 July 2022
1982
ACT
INFORMATION
OFFICIAL
Figure 2: Percentage of al weekly deaths associated with COVID-19 from 1 March 2022
THE
to 17 July 2022

UNDER
RELEASED
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Recommendations
It is recommended that you:
1.  Note
The analysis on deaths attributed to COVID-19 in New Zealand
Noted
where an increase in deaths is currently being observed.

1982

Signature __________________________________
Date:
ACT
Dave Henderson
Acting Lead Intel igence Surveil ance & Knowledge
Public Health Agency
Manatū Hauora

INFORMATION

Signature __________________________________
Date:
Dr Andrew Old
Deputy Director-General of Health
Public Health Agency
OFFICIAL
Manatū Hauora
THE

UNDER
Signature ___________________________________________________
Date:
Dr Diana Sarfati
Te Tumu Whakarae mō te Hauora
Director-General of Health

RELEASED

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