Released by
Director-General of Security
The fol owing is summarised information from a Combined Threat Assessment Group (CTAG)
Threat Insight. Where possible, excerpts of the original document have been used. Some details
are withheld under section 6(a) of the Official Information Act 1982 as release would prejudice
national security.
Threat Insight: Afghan Evacuation: Violent Extremism Threat
Implications for New Zealand
Report Date: 1 September 2021
Report No: 21-126-TI
This product provides an assessment of the potential impact of the evacuation of
Afghan nationals on the domestic terrorism threat environment, specific to the
assessed backgrounds of the evacuees, and domestic violent extremists’ reaction to
the evacuation. It does not assess threats from foreign interference, espionage or
criminality.
CTAG has low confidence in its assessments. This product was prepared in
consultation with the New Zealand Security Intelligence Service (NZSIS) and New
Zealand Defence Intelligence (NZDI).
Key judgments
New Zealand’s evacuee stream is highly likely to include individuals from the Hazara,
Tajik, and Pashtun ethnic groups.
We cannot discount the possibility that individuals within New Zealand’s evacuee
stream have current or historical connections to violent extremist groups.
There is no indication that violent extremist groups of any ideology have the intent to
deliberately penetrate New Zealand’s evacuee stream.
There is currently no change to the National Terrorism Threat Level, which remains at
MEDIUM; terrorist attack is assessed as feasible and could wel occur.
There is currently no indication of a specific, credible violent extremist threat to New
Zealand or New Zealand interests abroad in relation to the evacuation programme.
There is a realistic possibility that historic Afghan sectarian or ethnic conflicts could
manifest in the evacuee population and impact of New Zealand’s terrorism threat
environment over the long-term.
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