Ode Baganantha
From:
s 9(2)(a)
@nbconsulting.co.nz>
Sent:
Tuesday, 9 February 2021 3:25 PM
To:
Andrew Ford; Andrew Wharton
Cc:
David Dunlop; s 9(2)(a)
Subject:
RE: LGWM: reconciling key population figures
Thanks gents. Appreciate the help.
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Kind regards, s
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From: Andrew Ford <[email address]>
Sent: Tuesday, 9 February 2021 3:20 PM
To: Andrew Wharton <[email address]>
Cc: s 9(2)(a)
@nbconsulting.co.nz>; David Dunlop <[email address]>; s 9(2)(a)
Information
@nbconsulting.co.nz>
Subject: RE: LGWM: reconciling key population figures
All,
Andrew and myself discussed the population / jobs section – as a result I have updated the section in the report with
the following tables.
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Any questions, please phone myself / Andrew. The crux of the story is that we are now forecasting more growth
than we did for the PBC; the revised working assumptions are derived from P4G and WRGF and expressed as a
the
range, acknowledging the fact that we are forecasting 30 yr into the future and a lot could change
Andy
Revised working
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Population
PBC Assumption (30 year growth)
assumptions (30 year
growth)
Wellington Region
100,000 to 150,000
150,000 to 200,000
Wellington City
50,000 to 80,000
60,000 to 80,000
Central city and inner—city
18,000 to 28,000
20,000 to 25,000
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suburbs5
Western, southern, and eastern
8,000 to 18,000
19,000 to 27,000
suburbs
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Northern suburbs
24,000 to 34,000
21,000 to 28,000
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Revised working
PBC Assumption (30
Jobs
assumptions (30 year
year growth)
growth)
Wellington Region
50,000 — 75,000
75,000 — 100,000
Central City
15,000 – 32,000
“Primary employment centre”
From: Andrew Wharton <[email address]>
Sent: Tuesday, 9 February 2021 2:32 PM
To: Andrew Ford <[email address]>
Cc: s 9(2)(a)
@nbconsulting.co.nz>; David Dunlop <[email address]>; s 9(2)(a)
@nbconsulting.co.nz>
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Subject: RE: LGWM: reconciling key population figures
Hi Andy,
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Let’s discuss when you’re free – I’ve left you a phone message too. In the meantime here’s my sources, along with
screenshots from the documents themselves. Do your “modelled” numbers refer to the Sense Partners population
projections report due imminently? We’re looking forward to seeing their projections. I understand you are the
client for the regional data, so you may have an early version already.
If you want to reduce the emphasis on the Wellington Regional Growth Framework numbers, we could use the
Citywide Estimated Growth Distribution Figures source (the latest P4G numbers) if they aren’t too different from
what comes through from Sense Partners, and below this use
Diagram 1: a growth corridor view of the Future
Development Areas for context about how this population growth links into the wider regional story. Though if the
Information
diagram is used, it needs to have a note that this is a draft. The local government, central government and iwi
partners in the area are currently going through a process to endorse the Draft Framework, followed by taking it to
our communities for feedback.
I hope this helps given the end‐of‐today deadline.
Andrew
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The PBC numbers I took from page 7 of the Programme Business Case:
the
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the
The draft WRGF population numbers come from the Draft Framework Report page 3 and the diagram on page 4:
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the
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The Planning for Growth Figures come from the Citywide Estimated Growth Distribution Figures 25/09/2020, pages
4 and 5 :
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the
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Andrew Wharton
Principal Advisor Planning (LGWM) | City Design and Place Planning | Wellington City Council
s 9(2)(a)
From: s 9(2)(a)
@nbconsulting.co.nz>
Official
Sent: 09 February 2021 10:40 AM
To: Andrew Ford <[email address]>; Andrew Wharton <[email address]>
Cc: [email address]; s 9(2)(a)
@nbconsulting.co.nz>
the
Subject: LGWM: reconciling key population figures
Hi gents,
See the comments below from Andy F re the population numbers that we are using the Strategic
Context technical working paper (and mirrored in the Land Use & Urban Development paper). At
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the moment we have inconsistencies in terms of the population numbers and demographics that
are being used and the story being told.
To resolve these issues, could the two of you please reconcile the population numbers and
demographics that we are to use in the LGWM technical reports. I need the reconciliation done
by close of play today to meet the deliverable timeframes for the technical papers.
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Thanks in advance. I look forward to receiving confirmation of the population number of
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demographics that we are to use. If there are any issues in arriving at a reconciled position that
blows out the timeframes, please let me know.
the
Kind regards, s
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s 9(2)(a)
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