1982
Act
ECONOMICS
Presentation by Daniel e Gatland
Information
30 November 2020
Official
the
under
Released
1982
Methodology
Act
• Monetised Benefits and Costs Manual
• 2019 values of time
• 4% discount rate, 40-year evaluation period
Information
• Sensitivity tests on evaluation period
Official
the
under
Released
1982
Methodology
Act
• Costs: as per previous estimates
• Road user impacts: AIMSUN model extracts
• Public transport benefit: MRCagney runtime model (physics-based, Monte Carlo
Information
model)
• Pedestrian benefits: interim guidance on Urban Amenity in Pedestrian Environments
Official
the
under
Released
1982
Key assumptions – road user impacts
Act
• AIMSUN total travel time for:
• City centre area
Information
• Private vehicles (not trucks)
• Weekdays (including offpeak), but not weekends
• No growth in vehicle demand over timeOfficial
• No mode shift in the options
• We expect mode shift impacts would have a significant effect on vehicle impacts in options
the
2/3
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Released
1982
Key assumptions – public transport impacts
Act
• MRCagney’s public transport runtime model
• Physics-based Monte Carlo model
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• Variability only from signalised intersections
• Weekdays, but not evenings or weekends
• Public transport demand grows at 1.6% per year, on average
Official
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Released
1982
Key assumptions – pedestrian impacts Act
• Demands from the Beca Active Modes Model
• Currently some uncertainties around these demand estimates
• New Waka Kotahi guidance on pedestrians’ willingness to pay for a
Information menity
improvements
• Weekdays, but not evenings or weekends
• Pedestrian demand grows at 1.6% per year, on average
Official
• Benefits not yet included:
the
• Reduction in adjacent traffic volumes
• Widening crowded footpaths
under
Released
1982
Evaluation outcomes – present value impacts
Act
Benefit
Option 1
Option 2
Option 3 Comments
($m)
($m)
($m)
Car travel time
-$15 - -$13
-$86 - -$76
-$86 - -$76 • Expect mode shift impacts to materially reduce
impact
vehicle demand in options 2/3
Information
Public transport
$25
$37
$30 • Variability in dwel times and from vehicle and
travel time benefit
other buses excluded
Public transport
$13
$21
$23 • Variability in dwel times and from vehicle and
other buses excluded
reliability benefit
Official
Pedestrian realm
•
Excludes value of reduced adjacent traffic
$4.0 - $5.0
$4.0 - $14
$65 - $301
volumes and widening crowded footpaths
benefits
•
Uses ‘Beca’ demands
the
Pedestrian travel
$3.9 - $4.6
$7.2 - $8.9
$16 - $19 • Assumes pedestrian green phase is 12 seconds
time benefits
•
Uses ‘Beca’ demands
Total
$31 - $36
-$17 - $5.0
$48 - $297
under
Released
1982
Evaluation outcomes – benefit-cost ratio Act
Benefit
Option 1
Option 2
Option 3
($m)
($m)
($m)
Costs
Total costs
$14 - $21
$20 - $31
$50 - $76
Information
Include all
Total benefits
$31 - $36
-$17 - $5 $48 - $297
benefits
Benefit-cost ratio
1.5 - 2.5 -0.55 - 0.25
0.63 – 5.9
Official
Exclude all traffic Total benefits
$46 - $48
$69 - $81 $134 - $373
impacts
Benefit-cost ratio
2.2 – 3.3
2.3 – 4.0
1.8 – 7.5
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Released
1982
Comments – main caveats
Act
Offpeak impacts for traffic are estimated, but for pedestrians and public transport are not
Mode shift: Aimsun model is very sensitive to changes. Mode shift impacts, when model ed, are expected to
have a significant effect on traffic impacts particularly in options 2/3
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‘Mixing and matching’ of options on different sections could be significant
Impact of adjacent vehicle traffic, loading zones and other buses have not been incorporated into the public
transport impacts
Official
Pedestrian demands are being investigated
Some pedestrian impacts have not yet been includ
the ed
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Released
1982
Comments
Act
• Biggest uncertainties caused by:
• Traffic impacts
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• Values of pedestrian realm benefits
Official
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Released
1982
Act
Information
Official
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Released
