23 April 2020
Tom Dickie [FYI request #12546 email]
Thank you for email of the 28 March 2020 to the Ministry of Education requesting the following
1. How does the MoE, or others on the MoE's behalf, monitor the demographic profiles
within School neighbourhood catchment areas, particularly in relation to pupil age
profiles, and how is this data utilised to identify the optimum location of Schools now and
in the future in relation to future anticipated demographic trends ?
2. How does the MoE, or others on the MoE's behalf, utilise the information from the
methodology described in Question 1 to plan the location and development of new
Schools and the redevelopment of existing Schools?
3. If the methodology described in Question 1 is not adopted what alternative methodology
or methodologies are adopted, by the MoE, or others on behalf of the MoE, if any?
4. If 'others on behalf of the MoE' implement methodologies as described above, who are
Your request has been considered under the Official Information Act 1982.
The Ministry of Education is responsible for ensuring there is an appropriate network of state
and state-integrated schools in line with the demand and within the requirements set by
Legislation and by the Government. Forecast demand for new schools and roll growth
classrooms for high growth areas across New Zealand are captured in the National Education
Growth Plan (NEGP) to 2030.
The NEGP sets out the Government’s approach to manage, maintain and grow the schooling
network in response to current and forecast increases in the school age population. The NEGP
provides forecast demand in specific ‘high growth’ catchments across New Zealand. The 39
catchment plans in the NEGP include 20 across the Auckland region and 19 elsewhere across
New Zealand. Combined, these catchment plans forecast an additional 100,000 new student
places to 2030.
A catchment profile and planning methodology was developed for the NEGP – the New
Zealand Catchment Planning Model (NZCPM) The model compares the forecast student
place demand with the space available in schools (supply), including approved new space, to
identify the potential future requirement for additional student places.
The NZCPM integrates Statistics New Zealand and Ministry of Education data with insights
and information from the education sector, local authorities and from across government
agencies, as well as current and projected housing development activity at a catchment level.
The NEGP provides options for managing growth in the short to medium term, including a
range of interventions at a regional and catchment level, such as enrolment schemes and
property solutions where demand exceeds current property capacity.
Wellington, National office, Mātauranga House, 33 Bowen Street, Wellington 6011
PO Box 1666, Wellington 6140 Phone: +64 4 463 8000 Fax: +64 4 463 8001
We regularly assess the emerging and changing growth and demand profiles in catchments
across the high growth regions, including the lead times for major infrastructure (private and
public). This allows us to dynamically adjust the required timing of, and forecast demand for,
additional student places.
For schooling areas across NZ that are not growing and are outside of the NEGP, we
develop catchment plans and planning at the local level. The Ministry is progressing work on
the National Education Network Plan which extends the catchment planning framework of
the NEGP across all regions and areas.
The full NEGP can be found on our website: https://education.govt.nz/new-zealands-network-
Thank you again for your email. You have the right to ask an Ombudsman to review this
decision. You can do this by writing to [email address]
or Office of the
Ombudsman, PO Box 10152, Wellington 6143.
Katrina Casey Deputy Secretary
Sector Enablement and Support