Silverdale School – Zone Amendment Analysis, June 2015
Silverdale School is located in an area of significant population growth. Large residential developments, such as
Millwater, Weiti and areas to the west of the motorway, will put significant roll pressure on Silverdale School. The
school’s site is constrained with a planned eight classroom block likely to fill the available building platform. After
this block is complete Silverdale School will have a capacity of around 7061 student spaces.
This report will help aid Silverdale School’s decisions around possible enrolment scheme amendments.
Current Status
Within the home zone there are a total of 845 Year 1-8 students of which 428 attend Silverdale School. This is
a market share of 50.6%. It should be noted that the market share will fluctuate significantly until development
in the area is complete.
The current capacity of Silverdale School is 522 and the planned eight classroom block will increase the
1982
capacity to around 706 students.
Act
Millwater Development
The Millwater development, at completion, will have approximately 3000 houses which will be home to around 9000
people. As of May 2015, 900 houses were occupied.
Information
Table 1 shows the total school aged population living in the Millwater area, as of March 2015, and compares it with the
current number of houses occupied. It uses the current student to household ratio to project how many additional
students could come out of the Millwater development.
Official
It should be noted that student per household ratio is lower than the Ministry’s usual methodology2. The Ministry’s
methodology assumes 18% of the total population is school aged whereas, in Millwater, only 15% of the population is
the
school aged.
As of March 2015, there were 407 Year 1-13 students living in Millwater. Compared to the 900 occupied houses, this
under
equates to around 0.45 students per household. Using the same student to household ratio, the 2100 houses yet to be
occupied could generate an additional 950 students; 1357 in total.
Table 1: Millwater Student to Household Ratio
MOE Usual
Released
Current
Methodology
Millwater Homes - Existing
900
900
Millwater Students - Existing
407
486
Students per household
0.45
0.54
Millwater Homes - Additional
2100
2100
Millwater Students - Possible
950
1134
Total Millwater Homes
3000
3000
Total Possible Students
1357
1620
Table 2 shows the breakdown of current and projected students by year level. Commentary for Table 2 focuses on the
Year 1-8 population only.
In Millwater, there are currently 222 Year 1-6 students and 64 Year 7-8 students. This could increase to 740 and 213,
respectively, once the development is complete.
If the market share of Silverdale School stabilised at 70% and remained a Year 1-8 school, just from Millwater, the
school could have a roll of 667 students.
Table 2: Current and Projected Millwater School Aged Population by year level
Projected
Projected
Current
Current
Proportion
Additional
Total
Year Level
Students
of Total
Students
Students
1
31
8%
72
103
2
41
10%
96
137
3
50
12%
117
167
4
46
11%
107
153
5
29
7%
68
97
6
25
6%
58
83
Total Y1-6
222
55%
518
740
7
28
7%
65
93
1982
8
36
9%
84
120
Total Y7-8
64
16%
149
213
Act
9
27
7%
63
90
10
24
6%
56
80
11
30
7%
70
100
12
20
5%
47
67
13
20
5%
47
67
Information
Total Y9-13
121
30%
282
403
Total
407
100%
950
1357
Official
2 Total dwelling yield multiplied by three equals total population – 10% of the total population is assumed to be 5-12
the
year olds (Year 1-8) and 8% of the total population is assumed to be 13-17 year olds (Year 9-13).
under
Released
Spur Road/Duck Creek Road/Stillwater Area (Silverdale South)
Figure 3 shows the Silverdale South area and Table 3 shows students attending Silverdale School and living in
Silverdale South as of March 2015.
In March 2015, 108 students were attending Silverdale School from Silverdale South.
Table 3: Students Attending Silverdale School and Living in Silverdale South, March 2015
Current Year Level
Student Count
1
9
2
13
3
16
4
11
5
11
6
22
7
15
8
11
Total
108
Options
The effect each option could have on Silverdale School’s roll is outlined below. The total roll is compared to the
1982
planned capacity of 706 students. It has also been assumed that the school will capture a 70% market share from the
Millwater development. It should be noted that the options with no home zone amendment component
do not include
Act
the effect of planned developments in the Silverdale South area.
Status Quo
If Silverdale School remains a Year 1-8 school and keeps its current enrolment scheme home zone, the roll could
reach 947 students. This would create a
deficit of 241 student spaces.
Information
Table 4: Status Quo
In Zone Area
Projected Roll
Official
70% of Millwater
667
Silverdale South
108
the
Rest of Zone
172
Total Roll
947
under
Remain Year 1-8, home zone amendment
If Silverdale School remains a Year 1-8 school but amends its home zone to exclude Silverdale South, the roll could
reach 819 students. This would create a
deficit of 133 student spaces.
Released
Table 6: Remain Year 1-8, home zone amendment
In Zone Area
Projected Roll
70% of Millwater
667
Silverdale South
0
Rest of Zone
172
Total Roll
839