Silverdale School – Roll Projections
Scenario 1: Silverdale School remains Year 1-8
Between 2011 and 2015, on average the Year 1 roll increased by 14 students each year. The
projections assume the Year 1 roll will follow this trend and increase by 14 students each year.
Historical retention rates have been used for Years 2-8.
If Silverdale School remains a Year 1-8 school, the roll of the school will continue to grow with
projections showing a roll of over 1000 students by 2021.
October
Y 1
Y 2
Y 3
Y 4
Y 5
Y 6
Y 7
Y 8
Total
2011
48
48
45
41
43
32
26
27
310
2012
56
48
54
52
43
44
26
29
352
2013
66
58
54
69
60
51
45
24
427
2014
82
70
65
65
76
71
51
37
517
2015
104
74
74
72
69
74
53
48
568
Projected 2016
118
87
78
75
81
69
51
46
605
Projected 2017
132
110
91
85
82
85
55
47
687
Projected 2018
146
123
116
99
92
86
68
50
780
1982
Projected 2019
160
136
129
126
108
96
69
63
887
Projected 2020
174
150
143
140
137
113
77
64
998 Act
Projected 2021
188
162
158
156
152
143
91
71
1,121
Scenario 2: Silverdale School becomes Year 1-6
Between 2011 and 2015, on average the Year 1 roll increased by 14 students each year. The
Information
projections assume the Year 1 roll will follow this trend and increase by 14 students each year.
Historical retention rates have been used for Years 2-6.
Official
If Silverdale School becomes a Year 1-6 school, the roll will continue to grow but at a slower rate
shown in Scenario 1. It is projected the roll will r
the each 959 students by October 2021.
October
Y 1
Y 2
Y 3
Y 4
Y 5
Y 6
Y 7
Y 8
Total
under
2011
48
48
45
41
43
32
26
27
310
2012
56
48
54
52
43
44
26
29
352
2013
66
58
54
69
60
51
45
24
427
2014
82
70
65
65
76
71
51
37
517
2015
104
74
74
72
69
74
53
48
568
Released
Projected 2016
118
87
78
75
81
69
51
46
605
Projected 2017
132
110
91
85
82
85
0
47
632
Projected 2018
146
123
116
99
92
86
0
0
662
Projected 2019
160
136
129
126
108
96
0
0
755
Projected 2020
174
150
143
140
137
113
0
0
857
Projected 2021
188
162
158
156
152
143
0
0
959