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Read our economic analysis on the

freshwater proposals

Good afternoon,

Today we are releasing our economic analysis on the proposed Essential Freshwater package. This will form part of DairyNZ’s full submission, which we will share with you when we submit it to Government tomorrow.

You already have all the key information we have focused on, with this comprehensive economic analysis being the final component. We know a number of you have been waiting on this to inform your own submission.

Following the Government’s proposed freshwater regulations, DairyNZ initiated three studies into the potential economic effects of the proposal – modelling on-farm impacts; the community impacts; as well as analysing the added effects of the proposed climate change policies.

These economic studies further support the technical research completed by DairyNZ, which analysed the likely improvements in water quality associated with the proposal. We believe better options are available to improve and protect ecosystem health, which is outlined in our submission.

This thorough, credible economic and technical analysis has been a massive process in the limited time set out by Government. We’ve worked around the clock to prioritise getting this information to you as soon as possible.

Key points from our economic analysis:

DairyNZ’s economic modelling shows the proposed Essential Freshwater package could significantly harm New Zealand’s dairy sector and the wider national economy – by 2050, it could lead to a fall in our GDP of $6 billion.
The proposal would result in significant declines in milk production and is a serious threat to the international competitiveness of New Zealand’s dairy sector.
The economic analysis forecasts that by 2050 total milk production will fall by 24 percent and all exports by 5.2 percent or $8.1 billion.
With the Zero Carbon Bill and its assumed reductions in methane considered alongside the Essential Freshwater reforms, the forecast showed an additional $1 billion loss ($7 billion) in GDP and another 4 percent reduction in milk production (28 percent).
Proposed nutrient limits would impose a significant financial burden on the dairy sector. These limits – broadscale introduction of phosphorus and nitrogen leaching reductions in monitored catchments – are based on overly simplistic relationships and not supported by robust science.
Southland, Taranaki, Marlborough and West Coast are likely to be most negatively impacted. By 2050, GDP could fall in Southland by up to 3.6 percent; Taranaki by up to 2.9 percent; Marlborough by up to 3.2 percent and West Coast by up to 2.9 percent.
Less milk means 15-20 percent less jobs and reduced competitiveness in global markets.

Read our media release

We’ve included key economic points in our submission template.

Make your submission now

The template incorporates DairyNZ’s initial position on the Government’s proposals and now also includes key economic points which will be part of DairyNZ’s overall submission.

The template is a good basis for your submission but we encourage you to add personal aspects to you and your farm business.

Submissions are due tomorrow (October 31).

View the economic reports at dairynz.co.nz/freshwater.

Mycoplasma bovis report online

Finally, there has also been an announcement today regarding Mycoplasma bovis and a Technical Advisory Group report – it shows the programme is making multiple changes to ensure we all have the best chance of getting rid of this disease from New Zealand.

Regards,

Jim van der Poel

Chair

DairyNZ

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